Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull Volcano, Iceland. (Photo Courtesy NASA)

Johannesburg — YOU know the worst of an international disaster is perceived to be over when the ironic jokes start circulating. The Icelandic volcanic ash crisis is no exception. At the time of writing the indications were that half the flights into and out of the European Union (EU) would take place as scheduled yesterday, a marked improvement on the 20%-30% prediction made at the weekend.

The best-case scenario, which assumes the volcano either stops emitting ash or favourable winds blow it away from the most densely populated parts of Europe and the east coast of the US , would see flight schedules returning to normal over the coming few days and the worst economic consequences starting to be reversed by the weekend.

But anyone who has smiled wryly at the description of the havoc caused to European aviation as Iceland's revenge on the western world for failing to rescue its banks in the wake of the credit crunch, or who has sniggered at the suggestion that the beleaguered nation had tried to exchange cash for ash, has surely had no reason to travel internationally over the past five days, or had their money invested in a planeload of perishable products bound for the European market.

For such unfortunate individuals and companies this has been an unmitigated disaster. What Osama bin Laden, the global financial meltdown and last year's exceptionally cold northern hemisphere winter failed to achieve -- bringing the aviation industry to its knees -- was brought about with ridiculous ease by a natural phenomenon that few predicted in any but the vaguest terms and could be repeated next year or next week for all we know.

As it is, the best-case scenario includes a good deal of wishful thinking. It is likely that aviation conditions will continue to ease in the short term, allowing more European airports to open for business, but there is every chance of further eruptions in the coming days and weeks that would compound the airlines' woes.

The European Commission indicated yesterday that it could step in to rescue the region's major carriers, thus avoiding a spate of bankruptcies among aviation companies that barely survived the global economic slowdown and have lost as much as 250m a day over the past week. As long as Mother Nature plays ball, European industry is big enough to avoid lasting damage and the inconvenience to individual travellers will soon be forgotten.

The most severe economic effect in the long term could well occur outside Europe -- in places such as Kenya, which has a significant fresh produce and cut-flower export sector focus ed almost exclusively on Europe but little or no support from the state.

If there is a commercial lesson for Africa to learn from this seemingly random event, it is surely to avoid putting all of your eggs in one basket.