Any efforts by the deeply divided ANC Youth League to forge a "political solution" aimed at reversing the expulsion of its former president Julius Malema from the ruling party are likely to backfire.
What remains of the league's Malema-aligned executive went public on Monday (7 May) with their demand to engage the ANC with the view to reinstating Malema, as well as former youth league secretary general Sindiso Magaqa and former spokesperson Floyd Shivambu. Since Malema and Magaqa had to vacate their posts, all that remained of the league's national working committee was deputy president Ronald Lamola, deputy secretary general Kenetswe Mosenogi and treasurer Pule Mabe.
But Mabe - who has his eye on replacing Malema as league president - was also relieved of his duties by pro-Malema forces in the youth league National Executive Committee (NEC), which removed Mabe by suspending him from his post as treasurer.
The move has exposed the fissures in the league, with pro- and anti-Malema factions nearly coming to blows at last weekend's (6 May) NEC meeting. The remnants of the league's leadership are therefore in no condition to make demands on the ANC, let alone engineer the reinstatement of Malema through sheer defiance.
Their strategy is flawed for several reasons. First is the league's continuous refusal to accept the outcomes of the disciplinary process in relation to Malema, Magaqa and Shivambu. This refusal paints the league into a corner in any future discussions with ANC officials, all of whom went public in their support of all outcomes and decisions of the party's disciplinary procedures. That move binds all the officials, even those among the top six who might be sympathetic to Malema's cause.
The league's plan to engineer a political solution will also tank because it simply doesn't command the kind of allies this would need in the ANC's NEC, which will be the only platform at which the issue is likely to be raised, if at all. Malema will have to write to the NEC to request that his matter be heard. If the league writes to the ANC, the party line will most probably be that Malema - and not the league - will have to request the NEC to table the issue, since Malema was disciplined as a member of the ANC and not in his capacity as youth league president. The NEC in turn also has the discretion to table the matter. It could well choose not to do so. Given the balance of forces, taking the Malema matter to the NEC could also backfire for Malema, especially since Zuma seems to have managed to get the NEC to fall in line with his approach to the league.
ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe has made it clear that Malema's expulsion is final. In an interview with Southern Africa Report, Mantashe insisted the ANC constitution would be the only guide to how the party addresses the Malema matter. This view was also expressed by the chairman of the ANC appeals committee, Cyril Ramaphosa, when he handed down his decision to axe Malema last month: "The NEC may, in its discretion, review a decision of the NDCA. The NEC's power of review does not encompass a further appeal, but affords the NEC an opportunity to review decisions of the NDCA to satisfy itself that natural justice has been afforded to a charged member."
If the NEC concludes that "natural justice" had not been served, its authority is restricted to referring the case back to the NDC. Overturning a disciplinary decision is not in the NEC's prerogative, and therefore not an option.
Nor is the league's determination to "engage" the ANC to save Malema unanimously accepted in the ranks. This was underlined when over 15 members of the league's NEC asked the ruling party to intervene following the suspension of Mabe. The group have already indicated that they will continue to lobby Mantashe on the issue, saying that Mabe was removed "un-procedurally" by Malema's allies. Mabe's group will use the league's upcoming national general council to mobilise support for their views.
With a fractured league rent down the middle as ambitious leaders try and position themselves to replace Malema, the remaining leadership will be hard pressed not only to engage the ANC on its own terms, but to wrest major concessions from the party - such as overturning Malema's expulsion. Luthuli House can afford to play hard ball because it's the league - and not the ANC - that stands to lose more if the power vacuum remains.
Already the league's anti-Zuma campaign has been hobbled. Anti-Zuma forces remain scattered and fragmented, leaving the field clear for Zuma supporters to push ahead to consolidate his second term ambitions in the party and the state.
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