The Star (Nairobi)

19 November 2011

Kenya: KQ Share in Successive Closing Lows All Week

The Exchange was thinly traded. The Nairobi All Share eased 0.20 points to close at 71.40. The NSE20 retreated 20.43 points to close at 3350.29. Market Cap was 911.216b. Equity Turnover was a very laid back 116.122m versus 192.323m. The Shilling was last trading at 91.70 a 3 month high and has rallied 14.299% October 11 when it printed an all time low of 107.00 through today, which makes it the world's best performing currency over those dates.The recent strength in the shilling should also mean that Inflation is now being wrestled with.

In Commercial and Services

Safaricom was lightly traded and closed at 2.90 -1.69% with 1.156m shares traded. ScanGroup traded 5th at the bourse, closed unchanged at 41.50 and traded 164,200 shares worth 6.814m. ScanGroup accelerated H1 PAT some 87%. It Looks attractive at these levels. SSA Advertising continues to show an above trend trajectory and ScanGroup by all accounts is playing a much more offensive game regionally.

ScanGroup is -18.145% in 2011 and is +14.48% since October 18. Kenya Airways fell a further 2.301% to close at 19.10 and traded 47,200 shares. It has closed at successive 25 month closing lows every day this week. TPS Serena was low ticked 7.72% to close at 50.75 on just 1,000 shares.

In Banks

Equity Bank traded 3rd, eased 0.256% to close at 19.45 and traded a 19.10-19.60 range and 787,600 shares. Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 17.00. KCB traded a 16.90-17.10 range and 368,700 shares. KCB has retreated 7.608% since Nov 2 on light profit taking. Barclays Bank was the 4th most actively traded counter. Barclays Bank eased 0.37% to close at 13.40 and traded a 13.20-13.50 range and 567,800 shares.

Barclays Bank rallied a mighty 43.601% 3rd October through 1st November when it closed at 15.15. Barclays Bank has retreated 11.55% since the 1st of November. COOP Bank closed unchanged at 13.95 and traded 348,100 shares. COOP Bank traded around the 14.00 level 22nd August through 27th October, then bounced 8.92% through the 2nd November before retreating right back to the same level that prevailed previously. CFC StanBic was low ticked 4.49% to close at 42.50 on 900 shares traded. StanChart closed unchanged at 179.00 and traded 1,500 shares.

In Industrial and Allied

EABL was the most active share at the exchange and firmed a further 2.4% to close at 171.00. EABL traded a 170.00-180.00 range and 165,900 shares worth 28.522m. EABL closed at a 19 month closing low of 150.00 on 21st October and has rallied 14% since that date through today. I think the share was oversold and Investors had been reflexively and incorrectly expecting a cash call.

The company quashed that talk and the price has rallied sharply. EABL is unwinding its cross shareholding with SABmiller and has already offered its shares in Tanzania Breweries to the public. Athi River Mining was the 2nd most actively traded share. ARM traded 120,000 shares worth 18.6m all at 155.00 -4.32%. ARM had been the biggest gainer in the previous session when it rallied 8%.

ARM provisioned 681m in their Q3 2011 Results for an unrealised foreign exchange loss. Given the recent rally in the Shilling, I would have thought a good portion of that could be written back at the FY earnings release. Bamburi Cement traded 700 shares at 158.00 and unchanged. Portland improved 0.85% to close at 59.00 and traded 300 shares. BAT traded 27,700 shares all at 230.00 -0.43%.

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