Angola's main opposition party Unita is staggering towards collapse, and with key figures jumping ship, could be wiped out in September's national assembly election.
Unita has struggled to make the transition from apartheid-backed guerrilla movement to parliamentary party, but remains Angola's biggest opposition party, with 10,2% of the vote and 16 seats in Angola's 220-seat national assembly. In 2008 it took 57% of the opposition vote.
Abel Chivukuvuku Epalanga, one of Unita's former parliamentary chiefs and possibly its most influential leader, is quitting the party and in March will announce the name of a new political movement he intends to lead into the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for 5 September 2012. Some 300 Unita members have defected to Chivukuvuku's new movement. In addition he has also attracted Lindo Bernardo Tito, the former head of the Social Renewal Party, and other influential members from civil society.
Chivukuvuku, who holds a Unisa degree in diplomacy, is one of the most charismatic politicians in Angola and has spent his entire political career in the ranks of Unita. In the 1980s he was part of its diplomatic office in Portugal, the UK and the US. After the 1991 MPLA-Unita peace agreement, he returned as the head of the Unita parliamentary group and later became political adviser to founder Jonas Savimbi. After Savimbi's death, he ran for the party leadership against current president Isaias Samakuva, now his main domestic rival. Samakuva has been blamed for Unita's declining electoral and financial fortunes (Vol 29 No 14). Party insiders fear the party could be wiped out in September's poll.
Chivukuvuku believes the breaking up with Unita is the most viable way to create real change in Angola and is convinced his break-away can take votes from Unita. If his new party does not replace Unita as the largest opposition formation behind MPLA the first time out, in September, he is expected to win several seats. This will position him for the next 2017 election, to marginalise Unita - and, perhaps over-optimistically, to make a run for the presidency.
Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos is likely to step down before the 2017 election, opening the field to a host of actors by removing the MPLA's most potent electoral weapon.
Chivukuvuku has not formally informed the Unita hierarchy of his intention to quit the party. But he refused to attend the party conference in December 2011, where Unita chiefs eager to keep him onside were planning to swear him in as special advisor to Samakuva.
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A disturbing reality of many African nations is the fact that democracy is driven by a party in power and a so called opposition party that is marginalized. The opposition party spends years trying to become the party in power. Whether due to corruption, oppression or the accumulation of power in the hands of a few control of the government rarely changes hands. In this process the majority of African citizens slowly become politically disenfranchised and openly hostile and suspicious to government. Events of the last few years on the African continent support this conclusion.
Unita was never equipped to make the transition from liberating force to parliamentary party. Its political mandate ended with the cessation of hostilities which sustained its relevancy. The political landscape an Angola has changed so much that only a new and modern opposition group can vie for governmental party. The real problem in Angola as with many other African nations is the lack of real political debate and multiple political parties and choices.