Lagos — That is the question that has arisen in informed political circles since last week when the national newspapers were awash with the report of a new thinking in the North in favour of a 'new order,' a new presidential face, the fourth force so to say. Tunde Rahman attempts to put a face to this 'new force'

Only three presidential war horses are known to have made their intentions to contest the 2011 presidential election known from the North. Their names come for mention in virtually every discussion about the 2011 race in the North: former Head of State, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, running on the platform of his new party, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); former military President, General Ibrahim Babangida, battling for the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar also on PDP platform.

Buhari had contested and lost in 2003 and 2007 while Babangida popularly called IBB simply played the ostrich in 2007, coming out to test the political waters and withdrawing when the coast appeared unclear. As for Atiku, the presidential ambition dates back to 1993 and was so close to it in 2003 yet he distanced himself from it when he was persuaded to drop his plan to give President Olusegun Obasanjo a run for the PDP ticket.

But some young Turks in the North seems to be saying all that is history. The North, according to the reports, is now talking about generational shift in leadership. Series of meetings and consultations are now being held among the younger elements in the region who are mainly politicians and professionals to push forward a younger element for the presidential race as opposed to those like Buhari, IBB, Atiku and National Security Adviser Alhaji Aliyu Gusau whom they describe as old war horses.

The North is said to be re-strategising at present over how it can present a 'new face' and win back the presidency lost temporarily with the death of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua after just three years on the saddle. The plan may pitch the old horses who are parading themselves as the experienced candidates against the young Turks who are now closing ranks to present what they call new order candidate for the race. The move is said to be in tandem with an earlier initiative in the North soon after President Yar'Adua's death to field the best of the North for the presidential election before the President Goodluck Jonathan equation got into the mix.

At that time, some of the arrow-heads in the search for a credible Northern candidate to succeed Yar'Adua in their proposal, which was said to have received attention widely among the political class, Northern intelligentsia, business leaders, civil society and others, had given the "irreducible minimums" for the candidates as sound mind and track record. But those in the vanguard of the extant clamour for the new order are mainly PDP governors who remain a major powerful block in the party and the Northern professionals who have regained prominence in the area. The argument is that since the North has got the PDP to retain zoning, the region must put its best candidate forward who must have a track record.

They reckon that in 1979 and 2007, the North came up with reluctant candidates whose performance cannot be said to be exemplary and that 2011 should be different. So, who is the new face, the dark horse that may emerge in the build-up to the 2011 poll? The names that are readily mentioned in informed political circles include Bukola Saraki, Danjuma Goje, Muazu Babangida Aliyu, Nuhu Ribadu and Nasir el-Rufai. For these would-be candidates, the presidential ambition, if its in the offing at all, remains in the realm of conjectures and permutations, since their interest in the race is yet undeclared.

Bukola Saraki

Kwara State Governor Dr. Bukola Saraki is rounding off his second term in office by May this year. He is the Chairman of the Nigeria Governors' Forum (NGF) and PDP Governors' Forum through which platform his influence and power have grown tremendously. The governors' forum in PDP remains a major power bloc within the party and has demonstrated its influence within the party on many occasions. They were instrumental to the emergence of Dr. Okweziliese Nwodo as the PDP national chairman once they agreed that the embattled chairman, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, needed to step down. It was also from the rank of the governors that the Vice-President, Architect Namadi Sambo was picked. Some of the governors have even openly boasted that they would install whoever would be the party's presidential candidate when the time comes.

Though some say Saraki has performed fairly well as governor of Kwara State for eight years, the million-dollar question is- will his colleagues, particularly those in their first term who are desperately looking for reelection, settle for him. The other question is whether the core North is ready to cede power to a Northerner from Kwara State and to the North-Central zone that has also produced the Senate President for four years running now.

Danjuma Goje

Some politicians continue to see Gombe State Governor Danjuma Goje as a possible presidential aspirant from the North though he is not known to have indicated interest in the race. Like Saraki, Goje is in his second term in office and he is also said to have performed well as the chief executive of the state. It is not clear yet if Goje (though influential within the ranks of the governors) can get the governors behind him if he throws his hat into the ring. Also, Gombe is in the North-east zone where the PDP's stranglehold is said to be tenuous, with two of the six states in the zone belonging to the opposition Al Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Unconfirmed sources said all that Goje wants is some form of assurance from President Jonathan and the PDP apparatchik that he would retain control of the party's structure in the state.

Mua'zu Babangida Aliyu

Niger State Governor, Dr. Mua'zu Babangida Aliyu, a thorough-bred public servant, is the Chairman of the Northern Governors' Forum. He was the one who presided over the meeting of the region's governors at which a majority of the state chief executives voted to back the retention of zoning for the 2011 presidency. Aliyu was initially linked with the jostling for the vice-presidential slot behind President Jonathan but some have also mentioned him in connection with 2011 presidency. Like the other two governors, Aliyu is in his second term and he is said to have a powerful voice within the governors' forum. But his presidential flight may not be in full swing given the fact that former military leader, General Babangida, who is also running for the topmost office from the same state may have gained some mileage ahead of Aliyu.

Nuhu Ribadu

The way and manner the former police officer, AIG Nuhu Ribadu, recently returned to the country after some time in exile and the fact that he is at present free of all encumbrances put in his way by the regime of the late President Yar'Adua is enough reason for many to link him with the 2011 race. However, truth is Ribadu is been persuaded by some professionals and leaders of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to join the presidential race. A possible Ribadu/Oshiomhole ticket or Ribadu/Fashola ticket both on the platform of the ACN are being touted on the political scene. Comrade Adams Oshiomhole is the governor of Edo State while Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola holds sway in Lagos State , both on ACN platform. According to some analysts, a Ribadu in the presidential race really excites, given his record of achievements as pioneer chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFFC). But whether that would pull the necessary votes across the country to put the anti-corruption czar in Aso Rock, because of the potential it holds for a major change in the entire system, is yet to be known.

Nasir el-Rufai

Former Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nasir el-Rufai, has also been touted as a possible 'new face' in the presidential race. But unconfirmed sources said el-Rufai has already thrown his weight behind President Jonathan for 2011 and is working to help in actualising Jonathan's ambition. However, that does not remove the possibility that he could be drafted into the race. As a technocrat and tested public officer, the former minister also fits the picture of a 'new order' painted by the young Turks in the North.