Johannesburg — THE world seems in the grip of macroeconomics. Central bankers and finance ministers may not rule the roost, but they certainly hold sway over the future of the globe's prosperity. The language of globalisation and trade liberalisation has receded significantly in the past few years. Some argue that mercantilism seems to be on the rise. So perhaps there is a degree of sense in the government's policy of wooing the Bric nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
I want to believe in the coherence of the state's economic policy. Despite our history, the most fitting phrase for SA's current challenges is that famous Clintonian campaign slogan: "It's the economy, stupid."
SA has three fundamental challenges: structural unemployment, structural inequality and structural poverty. Even our endemic corruption is partly symptomatic of those problems. Eyebrows might be raised for omitting racism from this equation. While we continue to be plagued by vicious and ingrained racism, if we deal with those three problems then we essentially deal with structural racism. Prejudice and bigotry are difficult creatures and, as distasteful as they are, we may just have to learn to live with them. So, "it's the economy, stupid".
The problem is that when one starts to peel back the layers, there is a disturbing vacuum in the middle of our economic policy vision. For instance, beyond the hype, the rationale for the visits to the Bric countries has either been poorly communicated or lacks practical intent. It is not that the visits in themselves are wrong. It is concerning that they are conveyed as being central to economic focus and plans. Yet how exactly are they potential game changers?
As with so much of our policy, we focus almost solely on the external and macro when the internal and micro are the lowest-hanging fruit, without which the effect of macro initiatives is constrained. Strategic ties with these countries are important but unless we fix the problems at home, our ability to maximise the relationships will be limited. SA needs to learn to knuckle down. Yes we can look at the framework, but without building internal competence and capability it is meaningless. It is also important to see the world for what it really is.
The discourse of our time is macro policy framed by managing supply and demand. However, the lived reality is Schumpeterian. Whether you believe in the return of mercantilism (and notwithstanding the resurgence of commodities and resource economies), entrepreneurial activity and corporate innovation have become the central nervous system of economic organisation. The state may play a role as a driver of the system. It may even be the heartbeat - through policy or through more direct state activity in mixed economies. Yet whatever else drives our economic systems, capital and business are the core of them.
Enterprise is structural, for good or ill. The micro drivers determine the macro policies. Therefore, ambitious and realistic economic policy must locate enterprise centrally. This raises some interesting questions about SA's challenges and ambitions, given the complexity of our nation's body politic.
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan's comment that SA should set itself a target of 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next 20 years is laudable. Seemingly impossible right now, it is nevertheless the minimum magic marker needed to chip away at the structural defects of the economy.
What is slightly concerning is that it appears to be merely an abstract number - its proponents have no tangible ideas on how to set about achieving it. SA will struggle to reach half that target over the next two, possibly three, years. The architects of our previous growth plan, the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for SA (Asgi-SA), set themselves a target of 6% GDP growth when they were already within reach of that mark. The Asgi-SA target was insufficient, lacking in ambition for the times - we still believed the US could continue at 4% and China would stay within the double-digit growth range.
This new target is quite the opposite. The world is not what it was in terms of economic virility and our growth will correlate to global output. Perhaps, even more important, is that regardless of the external circumstances, both targets ultimately succeed or collapse on state constraints.
Given the state of the body politic, the social accord Gordhan rightly argues we need in order to achieve this target has rarely seemed so unachievable. It will not be achieved until we make some real progress on building the platform to pursue it - knuckling down. We could start with the government focusing on its ability to deliver and administer public goods, including those that enable economic growth, while also being redistributive and bridging the poverty and inequality gap. We know them: functional and affordable healthcare, education, mass public transport, electricity, water, etc.
We could also look at focusing the government's ability to play a structurally positive regulating role in the private sphere, especially in breaking the rigid and anticompetitive landscape of commerce - a bigger factor in poor productivity than labour.
Mahabane is a partner at Brunswick, a financial communications firm. He writes in his personal capacity.

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