Kenya: Hague Trials Must Not Derail Nation's Economy

The new constitution, however long and convoluted its birth, had been a shot of adrenaline: I found business people generally very positive about the year ahead, looking forward to a productive and, more importantly, profitable 2011 as the country finally seemed to have shaken off the slowdown from 2008 and 2009. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) again expect more than 5% GDP growth 2011. Back then, I did wonder about the impact of the limited rainfalls on agriculture, hydroelectricity generation and additional expenditures for famine relief. And I thought it was interesting that in the buoyant mood early in the year, few people talked about the political risk to business anymore.

Business is still largely confident, but you don't just need to look at the shilling value recently to realize that some of this enthusiasm has fizzled out. Of course partly this is to do with the dollar demand driven by rising oil prices - but forex traders indicate that the exchange rate is also beginning to reflect some jitteriness about the political environment. And take yourself out of Kenya for a moment and look at it from the outside: A condom shortage, and then the endless headlines, ever bigger and louder, about ICC.

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