Analysts have predicted that Zimbabwe would be thrown into serious political turmoil if long time President Robert Mugabe dies in office.
In recent weeks news of Mugabe's allegedly failing health has dominated many newspaper columns around the world because recent pictures of Mugabe showed him walking unsteadily and requiring the assistance of aides to negotiate stairs. But the 86 year-old ZANU PF leader's health has been a closely guarded secret for decades.
Notwithstanding his advanced age and 'deteriorating' health Mugabe, nevertheless appears determined to seek re-election in the next poll, once the redrafting of a new constitution is complete next year.
Academic and political researcher Clifford Mashiri told us this scenario increases the chances that he might die in office, or due to old age will become incapable of performing the duties of his office, by reason of mental or physical incapacity.
'There is a danger that if he (Mugabe) dies while still in power, there are chances the country will be left in disarray as factions in ZANU PF fight to gain control of power. What is clear after 30 years of Mugabe at the helm of ZANU PF is that the party is incapable of resolving the succession issue,' Mashiri said.
He added; 'The possibility of a military coup cannot be ruled out but it is less likely if a person from ZANU PF takes over through an act of Parliament. It would be a different case if someone not from ZANU PF takes over or if there is a mass rising against anyone from ZANU PF taking over.'
Mashiri said people should always look at the powerful generals as 'dirty rich soldiers' who will do anything to protect their wealth, and the situation can only get worse if ZANU PF loyalists in the military split over their choice of leader.
Derek Matyszak has written a paper for the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) titled 'Drop dead beautiful? Legal notes on death and the President.' It looks at the legal position and what ought to happen in terms of the current constitution if Mugabe were to die today.
He writes that Section 29 of the Constitution provides that if the president becomes incapable of performing his duties, he will cease to hold office if a joint committee of the Senate and House of Assembly formed at the request of a two thirds majority of Parliament recommends this.
Another analyst said by law, this was the only plausible way of replacing Mugabe democratically if he fails to complete his presidential term but doubted this would happen under a military that supports ZANU PF.
'As long as you have these generals who rose through ZANLA ranks forget about power transfer when there are no security sector reforms in Zimbabwe. Look back at a series of recent events where power transfer was impossible even when it was clear Mugabe and ZANU PF lost the elections,' the analyst said.
Writing in the British Guardian newspaper last week, Blessing-Miles Tendi, the author of 'Making History in Mugabe's Zimbabwe: Politics, Intellectuals and the Media' said it is time people started thinking seriously about a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe.
'The great leader seemingly appears healthy and unflappable in public. But all is not well with Mugabe, and we must ready ourselves for his departure.
'It is unlikely though that he will be able to unilaterally hand-pick and impose a successor in his party, it is rife with factionalism surrounding two powerful party figures; Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and the most senior living guerrilla figure from the liberation war, retired military general Solomon Mujuru,' Tendi said.
Tendi is of the view that Mugabe has to negotiate a compromise successor with these factions, lest his party falls apart.
'But after years of avoiding the succession issue while internal fissures have deepened, Mugabe may be unable to manage and settle the matter effectively in his lifetime. If this happens, military generals are likely to have the most influence over Zimbabwe's future,' he said.
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Have not I been posting the same concept for several years now?
My family intervened when my 85 y/o Granfather wanted to renew his driver's license because he was a hazard to the general public! But yet, this man is still the President of a nation?
There is no one in ZANU-Poofwho can keep it all together except the CIO/JOC and they will be rightly viewed as criminal thugs, not only in the "West", but within Zimbabwe as well.
Problem is, ZANU-Poof has NO exit strategy, they continue to hold power while dangling by the thread of the life of an 86 y/o man who is reviled throughout Zimbabwe and throughout the rest of the world.
While the man's prior accomplishments, his ruthlessness, and his charisma may have held ZANU-Poof together for the past 30 years - without him, ZANU-Poof is rudderless, without a nationally recognized leader, and the JOC/CIO will have to seriously consider their moves if they are not to their bolt-holes in Malaysia or Hong Kong..........
"Total Empowerment!" - Yes, you do remember that Comrade Bob "promised" Zimbabwe "Total Empowerment!" don't you? Yet another of ZANU-Poof's failed promises.........
Juhlman;
When Cde Herbert Chitepo died at the hands of George Warren and Roy Bennett; when detente was declared by the racist and illegal regime of one-eyed Ian Douglas Smith; when Ndabaningi Sithole sold the revolution out; when Nyathi sold out and massacred comrades at Nhadzonia; when Chimoio was bombed and when Mkushi was bombed, the war did not stop.
While it is true that the pace at which we were moving (in prosecuting the war) was reduced (because pabva zino rava vende) when all these happenings took place, they did not stop the war neither was there chaos or turmoil" of any kind in either ZANU and ZANLA or ZAPU and ZIPRA.
It should be remembered that when ZANU and ZANLA moved from Zambia to Mozambique President Mugabe was not yet there - he only came much later but the war was being prosecuted like no one's business. The strategy used to avoid "turmoil" then is the same one to be used should anything happen to our dear and great President today.
We are fully aware that people are born to die and are fully prepared for that. It is not the culture of ZANU-PF to tell everybody what is on a card on their chest. They guard it jealously. The important point to note is that they are very good at contingency planning.
Your view of ZANU-PF is so skewed that you will never be able to tell or predict what goes on within the revolutionary party. McGee, his bunch of unscrupulous and lying CIA agents and the MI6 ALL tried it but failed. McGee himself had the audacity, more than once, to predict when the government of President Mugabe was going to fall but it all came to nothing - he is the one who eventually fell, face down.
The CIA and MI6 also speculated about the imagined divisions within the revolutionary party but they dismally failed to make the grade. We are here talking about a revolutionary party per excellence; a vanguard party and a people's party that has roots that go far, far, far, far down to be shaken by the inevitable death of one of its own as if the whole of ZANU-PF is, today, not aware that Takunya will one day pass on.
Juhlman.
If your 85yr old grandfather is danger to himself and to the general public,it doesn't mean that 86yr old Mugabe is even more dangerous! Maybe he was a crap driver from day one.There's a 90yr old lady who lives down my road.. who drives! She's NEVER had an accident in her life and she's been driving for more than 50yrs!
If your 85yr old grandfather drives like a drunk tortoise,it doesn't mean that anyone in his age group acts and behaves the same.
Gary!
Julhman,
You bring up an interesting point about aging..Yes, it been observed and scientifically proven that as we age we lose our motor skills, mobility and ability to absorb new ideas. And this applies to Mugabe as well. Mugabe is still relatively in good shape, but struggles to let go of the past and look forward to new ideas. I favour and many people in Zimbabwe pray that Mugabe could just hang up with power and let the new generation take over. That would be a far better option, than dying while still President, which would lead to confusion and heavy tribal infighting (which is already paralyzing MDC-T) and instability.
Mugabe is making a big mistake by not handing over power to the next generation. It is like a Rich father who fails to pass on his wealth to his children. The bigger problem now (because of Mugabe) is that Zimbabwe has not had any new ideas about governing, about new ways of attracting foreign exchange or business and about developing Zimbabwe. Companies change leaders all the time to increase productivity and profits and so do countries. Obama was elected because people wanted change. Change is good and we should embrace it to remain a good and productive country. Old politics are just tiring Zimbabweans apart.
Phiri;
There is no "interesting point" this idiot is bringing up. He is just a moron, simple. How can a foolish fool like Juhlman post an interesting point at all? I am yet to see one from the retarded bustard. If the issue is about "letting go of the past" why do they talk about the so-called Second World War (which in actual fact is the Second European War). Were they not recently honouring those who died in that European War?
Did we not witness, for the first time, an American official taking part in the commemoration of the death of about 142 000 innocent and unarmed civilians who were, wantonly and in cold-blood massacred by the American Atomic bomb on Hiroshima? Why are they refusing to shed the past? Why talk about what happened some 60 years ago?
In what way then is President Mugabe "struggling to let go of the past" when it is a fact that this is part of our history and forgiving and not mean forgetting.
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