On 3 March, the state governors decided to block a vote that could have set in motion President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's enforced resignation on medical grounds. This has won his supporters in Abuja more time but does nothing to resolve the crisis caused by the power vacuum at the centre of government.

Three days earlier, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan had tried to address the crisis by appointing a 26-member Presidential Advisory Council to speed up the implementation of government policy on key issues: the amnesty in the Niger Delta, rehabilitation of the electric power grid, electoral reform and stronger anti-corruption measures.

Chaired by the former Defence Minister, Lieutenant General Theophilus Danjuma, the Advisory Council's members include Ben Nwanbueze as Deputy Chairman, banker Fola Adeola, oil expert Basil Omiyi, former Inspector General of Police Muhammadu Yusufu, former Commonwealth Secretary General Emeka Anyaoku, businessman Kase Lawal, Mohammed Hayatudden, Justice Salihu Modibo Alfa Belgore, businessman Bamanga Tukur and Ismaila Isa.

Nigerians welcomed the initiative in the hope that it would speed up government machinery and tackle some pressing problems. One of the biggest concerns in Abuja was that the amnesty deal in the Delta would come apart if the government did not accelerate the release of funds to the agreed projects there. In the last few weeks, militants have resumed attacks against oil installations and warned of further escalation.

There were also hopes that the Council would help to steer through the reforms recommended by Justice Mohammed Uwais's Commission to give the coming national elections some credibility. Jonathan tells his allies he is determined to boost electricity output to the 6,000 megawatts he had promised to deliver by the end of 2009.

However, all these measures depend heavily on the will of the National Assembly and the 36 governors who have been flapping in the wind during the crisis over President Yar'Adua's medical leave.

After months of inaction, the Chairman of the Governors' Forum and Kwara State Governor Abubakar Bukola Saraki in February backed a formal transfer of authority from the ailing Yar'Adua to Jonathan. Given that Saraki is regarded as one of the frontrunners in the 2011 presidential election, this move hugely strengthened Jonathan's camp.

A clandestine return

It may have also prompted First Lady Turai Yar'Adua's decision to bring her husband back to Nigeria, to step up the fight against those seeking his forced resignation. It seems that the Yar'Adua camp has influenced several state governors to try to limit Jonathan's authority as Acting President. Some governors were critical of the choice of Danjuma, a northern Christian, to chair the Advisory Council. Others said Danjuma has his own constituency in the military and is independent of groups backed by General Ibrahim Babangida and former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

The governors may also fear that the Council could diminish the importance of their role and that of the ministers that they appointed to the cabinet. Yet their decision not to proceed with a detailed medical assessment of Yar'Adua, a preliminary step to forcing him out, solves nothing. The danger is now that both they and ministers are divided over how to resolve the crisis. No one is predicting Yar'Adua's early return to full-time politics. The stasis suits some ambitious politicians.

The governing People's Democratic Party will hold its national conference in November and will choose its presidential candidate then. Suddenly, veterans of past military regimes – such as Gens. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau and Babangida – have become extremely active within the PDP caucus.

In the shorter term, the stand-off between the Jonathan and Yar'Adua camps will have to be resolved. Yar'Adua's clandestine return, accompanied by a retinue from the Brigade of Guards in the small hours of 23 February, jangled nerves. We hear Governors Isa Yuguda (Bauchi State), Bukola Saraki (Kwara), Usman Sa'idu Dakingari (Kebbi), Ibrahim Shema (Katsina) and Mohammed Danjuma Goje (Gombe) met Yar'Adua's group to warn of the heightening political tension over the power vacuum.

Popular sentiment has moved against the Yar'Adua group and Turai faces vilification in the press and from civil society. Yet these groups also criticise Jonathan's lack of determination to wield power in his new role. Steeled by the Secretary to the Government, Mahmud Yayale Ahmed, Jonathan had been pushing ahead with more political plans, such as forming the Advisory Council.

Jonathan will need the combined experience of that panel to make progress with the state governors. Statements from Britain and the United States backing him may cut both ways: adding to his authority in some quarters (there was talk of visa bans on some of Yar'Adua's officials) but also allowing his opponents to cast him as a Western puppet.

More importantly, he has been unable to meet Yar'Adua and plan a coordinated government which could include appointees from both camps. The next step will be a cabinet reshuffle but it will be difficult to coordinate that with the governors, who demand influence over appointees from their states. Dora Nkem Akunyili, the outspoken Communications Minister, accused Yar'Adua's camp of 'gaining from the confusion'.

Signed on Yar'Adua's sickbed, the supplementary budget expires this month. Without agreement on a new budget, state spending could grind to a halt, jeopardising political plans. The need to cooperate may prompt a wider political deal.

The PDP is in poor shape and the crisis has damaged it further. The weak leadership of National Chairman Vincent Eze Ogbulafor has not helped: the party has fissured and new alliances have emerged.

In the north, young reform-minded professionals are vying with the veteran clique, mainly in their 60s and 70s, now in charge. They are calling on former anti-corruption czar Nasir El-Rufai, ex-Federal Capital Minister Nuhu Ribadu and former Bauchi Governor Ahmed Adamu Muazu to reform the party. They also support a full transfer of power to Jonathan. That might be why Turai Yar'Adua has been accused of sending plaintive e-mails to El-Rufai, seeking his support for her husband and his determined retinue.