Africa: Durban's Dirty Number - 2020

opinion

Monday was an interesting day for climate discussions, however much of it was happening behind closed doors out of the reach of the negotiator tracker team, NGO's and media. Nonetheless, news of China's potential willingness to take on legally binding agreements, and its possibility to be a game changer within climate change negotiations set the corridors of the ICC abuzz. Furthermore, amidst discussion in the long-term cooperation action plenary about the inadequacies of financial mechanisms, the implementation of elements of the Bali Action Plan, and a proposal to include the rights of nature by Ecuador, much discussion was had about the review of the 2 degree emissions reduction target currently agreed upon. The discussions around the review, which is set to take place in 2015, involved numerous constituencies calling for a shifting of climate change targets to 1.5 degrees as opposed to 2, in order to better ensure a safe climate future. However, even though AOSIS has made it explicit that this review is a matter of survival for them, such a call may increasingly be wishful thinking in the face of one worrying and politically significant number, 2020.

In my previous article, I described how the African group was making a noble push to save the Kyoto Protocol, but it is important to keep things in perspective, the 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (KP2C) is supposed to be only a bridging step towards a broader more ambitious agreement. What is needed afterwards is a more ambitious, hopefully legally binding global treaty that will help to close the gigatonne gap. The African Group, among other political blocs, is asking for this new treaty to come into effect by 2015, some parties, however, including the US, are calling for the agreement to be pushed back to 2020. This push if successful could have disastrous effects and make the review for a 1.5 degree target seem like a game of fantasy policy making completely detached from the realities of climate change.

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