Aswat Masriya (Cairo)

Egypt: Experts Speculate Scenarios for Egypt-Israel Relations Under Mursi

On Sunday, the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi was named Egypt's first democratically-elected president, ending a transition period ruled by a military council.

Many experts fear that the relationship between Egypt and Israel may deteriorate under Mursi's rule.

Former North Sinai governor and strategic expert, General Ali Hefzy, believes that speculations regarding Mursi's stance on Israel must wait until the Muslim Brotherhood president addresses the issue. He explained that the relationship between the two regional allies must not be built on statements made before Mursi was named president, but after.

Mursi had told Wafd in April 2012 that, under his rule, Egypt would commit to all accords with the international community, including the Camp David Peace Accord signed with Israel.

Mursi reaffirmed this promise in his first speech after being declared Egypt's president.

Meanwhile, strategic expert General Talaat Mesalam, argued that "Egypt-Israel relations may deteriorate if Mursi was to make irrational decisions. However, they may not in any way reach confrontations between the two countries as the United States will intervene at the right time before the situation soars".

He pointed that irrational decisions which may lead to deterioration in the relationship between the two neighbors could relate in part to frequent happenings on the border that the two countries share. Under Mubarak, Egyptian officials used to deal with such events with diplomacy through filing complaints to the international assembly concerned with protecting borders.

Mesalam feared that Egypt's new president may take a confrontational stance that may include direct responses leading to clashes between the two countries.

"Statements by elected President Mohamed Mursi on Israel, released prior his election, were radical - promising voters a strict approach with Israel in the case of violations", Mesalam said, arguing that this leaves Egypt with two possible scenarios; either he will fulfill the promise which will satisfy his voters but prompt a crisis with Israel, or he will fail to fulfill the promise, which will anger those who voted for him.

Meanwhile, strategic expert General Yosry Kandil, argued that the relationship between Egypt and Israel is restricted by treaties and agreements the two countries signed. He added that he does not expect core conflicts in the relationship as long as both countries commit to their promises.

Kandil ruled out the possibility of Mursi changing the framework of the relationship with Israel, pointing, "The new president and future government will focus their concentration on facing internal issues, such as low wages, healthcare drawbacks, the security void, among others, at the expense of international relations - and most probably he will not turn to confrontation with Israel under these conditions".

Kandil argued that the solid ties between the Muslim Brotherhood, which President Mursi belongs to, and the Hamas movement, will not have an effect in the relationship between Egypt and Israel, at least in the near future.

He explained that Egypt and Gaza have cooperated through an exchange of aid but will not be extended to military aid because such move would prompt tension with Israel. He argued that Mursi does not intend on starting up disputes with Israel, especially because such decision is not in the hands of Mursi alone.

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