Southern Africa Report (Johannesburg)

Lesotho: Mosisili On Shifting Ground

analysis

Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili's ruling Democratic Congress (DC) looks set for a rocky time at the polls. Factionalism is already blighting the new party, which may well find itself in opposition in the next Parliament, facing a ruling coalition centred on the Mosisili's former power base, the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD).

Mosisili had hoped that, by forming the DC, he would leave behind the ruinous schisms of the LCD. But disputes in eight of the DC's constituencies over the selection of candidates, who were delegated by the DC's executive against local wishes, have prompted the prime minister to make fervent appeals for unity ahead of the 26 May election.

Pro and anti-DC violence has marred campaigning. Last week the prime minister appealed to the youth wing of his party to desist from attacking political opponents. The DC has yet to win hearts and minds throughout the country and the Mosisili is wary that his supporters may alienate voters.

His main political rival, Mothetjoa Metsing, who heads the LCD, is conducting a vigorous campaign around an election manifesto centred on improving relations with South Africa, tackling unemployment, and reforming natural resources policy to provide the government with a larger share of profits from mining.

Mosisili abandoned the LCD in February, crossing the floor of Parliament with 44 of the party's 62 MPs to form the DC, which he then declared to be the ruling party, following a "vote of confidence" engineered by parliamentary speaker and Mosisili supporter Ntlhoi Motsamai (Vol 30 No 6).

But Mosisili's hopes of using his long-standing personal clout to speed the DC to victory at the polls smacks of hubris. Metsing recently drew a large crowd at an LCD rally held in Mosisili's home district of Qacha's Nek, suggesting that the party may have retained the core support it enjoyed before Mosisili's departure.

Election campaigning this time around has come under close scrutiny by the Independent Electoral Commission.

In the past Mosisili's electoral campaigning involved buying votes using donations of food and by making quick infrastructure improvements at strategically important constituencies. He also used government vehicles and other resources to reach voters.

Corruption of this kind was not confined to Mosisili's LCD, but as the ruling party it had open access to most of the resources it wanted.

Last month the IEC set up a monitoring panel to ward off the use of state resources for party electioneering, particularly in the country's decisive but hard to reach mountainous regions. But the Commission cannot prevent parties from using their own resources to catch voters.

The party that travels to the multitude of highland constituencies where the majority of voters live is likely to have the greater chance of winning the election.

On this count Mosisili's DC has had a head start. But it looks as if the prime minister will find that this will not be enough to prevent a coalition of the LCD and other opposition parties from forming a government after 26 May, possibly setting Lesotho politics on a completely different path.

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