Addis Ababa — The ongoing 18th Summit of the African Union (AU) seeks to consider, as its main theme, the issues of regional trade and ways of enhancing regional integration on the continent. The AU has great plans for the current summit.

These plans include establishing continental free trade by 2017, creating a monitoring framework to track progress, coming to an agreement on how to resolve disputes and conflict resolution in certain parts of the continent, and establishing cooperation between the AU and REC's as well as enacting free movement between borders in an effort to promote economic growth and sustainable development. But given the various conflict spots and political crises on the continent, issues of peace and security cannot be set aside.

However, the issue of elections of new commissioners, including the chairperson of the AU Commission, is likely to occupy a significant portion of the deliberations, hence the focus of these notes on this specific issue.

According to various reports, there are only two contenders for the post, namely the incumbent Jean Ping, and the current South African minister of Internal Affairs (also former foreign affairs minister), Dr Nkosazana-Dlamini Zuma. There seems to be a tight race between the two.

But a number of dynamics could play out in favour or against one of them. One such dynamics regarding the South African candidate is the perceptions that some countries may have about Pretoria regarding its handling of the Ivorian and Libyan affairs, particularly the former.

It would appear that many West African countries, not least Nigeria, were disappointed by Pretoria's apparent support for the former Ivorian leader, Laurent Gbagbo, until late in the post-electoral crisis between him and the internationally-recognised winner of the pool, the current president, Alassane Outtarra.

There seems also to be a divide on the continent regarding the Francophone/Anglophone loyalties. Jean Ping speaks both English and French and is Francophone, while Dr Zuma is not thought to speak French.

But while these might play against the lady, many seem disappointed with Ping with regard to his style of leadership, that is seen by some is timide, at least in comparison to his predecessor, the former Malian president, Alpha Oumar Konare. Apart from her experience on African issues and reported managerial skills, the AU requirement for gender balance may also play in Zuma's favour.

Given the strong campaign and lobby by both candidates, there is thus strong chance that neither of the two may secure the two-third majority required to win in the election. In the event that neither of the two candidates secures the required majority, there are five possible scenarios:

1. In accordance with Rule 42 of the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly of the AU, there will be a second and third round of elections until one of the two candidates gets the required two-third of the votes.

2. The election could be suspended until a fresh election from new candidates is held during the next election. If, after the third round, neither of the two contenders gets the required majority, the candidate with fewer votes will withdraw and the assembly will vote on the remaining candidate. If the votes in favour of the candidate do not constitute the two-thirds majority, the Chairperson of the Assembly would suspend the elections, in which instance the Deputy Chairperson shall takeover as interim Chairperson.

3. One of the candidates may withdraw from the election.

4. Upon the request of states members of the Assembly, the election could be postponed until the next summit.

5. A member of the assembly could propose a compromise and agreement could be reached allowing the incumbent to finish another term and guaranteeing the contender to be the next Chairperson.