13 July 2012

Kenya: NSE20 Hits a New 12 Month Closing High

The NSE20 Index firmed 5.56 points to close at 3802.96 which is its 2nd consecutive 2012 and 12 month closing high. The NSE20 Index is +597 points and +18.6271% in 2012. I think the Index rallies a further 10+% through year end towards a level of 4,200 before year end. I expect further monetary easing in the quantum of 4.5% through year end. The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.12 points to close at 82.29. Market Cap was 1.076508 Trillion. Equity Turnover was 216.742m and signals supply exhaustion at these levels in a number of counters, which is bullish, in fact.

In Commercial and Services

Safaricom traded 3rd and firmed 1.41% to close at 3.60 and traded 6.848m shares worth 24.649m. Safaricom is +22.0333% in 2012 and 1.369% below 3.65 its 2012 and 11 month closing high from July 3rd. Safaricom targets 4.00. Uchumi firmed 0.32% to close at 15.65 and traded 342,400 shares.Uchumi is +103.24% in 2012 and the best performer in 2012 at the Exchange. Standard Group rallied 8% to close at 27.00 and traded 13,000 shares. Nation Media closed unchanged at 178.00. Nation Media is +7.83% over the last 4 weeks.

Among Banks

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd, firmed 1.075% to close at 23.50 and was trading at 23.75 +2.15% session highs at the finish line. KCB traded 1.654m shares worth 39.099m. Equity Bank was the most actively traded share,closed unchanged at 21.50 and traded a 21.50-22.50 range and 3.444m shares worth 74.84m, which represented 35.51% of the equity turnover during todays session. Equity Bank is +36.778% in 2012 on a total return basis. Barclays Bank Kenya closed unchanged at 13.75 and traded 513,700 shares worth 7.086m. Barclays Bank Kenya has rallied 10% over the last 4 weeks compared to its majority shareholder Barclays Bank PLC which has fallen 13.333% over the same period. Co-oP Bank traded 4th, improved 0.43% to close at 11.60 and traded 838,800 shares worth 9.733m. Co-oP Bank is +13.725% in 2012. Centum traded 5th. Centum retreated 1.16% to close at 12.75 and traded a 12.50-13.05 range and 690,800 shares worth 8.817m. Centum is -5.555% in 2012 and has retreated 13.55% since June 18th and the release of its FY Earnings. Transcentury retreated 1.02% to close at 24.25 and traded 144,100 shares.

In Industrial and Allied

KenGen firmed 0.59% to close at 8.55 and traded 286,400 shares. It has firmed 1.18% in 2012. Kengen has head room and their Geothermal gig is gaining real traction now. Kenya Power firmed 0.33% to close at 15.20 and traded a 15.15-15.30 range and 580,700 shares worth 8.839m. KPLC is -2.564% in 2012. However, KPLC has rallied 8.185% over the last 4 weeks as investors thought its under performance versus the benchmark index overcooked. ExPress Kenya issued a profits warning before the opening bell. It traded 2,200 shares and closed unchanged at 3.95. ExPress is +1.28% in 2012. Mumias Sugar eased 3.6% to close at 6.70 and traded a 6.60-7.00 range snapping a 7 consecutive session Rally which had seen Mumias rally 13.93% July 2nd through today pre-opening. Mumias Sugar is apparently revisiting its Tana River Delta Project. Bamburi Cement rallied 3.52% to close at 176.00 and traded 1,300 shares. Bamburi Cement is +40.8% in 2012 and +14.285% over the last 4 weeks. KenolKobil retreated 2.555% to close at 15.25 and traded 252,000 shares. BAT was high ticked 3.038% to close at 373.00 on 1,100 shares. EABL was low ticked 1.709% to close at 230.00 and traded 300 shares.

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