Julius Malema's career in South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) is effectively over, although it could be months before he is formally removed from his post as president of the ANC Youth League and of his membership of the ANC.

Confirmation last weekend (4 February 2012) by Cyril Ramaphosa, chair of the ANC's National Disciplinary Committee of Appeals (NDCA), of Malema's conviction, set the seal on his removal. But there are several inevitable steps in the ANC's grindingly slow disciplinary process before he moves into the political shadows.

The NDCA found Malema, his secretary general Sindiso Magaqa and spokesman Floyd Shivambu, guilty of ill-discipline, bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing divisions within the party. But it also found the National Disciplinary Committee (NDC) had erred in not giving him an opportunity to plead in mitigation of the five-year suspension it imposed and that it could not properly suspend him without hearing him on the subject of sentence.

Malema has until next week to submit heads of argument over sentence. The NDC will then hear his lawyers and make a finding.

Inevitably, he will appeal any NDC sentence to the NDCA, which will take several weeks to confirm or vary its decision. Malema can, and inevitably will, then ask the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) to consider the NDC finding. The NEC has discretion on whether to do so, and its authority is limited to sending the matter back to the NDC.

Whatever the outcome, and equally inevitably, Malema's litigious legal team will then go to the High Court - and possibly to the High Court of Appeal thereafter - to delay implementation.

The ANC has, in the meanwhile, opted not to activate the two-year suspension hanging over Malema since an a NDC ruling in 2010 (11 May), although it could do so on the basis of the conviction alone - the sentence is due to take effect if Malema is "again convicted of a similar offence".

The ANC officials' rationale for delaying activation of the earlier suspension appears to be that, ahead of argument in the High Court, they should bend over backwards to be seen to be fair to the troublesome youth league president. They are keen to avoid a drawn-out High Court case with a judicial finding that the ANC violated Malema's rights or breached due process.

The process could thus drag out for months.

While his lawyers will begin arguing next week before the NDC for a lighter sentence than the five years originally imposed, ANC prosecutors intend to use the right given by the NDCA to argue in aggravation - that is, for a harsher penalty, probably expulsion.

They will argue that Malema exhibited a pattern of behaviour before and since his disciplinary that demonstrates no remorse, but in fact includes further ill-disciple.

They will specifically refer to his comments immediately after the NDC announcement of its finding on (Vol 29 No 28), when he referred to "enemies" in the ANC and "the gloves coming off". Other examples available to them include his recent reference to ANC councillors in the Free State as "baboons" and singing derogatory songs about President Jacob Zuma at the December 2011 ANC Limpopo provincial conference.

There is also the issue of a supposed amendment to the youth league constitution requiring youth league confirmation of any sentence of a youth league member handed down by the ANC: while Ramaphosa dismissed the idea as "absurd", the more serious issue is that the "amendment" surfaced only after the NDC ruling - and there is no shortage of youth league members willing to testify that the "amendment" was never discussed at the youth league's June 2011 national conference. Effectively, this would constitute fraud - a charge that would justify permanent expulsion. ANC prosecutors are understood to be considering bringing evidence.

But this is detail: after the NDCA confirmation of his guilt, Malema is a political dead man walking.

And then there is the prospect of criminal prosecution arising from his business activities (Vol 30 No 2).

Although he is at this week's youth league annual lekgotla (8-9 February 2012) as president, even his allies in the leadership are preparing for life post-Malema - their ambitions fuelled by the NDCA decision to overturn their conviction for having "barged" into an ANC leaders' meeting.

The NDCA finding frees up deputy president Ronald Lamola, deputy secretary general Kenetswe Mosenogi and treasurer Pule Mabe to actively involve themselves without distraction in the manoeuvring to replace Malema.

Secretary general Sindiso Magaqa and spokesman Floyd Shivambu, with NDCA confirmation of convictions for ill-discipline, bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing divisions within the party, must return to the NDC next week to plead on their sentences.

The manoeuvring at the top is unlikely to be fully settled at this week's lekgotla.

While league officials will attempt to project an image of unity, the gathering is expected to demonstrate just how divided the organisation has become since Malema's autocratic grip has loosened. Support for his hopes of ousting Zuma and secretary general Gwede Mantashe at the ANC December elective conference has fractured, particularly in provincial structures.

Anti-Malema sentiment is running high in Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal - where deputy provincial secretary Siboniso Duma openly derided Malema for believing that he could take on the ANC. In Gauteng, branch and regional structures are actively debating leadership options sans Malema. His support is now limited to sections of the Eastern Cape and Western Cape.

To replace Malema the league could theoretically call a special national conference to elect an entirely new leadership, or convene a special National General Council (NGC) meeting to the same end. A procedurally quicker option would be to allow the far smaller NEC either to appoint an acting president or to put together a task team to run the league until the next national conference in 2014.

The process, to be debated at this week's lekgotla, will influence the outcome: the NEC route will leave the Malema-era leadership in a position to influence the outcome more directly than in the larger national conference or NGC forums.

The league's constitution empowers Lamola to take over in Malema's absence, but the position will be contested. Treasurer Mabe has also laid claim to the leadership, arguing seniority (length of membership) over position. But he was among the first of Malema's hand-picked officials to break ranks when it was clear Malema was going down, earning him the ire of Malema loyalists. They are attempting to expel him for supposed incompetence and replace him with Magaqa.

Gauteng provincial chair Lebogang Maile, who last year unsuccessfully challenged Malema for the presidency, is another candidate.

If the league implodes completely, the ANC national working committee can take over the affairs of the league as it did in the aftermath of the chaotic elective conference where Malema first tried to impose his leadership on the league. The conference could not continue and was postponed.

Whatever the outcome, the league's role as a platform for Malema's ambitious mines-nationalisation programme is greatly diminished. It was never, in practice, more than a means of generating support in Malema's anti-Zuma campaign. The remnants of his leadership corps may continue to use the rhetoric, but without the youth league the idea of nationalisation-as-panacea is over.