Lagos — That public rally, whose organisers are punching the air, with beautiful and well laid out popular logic; the press conference, where that respectable figure has laid the cards on the table so effortlessly; the agitation by ethnic groups demanding that something must happen or; the solidarity visits, where supposed leaders and interest groups speak passionately about nation-building; the paid public announcement in the media stating a clear position and the seemingly innocuous interviews from notable figures, which make bold headlines, may not be as selfless as they seem or meant for just public good as people are meant to believe.

Most of them are either contrived as a means for some individuals to advance their advantages on the political chessboard or some people are actually smiling to the banks, while the uninitiated are still hailing them for their efforts in public service. It is all part of a well-oiled pattern of the doctrine "politics for politics, all for politics."

This, no doubt, appears the lot of Nigeria in the seemingly unending President Umaru Yar'Adua saga. Since it started about three months ago, events shaping it, have not only continued to change at the most unexpected points, but at each turn, opened new battle fronts, in what seems to have become a broad and dangerous war.

The Other Side Of A Coup

The build up had been unmistakable. Few people seemed to have been left in doubt at the direction things were going. Some were sure it would be the last episode of the enduring drama of the absurd. That was Wednesday, March 3. It was a day Nigerians had expected things to get to a head following the momentum that had been achieved by Goodluck Jonathan, since he was elevated to his present Acting President position by the National Assembly. On that day, many had been sure that the Executive Council of the Federation (EXCOF), would have begun the much-advertised process to eventually get President Umaru Yar'Adua out of the way and hand over absolute executive powers to Jonathan as a substantive President. But, like a balloon pierced with a pin, the entire upsurge, has since been deflated, leaving in its trail a huge disappointment in many quarters.

It came to pass that the Nigerian factor was again called in to settle the matter. Of course, like many happenings in the country, all is again left to conjecture. With resentment rising over the mystery surrounding Yar'Adua's return to the country on February 27, a large session of the Nigerian public had expected the EXCOF and the National Assembly (NASS) to take far reaching measures against the ailing President. Different accounts have since emerged on why this did not happen.

One of them was the reported negotiation between the Yar'Adua camp in the corridors of power with Jonathan's loyalists. The EXCOF, some caucuses of NASS, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Governors' Forum, led by Bukola Saraki, Kwara State helmsman, were part of the negotiations. In the end, it was agreed that Jonathan would receive maximum support during his acting presidency while he would terminate every move intended to unseat Yar'Adua. Thus what was expected to be a coup by Jonathan's loyalists to secure their principal as substantive President did not materialise. It did, however, resolve the growing tension in Abuja as well as expose the overwhelming influence which state governors have begun to exercise in national affairs since 2007.

Skirmishes In Abuja

The controversial return of the ailing President soon after Jonathan assumed powers was read in different circles as attempts by the President's men to undermine the decision taken by the Senate. Cloudy as the situation was, Jonathan's aide could not make up their minds on whether to differ to Yar'Adua's aides concerning who was to chair the first EXCOF meeting after the supposed return of Yar'Adua. Neither Yar'Adua nor Jonathan did. The meeting was postponed, perhaps as the wisest decision that could have emerged under the vague circumstances.

Days after the postponed EXCOF meeting, anxiety continued to envelop the country as Nigerians were left to debate what was possibly going to happen in Abuja. What promised to be an end game turned out empty muscle flexing by Yar'Adua's men as the situation soon became clear: Yar'Adua was still very ill and could not reverse the Senate's decision immediately. Then a new concern appeared to have developed therefrom - the possibility of a backlash from Jonathan's camp against those who had shown opposition to him.

Among the EXCOF the fear of a cabinet reshuffle intended to remove Yar'Adua's men was very strong. There followed moves by Jonathan's men to impel the then shaky EXCOF to commence an inquiry into the state of health of the President and determine his capacity to continue in office.

From all indications, the possibility of an anti-Yar'Adua action by the EXCOF was imminent. Two reasons made the anticipation quite germane: the EXCOF was still smarting from the humiliating treatment members got from Yar'Adua's men who waited for the Ojo Maduekwe-led delegation to come to Saudi Arabia and then remove the President without notifying them. Some members of the delegation had felt righteously slighted. Secondly, when it became clear that Yar'Adua was in no shape to resume work, his loyalists in the EXCOF began to get jittery on account of the role they had played.

At the National Assembly, members of the National Interest Group (NIG) had intensified their campaign for the impeachment of the President. Indeed, their campaign was receiving support from different sections who were miffed that the President had been kept incommunicado, and that his wife, Turai Yar'Adua and other members of the branded cabal were keeping away vital information from the EXCOF, the NASS, and the general public.

The Emerging Octopus Intervenes

Not very many Nigerians knew that the Governors Forum had become an indispensable force in the evolving power mutations in Nigeria, but the role which it played during the President's absence was noteworthy, but that was less overwhelming, in the views of commentators, when compared to their last minute intervention last week. Just before the House of Representatives met, the ruling PDP had agreed to forestall any impeachment moves against the President. The party's decision is believed not only to be in harmony with the governors' body, but was actually propelled by it.

The action of the state chief executives, was predicated on a number of reason, not the least, personal consideration.

It is believed that the move was to stop Jonathan from taking steps that were inimical to the interests of pro-Yar'Adua power bloc, especially the rumoured plan to relieve the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Faraida Waziri, of her job among. That move, had confirmed the signal that even if Jonathan was not part of it, some of his advisers were determined to use him to advance their personal interests. Waziri's sack and the touted return of her predecessor to the anti-graft saddle, was seen as an agenda of former President, Olusegun Obasanjo, who, many believe is still bent on settling old scores. Thus jolted Yar'Adua loyalists had to intensify their own effort to preempt the move, which they did successfully.

However, another point was the international dimension that was introduced in the matter. Daily Independent reliably gathered that the comments of the international community on the saga also gave some impetus for the plot against Yar'Adua to be aborted. In quick successions, America and Britain sent strongly-worded messages interpreted as direct hit on the President's men. This was followed by the coming of some key elements from the two countries. From Britain came former Prime Minister, Tony Blair, while his American counterpart, George W. Bush and his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, were on hand to promote, what was seen as a Western agenda. Though the event they attended was supposedly private, but their messages at the main event itself and at other fora were unmistakable. Soon, talks of their interest in anti-corruption and good governance, seen as an euphemism for extending their primordial campaigns against certain Nigerian elements in collaboration with their local counterparts started emerging.

According to reports, the deal was struck at a meeting the cabal held with National Assembly (NASS) top guns, EXCOF representatives, some top shots of the PDP and representatives of the Governors Forum where the President's men got NASS and EXCOF to pledge that Yar'Adua would neither be impeached nor be declared incapacitated. The agreement included the provision that Jonathan would neither hurt their interests nor seek vendetta against persons suspected to be loyal to the ailing President.

That agreement which was reached on Monday night - a day to NASS plenary and 48 hours to the EXCOF meeting, partly led to the cancellation of the planned dissolution of the EXCOF, and ended expectations of the worst coming to Yar'Adua. Rather than take steps to end the Yar'Adua Presidency, EXCOF, instead, agreed to keep the issue off the table and warned members, particularly vocal Information and Communication Minister, Dora Akunyili, to stop commenting on the topics of Mr. President's health. Jonathan himself accepted this understanding. For this same reason, the EXCOF did not discuss the report of its six-man delegation.

It was learnt that NASS leaders pledged to shoot down any motion to debate the health of the President, as well as entertain whatever Bills emanating from the Office of the Acting President to avoid questions about any power vacuum.

The Governors' Forum has been credited with the successful deal to maintain the status quo despite calls from opposition and civil society for the removal of Yar'Adua.

The governors, it has been observed, have a strong rapport with the ailing president; the kind Jonathan does not enjoy with them.

There were reports that the governors were not happy with Jonathan's new style which excluded consultations with them, especially concerning the creation of the Presidential Advisory Council, Federal Projects Assessment Committee and approval of the reconstitution of the Presidential Monitoring Committee on the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC). They expressed the view, it was learnt, that they ought to have determined who got jobs at the federal level; they also felt that Jonathan would erode their power base if he continued in the new style.

Some Northern governors were said to have accused Jonathan of "political and religious insensitivity", claiming that it was politically insensitive for him to appoint a Northern Christian, Lt.- Gen. Theophilus Danjuma (rtd) as the chairman of the PAC and a Southern Christian, Prof. Ben Nwabueze as Deputy Chairman of the council and were said to have condemned a situation where Akunyili, made internal matters of government public.

It was also reported that before the council meeting, the governors had mandated the ministers, most of whom were nominated by them, not to participate or vote on the issue of incapacitation of the President.

Opposition Sticks To Call

Prominent Nigerians, among them, Rtd. General Alani Akinrinade, Engr. Buba Galadima, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Sheik Ahmad Abdurahaman, Solomon Asemota (SAN), Usman Bugaje, Senator Abu Ibrahim will be among those that would speak at the Save Nigeria Group (SNG) mass action scheduled to hold in Abuja today.

According to the statement, the rally is intended to bring the invisible presidency to a closure through the application of Section 144 of the Constitution; it is also intended to force Electoral Reforms on the front burner to restore integrity of the ballot box.

The group met with the Acting President last Wednesday and presented him with three position papers, top among them, the need for Jonathan to do all within his power to end the agitations over his indefinite Acting Presidency.

Bola Tinubu on Tuesday, last week, argued that Nigeria was engulfed in a confusion orchestrated by a cabal he fingered in the plot to ensure that Yar'Adua was planted in Aso Rock to frustrate the parliament's resolution making Goodluck Jonathan the Acting President.

Tinubu, former Lagos Governor and chieftain of the opposition Action Congress (AC), insisted that the path away from the quagmire is for the Executive Council of the Federation (EXCOF) to invoke Section 144 of the Constitution declaring Yar'Adua unfit to rule and clearing the way for Jonathan to be sworn in as substantive President.

"All Nigerians must support the Save Nigeria Group and other patriotic organisations in putting pressure on the relevant state institutions to do what is right in the national interest.

"The final decision on President Yar'Adua's health and continued suitability for office is entirely that of Nigerians and the Constitution we have sworn to uphold. We have a country to build. President Yar'Adua has played his part in no small measure in building the nation. He deserves full rest now for recuperation. Now is the time to invoke Section 144 of the 1999 Constitution in the national interest; and the (EXCOF) must not shirk this constitutional and patriotic responsibility."

PDP's Anti-Jonathan Decision

What appears to be PDP's own version of counter-coup emerged during the series of meeting with relevant organs, especially the PDP Governors when they expressly announce that the party would maintain its rotational presidency. This settles, officially, the question of whether Jonathan could get the party's ticket if he remains Acting President when the party fishes for its candidate in the 2011 presidential election. The decision was roundly criticised by some southern elements and progressives who remarked that it would be unwise to deny Jonathan the opportunity to serve if he proved himself capable in the next few months.

The party's Board of Trustees (BOT), member, Ebenezer Babatope, however, on Wednesday rationalised the decision of the party to keep the Presidency in the North for the next general election.

His words: "The decision of the party was the correct decision; it was based on the principle of rotational presidency which we have adopted.

The Democratic Alternative (DA), a leftist party, flayed the decision of the PDP to continue its rotational presidency principle, saying it was retrogressive and calculated to retard the growth of democracy in Nigeria.

National Chairman of the party, Abayomi Ferreira, noted that the plan was unacceptable. His words: "The statement attributed to the PDP is a blatant corruption of the Nigerian constitution. The Democratic Alternative denounces the plan of the PDP to maintain an indefinite plan of satisfying an internal arrangement of the party for sharing the resources of Nigeria. It is against the constitution of the country to maintain an indefinite period of an Acting Presidency whist the people are ignorant of the true state of health of the elected President. It may be a convenient application of the PDP arrangement for sharing power and national resources whilst Nigerians continue to wallow in deepening poverty."

Anticipating Jonathan's Presidency

Some political commentators believe that Jonathan could still steer himself into contention regardless of the action of the PDP, and have urged him to acquit himself excellently in the next few months by addressing some of the major sources of disenchantment with government. Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP), last week admonished him to write his name in gold in the remaining part of the Yar'Adua's tenure under which he is serving by concentrating on power and the Niger Delta, two issues generally believed to have been the nemesis of past governments.

National Chairman of African Renaissance Party (ARP), Ndu Yahaya, however wrote off the entire Yar'Adua Presidency, including Jonathan's Acting Presidency, who he noted were of the same political orientation and dismissed anything useful coming to Nigeria through them. Yahaya is particularly riled by Jonathan's recent appointment which he claimed exposed his wrong understanding of what is at stake. He also believes the Acting President has failed since he could not contain the crisis in Jos which recurred last Sunday. According to him: "I am looking beyond the present because nothing very useful can come out of the present government; it's the Yar'Adua government and they both belong to the PDP."

He noted that like many other Nigerians he was prepared to watch and would be glad if his pessimistic view was contradicted.

On his part, National Chairman of Citizens Popular Party (CPP), Maxi Okwu, acknowledged the possible impact of governor's forum on the administration, and noted that it had become a powerful bloc but he pointed out that no political group could be stronger than the constitution. Okwu expressed the opinion that EXCOF did not do what they were supposed to do as they provided the platform that nailed the impeachment of Yar'Adua.

He said: "I have read the decisions of the governor's forum; I am aware of all the intrigues but no matter what they think, they cannot be stronger than the Constitution or the National Assembly. The governors can't flow against the tide and for me I believe the Yar'Adua Presidency is over."

National Chairman of Africa Liberation Party (ALP), Emma Okereke, held the view that the governors' decision, as well as EXCOF's position were a huge joke and advised all efforts be concentrated on providing democracy dividends rather than running to Aso Rock to decide the fate of Nigerians. He expressed dissatisfaction with the entire handling of the situation.

Similarly, Chairman of Peoples Salvation Party (PSP), Junaid Mohammed, who said the unanticipated return of Yar'Adua was more of a comic relief said the action of the governors; the NASS, as well as the EXCOF, was ill-motivated.

Hear him: "The constitution must be respected and it has to be done properly. First of all the National Assembly would have to pass another concurrent resolution asking the Executive Council of the Federation to give them a status report on the health of President Yar'Adua and having done that the council would have to put those five doctors together to examine Mr. President' health and from there on follow the relevant sections of 144 and 145 of the constitution."

There is no question that Acting President Jonathan faces a daunting task but most Nigerians are of the opinion that he should not allow any group, including the ministers or the governors' forum to intimidate him, and that he should strive to make the best use of the time available to him. As for the governors who have recently shot themselves into prominence, critics appear to decry their meddling role, saying they have become a pressure group - a role not given them by the Constitution.

Battle Lost And Won, War Continues

Even though Jonathan may not have succeeded in having his way, many believe it is just a matter of time. The only thing analysts believe would stand against his eventual assumption of full powers, is the sudden appearance of Yar'Adua to the saddle, which many see as quite a slim chance.

In achieving this, they believe that only tactic will change, while the goal would not only remain in view, but achievable in due cause.

One of the means to do this is not to go for a full scale action, but to take matters gradually as they come. Those advocating this believe that it would only be a matter of time before the Yar'Adua's men would miscalculate and play into his hand and thereafter, fall one after another.

That, it seems, has already started happening now, with the first victim being former National Security Adviser Abdul Serki Muktar, who was replaced by his predecessor Muhammed Gusau. Though Muktar's fall could be linked to last weekend's fresh violence in Jos, Plateau State, where more than 500 people were reportedly killed the fact that ancillary import in the power struggle, cannot be dismissed. He was one of the key elements in the pro-Yar'Adua camp. Senate President, David Mark, believes that the Acting President has all the powers to be his own man, a statement that many are not seen on the surface. That, coming with General Theophilus Danjuma, chairman of PAC, telling to move against his traducers and Obasanjo, warning that Nigeria could not be taken for a ride as the country did not belong to a particular section, all coming last week, remain quite instructive.

How long the power play goes and what eventually turns up, remain to be seen. But what is not lost to observers is that the plot is getting thicker and more dangerous.