Washington — Ahead of an Aug. 2 deadline, the leaders of Sudan and South Sudan over the weekend engaged in their first direct talks since hostilities spiked in late April.
But on Monday, observers here in Washington warned that the framework for the talks remains too narrow, threatening to continue a decades-long trend of ineffectual agreements in Sudan that fail to address underlying issues of governance in Khartoum and marginalisation elsewhere.
"A deal is still possible, because the (Khartoum) government is cornered. This could affect the situation for a while, but it would be a stopgap measure," Omer Ismail, an activist born in Darfur, said at a panel discussion in Washington on Monday.
"But that is not going to help the problem of the two Sudans in the long run, due to the difference in view between the north and south - between a country that is trying to become a democratic part of the world community, versus a country that is trying to be more fundamentalist."
On Saturday, little over a year after South Sudan achieved its independence, Presidents Omar Al Bashir and Salva Kiir met in Addis Ababa on the sidelines of a summit of the African Union Peace and Security Council, which both addressed earlier in the day.
While little is publicly known of the substance of the hour-long meeting, news reports suggested that the two presidents emerged smiling and shaking hands. In the eyes of many, this marked a significant turnaround since the two countries almost went to war over a disputed oil field in April.
South Sudan had already cut off critical oil production in January, a move that heavily impacted on revenue streams for both the new government in Juba and that in Khartoum.
The strained relationship has been further exacerbated by ongoing charges that South Sudan is aiding rebel groups in several areas in Sudan. The Khartoum government stands accused of having stepped up the shelling and bombing of civilians, violence that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding into South Sudan in recent months, overwhelming both the fragile new government and international humanitarian efforts.
Saturday's meeting came the same day that an official African Union report characterised progress in the rapprochement between Sudan and South Sudan since April as "slow and uneven" and noted the "looming deadline" of Aug. 2, a deadline initially proposed by the African Union and subsequently adopted by the United Nations Security Council.
If the two sides are unable to come to agreement on a host of outstanding issues by that date, Security Council-backed sanctions are set to kick in on both countries. The Security Council has already noted its concern over the stuttering peace talks.
According to media reports from Addis Ababa on Saturday, President Kiir's chief negotiator and general-secretary of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Pagan Amum, said that the two presidents had "instructed their negotiating teams to expedite negotiations".
Deal of desperation
Recent weeks have seen a rash of public protests in Sudan, ostensibly over economic difficulties - a situation that Omer Ismail says is the Khartoum government's own making.
Further, pointing to a recent uptick in public actions by the Sudanese trade unions, Ismail broaches the topic on an increasing number of Sudan watchers' minds. "It should not be taboo to call for regime change: we need regime change in Sudan, for the Sudanese people to live in peace and for Sudan's neighbours to live in peace," he says.
Although the appetite on the part of the international community - and certainly the United States - to directly assist in toppling President Bashir is currently very low, there is a general sense that Bashir is on his way out.
According to Francis Deng, a former Sudan diplomat and currently U.N. special advisor on the prevention of genocide, the failure to address grievances in the south has long been the underlying cause for changes of regime in Khartoum.
"If (the Bashir) regime had been wiser, now that the issue of the south has been dealt with, it would have done what it could to address the grievances of all the marginalised groups that are not in the south, because all these are interlinked," Deng said at the panel discussion here on Monday.
Today, President Bashir's weakened standing is almost certainly pushing him towards re-engagement with the south.
"There's a hint of desperation in both quarters at this juncture that, coupled with the Security Council deadline, might actually yield some kind of temporary deal," John Prendergast, a co-founder of the Enough Project, an anti-genocide advocacy group and sponsor of Monday's panel discussion, said in Washington.
"But unless and until there is some mechanism or negotiations framework that addresses the internal issues in Sudan in a comprehensive way - something that jointly accommodates the aspirations of all of those groups that have been fighting against the Khartoum government - it will never be sustainable."
Prendergast is excoriating in his assessment of the African Union negotiation team headed by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.
"Those tasked with the negotiations have not imagined the comprehensive approach that is necessary to actually resolve the conflict," Prendergast says.
"They need to expand their effort and recognise that there are multiple issues of governance that need to be addressed. Otherwise, any agreement will be another example of people signing deals and then walking away."
Prendergast says that this type of approach to the problems in Sudan - a "stovepipe" type of "talks only" mediation - have characterised the international community's approach for the full 23 years of President Bashir's rule.
Instead, the Enough Project suggests a dual set of negotiations, one on the cross-border problems between Sudan and South Sudan (as is already taking place) and another focused on issues within Sudan itself, where many suggest that a massive civil war is unfolding.
To that, Prendergast adds a third negotiations track focused on human rights, by ramping up international efforts to support Sudan's opposition and civil society. He also suggests creating real consequences for human rights violations.
"If the Aug. 2 deadline comes and goes, let's ensure the imposition of Security Council sanctions as promised," he says. "If they miss that deadline, that's a catalyst to try to create some kind of consequences for abuses."
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ARABIC WAS GIVENTO A VAST AREA OF PEOPLE WHOM WERE SWAYED BY THE ISLAMIC RELIGION AND HAD TO SPEAK ARABIC TO ENETR INTO TH MOSQUES AND BE CONSIDERED AN AUTHERNTIC MUSLIM.IN SUDAN TODAY WE FIND THAT THESE ANCIENT ORIGINAL BLACK PEOPLE WHOSE ANCESTIRY GOES INTO THE TIMES OF ADAAMTHE ORIGINAL PEOPLE ; THY HAVE BEEN ISAOLATED OFR CENTURIES THAT THEY LOST THIER EDUCATION . WE MUST REMEMBER THAT THE ARAE WHAT IS SUDAN WAS RAPED P[ILLAGED THE VBRITISH SUNK THE CITIES AND THE GREAT ARCHITECTURE TO PROOF THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT SAVAGES BUT FAR FROM. MANY BLACK PEOPLE AT DIFERNT INTERVALS IN HISYORY HAD TO FLEE TO THE BUSH. THESE PEOPLE HAS BEEN USED AS PAWN BY THE IMPERIALIST TO KEP SUDAN AT ODDS WITHITSELF. ARABS WERE GIVEN SPECAI;L STAUS BY BOTH THE FRENCH THEAS A MATTER OF FACT BY ALL THE ENSLAVERS THEY USED THE ARB TALK TO KEEP THE LIGHTER SKINNED PEOPLE AS PVERSEERS OF THE BLACK MAN. THE OVERSSER STARTED TO FORGET HIMSELF AND STARTED TO GIVE THE LESSER MAN THE POWER ,FALLING FOR THEB BRAINWASHING PROPAGANDA OF THE SLAVERS. ARABS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED TO BE MOSTLY THOSE WHO LIVE INTHE MID EAST WHERE THEY TOOK AS THE FROTNTLINE OF BLACK CULTURE. THEY THEN GAVE IT TO THESE MIXED BREED PEOPLE TELLING THEM THEY BUILT IT WITH THIER HELPTHE GREEKS ANS ROMANS BUILT IT FOR THEM. WHAT THEY DONT KNOW IS THAT THE GREEK AND ROMANS OCCUPIED THE GREAT CITIES OF THE MED THAT WE ABANDONED AND LEFT FOR THEM. HISTORY HAS BEEN SPOKEN THRU THE EYES OF BIGGOTTED RACIST WHTEWING SUPRERMACIST WHO JUST ARRIVED ONTHE PLANET AND THEY DO NTO OTHER THNB WHAT THEY HAVE STOLEN. THEY ARE THIEVES NOTHING MORE THAN PLUNDERERTS PILLAGERS THEY SHOW US THIER REAL SIDE DAILY. THEY COMMIT MURDERS WILLFULLY WITH DRONES AND INCURSIONS INTO PALESTINE. THEY SEEK WARS OVER THE ENTIRE PALNET PLUNDERING CREATIBNG CHAOS FORCING PEOPLE TO ABIDE AND LIVE BY THIER WILL AS IF THEY WERE GODS. THEY HAVE EVIL INTRENTIONS NOTHING TO BE EMULATED. WHAT THEY HAVE TO OFFER IS WEAK THEY SPEAK ABOUT BEING RIGHTEOUSS AS IF ITS A CURSE TELLING UIS THAT TO EB ALIARD SWINDLER THIEF MURDERER IS TYHE RIGHT WAY TO LIVE. THEY SAY TO US CONFLICT BUY GUNS BY WAR PLANES BY ANTI AIRCRAFT WEAPONS??? THEY TAKE OUR MOENY AGGRAVATER THESE WARS WHILE THEY KEEP US STUPID THEY KEEP US BOUND TO THEM INCHAINS. THEY ATKE FREE THINKINFG PEOPLE ENSLAVE THEM WITH THIER CORRUPTIUONM AND WHEN THEY SEE PEOPLE STAYING ON THE RIGHT PATH; THEY START TALKING ABOUT FUNDAMENTALIST THEY ARTE FUNDAMEWNTALY EVIL!! HOW IS THAT FOR FUNDAMENTALISM?? WHERE IS IT WRITTEN THAT WE SHOUDL GIVE UP WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED TO BE RIGHT FROM THE VERY BEGINNING OF TIME" THESE PEOPLE JUST GOT HERE HOW CAN THEY TEACH YOU?? HAVENT THEY TOLD YOU THAT ONE OF THE OLDES ALPHABETS KNOWN TO MAN WAS FOUND RIGHT HERE IN SUDAN. THEY TOOK MOST OF SUDANS GREAT STATUES GREAT BEGINNIGS OF CIVILIZATION AND BROUGHT IT TO EGYPT AS TO DENY THE SUDANESE THE RIGHT TO EB FIRST. THEY DO NOT WANT BALC PEOPLE TO KNOW THEY HAVE ALONG HISTORY THAT PRECEDENTS THEM BYU OVER MILLION YEARS. THEY BRAINWAHSED EVEN THE DARKSINNED ARBS WHO WERE BRON BLAKC TO THINK THEY WERE BRON WHITE. THEY HAVE DOEN ALOT OF SERIOUS WORK TO AFRICA AND ITS BEGINNINGS. THEY AHVE ONEHTING TO OFFER AFRICA THAT IS THE DECEPTIVE COUNCILS OF WARS; THEY FINANCE CONFLICT ALL OVER AFRICA. THE BLACK SUDANESE RIGHT THRU AND THRU THEY ARE BOTH BLACK PEOPLE BORN FROM THE SAME ROOTS SPEKING DIFFERNT DFIALECTS OF LANGUAGE WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT THE BLACK MANBROUGHT OT THE WORLD SPEECH WRITING NUMERACY ALPHABETS GRAMMA MATJEMATICS CSIENCE MEDICINE ALL WE KNOW TODAY IS THE INVENTION OF OUR GERAT BLACK FORE FATHRES AND MOTHRES. WE MUST NOW STEP ASIDE AND SEE THAT THE PROBLEM IS NOT WITH US BUT THE IMPERIALISTENSLAVERS WHO WANTS TO TRICK US SO THEY CAN MANIPULATE YOU TO KEEP YOU UNBALANCED SO HE CAN STEAL YOUR OIL AN WHATEVER ELSE THAT IS VALUABLE. WHAT HAS'NT SUDAN INTHE SOUTH STARTED BUIDLING ON GIGANTIC PROPORTIONS WHY IS IT THAT MOST OF THIER CAPITAL OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARSD HAS BEEN STOLEN THRU CORRUPTIONAND INCOMPETENCE. INSTAED OF MAKING USRE THAT YOU HAD QUALIFIED ELECTED PEOPLE WHO HAD POSITIONS BASED ONMERIT YOU HAVE FALLEN AT THE FIRST PHASE. NORTH SUDAN OFFERED TO BE OF THE GRETATEST ASDSSISTANTS TO YOU WHEN YOU FIRST VOTED FOR YOYR FREEINDEPENDENT BEGINNIGS YET YOU SCOFFED THAT AND PREFERED TO BECOEM WARRIORS AND ANTAGONISE YOUR BREOTHERS THRU IGNORANTS!!! FOLLOWING THE WAYS OF THE WEST WHOM YOU EVCEN HAVE AS YOUR GODS. HOW CAN ANYMAN BE A GD. "OURLORD" IS MOST SUPREMEE HE SHINES BRIGHETR THANANY SUN HE IS THE CREATOR OF MANY SUNS ; SUNS THAT SHINEONE BILLION TIMES BRIGHETR THAN THE ONE WE KNOW TO GIVE US LIFE. THERE IS NO HUMAN BEING CPAPABLE OF GIVING US THAT TYPE OF LIGHT. WE ARE BLESSED WUTH THE LIGHYT OF CREATION THIS WHOM YOU ARE. HE GAVE US THE USN AS SIGN OF HSI EVER BEING A SUSTENAVCE TO BRING FORTH OUR CROPS KEEP SU WARM KEEP US SAFE. WE HAVE BEWCAME SIDELINED BY THE WORDS OF MANY PEOPLE ; ONE THING IS SURE IS THAT THE TRUTH IS IN THE PSYCE OF EVERY BLACK MAN. WHEN WE SEARCH FOR THE TRUTH FROM OUR DIVINE BEING WE ARE PLUGGED IN AND WE ARE NOT DENIED. THE BLACK PEOPLE WHO SPEAK ARBIC IN SUDAN ALOS HAS BEEN WRONG INTHIER ASSUMPTIONS THEY TOO HAVE LET THE BALL DROP. TODAY THE PEOPLE OF SUDAN ARE REACHING OUT YO ALL THIER BROTHERS AND SISTERS IN EVERY AREA OF SUDAN ,THEY WERE FOOLED AND HAVE LET THEMSELVES DOWN. THEY HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT, ITS TIME FOR THE SOUTH TO FORGIVE AND STEP UP TO FIND WHERE THE PEOPLE BELONG BELONG ON THIS PLANET. YOUR BROTHERS AND SISTERS IN THE NORTH SAY "WE ARE SORRY WE ARE READY TO LIVE LOVING ALWAYS RESPECT AND LIVE HONOURABLY" .' THEY WANT TO AISSIST YOU TO BECOME INDEPENDENT AND ACHIEVE A HIGH STANDARD OF LIFE, TO SEE YOU IN A PROPER PLACE, WHERE BLACK KINGS AND QUEENS LIVE. TO THE SOUTH YOURE THE DECENDANTS OF GREAT CIVILZERS, STEP UP WITH PRIDE, LET THE PAST GO!!! KNOW YOUR HISTORY YOU LIVE IN A PROMISED LAND . RICH WITH RUNNING WATRES AND FILLED WITH FERTILE LANDS ; DO NOT DISRESPECT THE GIFT THAT IS YOUR LANDS, THIS IS AN INERENT GIVE A PRERSENT ONLY GIVEN FROM THE "ALL MIGHTY GOD" "HE LOVES WHOM HE WISHES " AND "GIVES TO THOSE WHOM HE LOVES" DO NOT SPIT ON YOUR HERITAGE, DO NOT WORSHIP THESE PEOPLE BECAUSE THEY ARE DISBELIEVERS .LIARS , HYPOCRITS AND THEY TELL A GOOD STORY, THIS IS ALL IT IS, A STORY; WORTHLESS TO YOU ,THEY ONLY WISH TO DECIEVE YOU. THE LESSON IN ISRAEL WAS A WAKE UP CALL "IT WAS REAL". "IMAGINE THAT YOU !!!! WHO ARE THE TRUE ORIGINAL ISRAELITES!!!! WERE REJECTED FROM A PLACE WHERE YOUR FOREFATHERS BUILT"""!!! HOW WICKED IS THAT?? THIS IS THIER WAYS ,THEY ARE NOT CHRISTIANS JEWS WHATEVER THEY CALL THEMSELVES THEY DO NOT PRAISE GOD ' ALL THIER PRAISES IS GIVEN TO THIER WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTIONS THIS IS THIER GODS". "WAKE UP AND JOIN WITH ALL YOUR BROTHERS AND SISTERS AND TEACH THEM OF THE WAY YOU WERE TRETAED CRIMINALISED EVEN WHEN YOU WERE READY TO MEET JESUS AND CLEAN THIER TOILETS IF YOU HAD TO ;THEY REJECTED YOU WITH A STRONG AND PASSIONATE HATRED"." THEY KNOW THAT THIS IS WHERE YOU BELONG AND THEY DO NOT". THIS IS WHAT YOU WILL MEET OVER THE PLANET THEY RUN WITH BULLYISM. THEY ARE FRAUDSTERS IMMITATORS CONNIVERS POLUTTEWRS PILLAGERS P[IRATES RAPIST PLUNDERERS DIRTY DISPICABLE P[EOPLE THEY HAVE NO LOVE. THEY TURNED YOU AGAINST YOUR BROTHERS AND SISTER EVEN PROFESSIONG,YOU WERE EVEN PROFESSING HATRED FOR THEM GIVING TO THEM YOUR UNDYING LOYALTY AND THEY THREW IT BACK IN YOUR FACE. THIS IS THE REALITY MY PEOPLE, MY PEOPLE WE MUST STRONGLY STAY UNITED WITH TRUE LOVE FOR EACH OTHER ;FORGET ABOUT THE CORRUPTION MAKE IT RIGHT ,DO NOT BEG DON NOT BORROW. START FROM SCRACTH ALLIGN YOURSELF WITH ALL THE PEOPLE FROM NORTH SOUTH EAST WEST IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT SOUTH SUDAN IS REBUILT." IT IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF ANTIQUITY AND YOU SHOULD KNOW . THE OLDEST OF CIVILZATIONS HAS BEEN FOUNDED THERE EVEN BEFORE WHAT WE KNOWTODAY TO EB EGYPT IT WAS ALL ONE WITH SUDAN AS THE TRUE CAPITOL KNOW THIS MY PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!