The latest report from the United Nations Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea has stirred tensions between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia.
Eritrea has seized on a selective reading of the report to call for the lifting of UN imposed sanctions, a call already rebuffed by the Monitoring Group's Coordinator. The diplomatic fallout is likely to continue as Ethiopia and its allies push for continued (or tightened) sanctions on Eritrea.
It is a sensitive time in the Horn of Africa. Tensions are rising along the region's main political and security fault-line between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia's government has taken an increasingly bellicose tone towards its former province, perhaps signaling an increased willingness to push more actively for regime change in Eritrea. This would have major but uncertain security consequences across the region.
In January, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of being behind an attack by ethnic Afar gunmen on a tourist convoy travelling in Ethiopia's north-western region. The attackers were most likely criminally motivated. However, given that the Afar people range across the Ethiopia-Eritrea-Djibouti border area, the attack significantly worsened Ethiopia-Eritrea relations. In March, Ethiopia staged raids across the Eritrean border - the most significant military activity along the border since 2000. Ethiopia said it was targeting Eritrean-sponsored training camps for Afar militants. Ethiopia's government may have hoped to trigger a reaction from their Eritrean counterparts, but there was no retaliation.
Long History
Successive governments in Addis Ababa have been challenged with ensuring Ethiopian security in the context of a volatile regional security landscape. The last two decades have seen civil wars in Somalia and Sudan, as well as the 1998-2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Since 2002, lingering animosity between Ethiopia and Eritrea has contributed to regional tensions, as both governments have sought to undermine the other's interests, such as by sponsoring proxy militia in each other's territory, and in Somalia.
Ethiopia has successfully exploited its important geo-strategic position to ensure that Eritrea remains isolated, within the region and internationally. Ethiopia's failure to abide by the terms of the binding arbitration over the two countries' border delineation and demarcation led to the current impasse. Eritrea's poor diplomatic engagement has not helped its position, although it could benefit, in principle, from holding the legal high ground in the decade-long stalemate with Ethiopia. In practice however, the African Union (AU) and the Horn of Africa's regional grouping, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have fairly consistently followed Ethiopia's lead in applying pressure on Eritrea, widely portrayed as a regional spoiler.
Ethiopia's Strains
The government in Addis Ababa faces domestic resentment as a result of the border war, which triggered a split in Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF is the core of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The purge which followed the TPLF split has seen power increasingly concentrated in the hands of Meles and his senior advisors, and more broadly, political space has tightened since 2005. In the 2010 elections, opposition parties had their appeals rejected after results saw their representation reduced to just 1 of 547 parliamentary seats. Restrictions on the media and non-governmental organizations have also increased. The government has utilized its dominance of the media, especially radio, to weave a narrative for public consumption of a nation under attack, with the EPRDF defending Ethiopian interests in the region.
Eritrea's Isolation
Eritrea's autocratic government was targeted by UN sanctions in late 2009, in response to providing assistance to Al-Shabaab in Somalia. However in 2010 and 2011, the government made a concerted effort to improve its international engagement. It reopened its mission to the AU headquarters in 2011 but came under pressure as a result of allegations, mainly from Ethiopia, that there was an Eritrean plot to bomb the AU's January summit. So far, sanctions have been weaker than Ethiopia had hoped for. Moreover, they have not extended to Eritrea's mining sector, revenue from which has eased the impact of its isolation.
An Opportunity?
Although tensions are arguably at their highest level in a decade, developments in Ethiopia and Eritrea and current shifts in regional security may still signal an opportunity for renewed engagement. Security dynamics in southern-central Somalia have shifted in the last year, and Ethiopia and Eritrea are no longer the only external actors. Al-Shabaab has suffered important military losses, which may leave enough space for international diplomatic engagement on the Ethiopia-Eritrea issue. International players should take the opportunity to pressure the two countries to resolve outstanding border issues and to unblock their diplomatic and security stalemate.
Eritrea's fiscal position is improving as its mining sector starts to generate revenue. This makes the country slightly less vulnerable to an Ethiopia-led isolation. Eritrea's government could be receptive to a well-timed reengagement with the international community, if this were seen to be accompanied by pressure on Ethiopia to abide by the 2002 arbitration decision. More quiet forms of diplomacy are needed, however, as both sides have already staked their public positions quite strongly.
Finally, rumours are circulating about Meles's health after he missed a recent AU Summit. These echo similar reports alleging the death of Isaias Afewerki, the President of Eritrea, earlier in the year, which turned out to be false. Whether he has a serious illness remains to be seen, but it could well be that the leadership structures in Addis Ababa are in for a shift - creating risks, but also potential opportunities for engagement.
Jason Mosley is associate fellow in the Africa Programme at Chatham House.
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I certainly agree with the writer that Eritrea has been punished because of its poor diplomatic efforts so far, had eritrea had a good diplomatic position the border issue w'd have been demarcated over night.However, regarding the monitoring group's report I have found it very annoying which jumps from case to case with out providing any crediable evidence to the exisiting case above all the monitoring group lacks the sense of balance which makes the report more wothless.
"WASHINGTON IS THE MAIN CULPRIT AND WHAT KEEPS ME WONDEING WHERE IS THIS ALL LEADING TO???. ETHIOPIA HAS A VERY STRONG POSISITON IN AFRICA AND SHOULD BE A LEADER NOT FOLLOWERER FIRST AND FOREMOST RUMOURS ARE WHAT IS MOTIVATING THE ETHIOPIANS AS THEY DEPEND ON WESTERN INTELLIGENCE TOO MUCH . WHY HAVE WE NOT SEEENA COMPREHENSIVE MEETING THE SAME AS WE SEE FOR BOTH SUDANS. WHY THE INETNSE HATE AND PROPOGANDA WARS. THESE TWO MEN ARE DICTATOSR BY EVERY MEANS TRHEY USE THIER DICTATORIAL BASES TO STAY IN POWER WHILE THE PEOPLE DONT NECESARRILY BENIFIT FROMTHESE ARRANGEMENST. HISTORY IS PROVING THAT ALL DICTATORS ARE USALLY A PAWN OF ANOTHER NATION OR A PAWN OF SOEMTHING. IN AFRICA THE SO CALLED MID EAST THE DICTAORS ARE THE PAWNS OF THE WEST. THE WEST PROPS THEM UP AND USE THEM AS OVERSSERS WATCHING THE PLANTAION WHILE THE MASTER LIVES THE HIGH LIFE!!! THIS IS NO JOKE!!! AFRICA IS TRUYL EVOLVING MENTALLY WE SEE TRUTH IN THE PATH OF OF OUR BEING SCARIFICED FOR THE WEALTH AND DOMIANACE OF THE WEST THIS CAN NOT WORK. AFRICANS ARE LIBERATING THEMSELVES STANDING UP FOR INDEPENDENT ASPIRATIONS IN DECIDING THIER OWN DESTINIES. WE NEED NOT A BIG UNCLE FATHER FIGURE WORST OF ALL ENSLAVER TO DIRECT US ON THE PATH TO TRUTH. MANY AFRICANS TODAY ARE FED UP OF THE CORRUPT REGIMES THAT ARE IN PLACE AT THE BEHEST OF THE WEST. THEY ONLY RULE THRU BRIBES CORRUPTION AND BULLYISM. THE WEST SELLS IT WEAPONS TO THESEN DICTATORS SO THEY CAN SUPPORT THIER REGIMES OF CORRUPTION MOSTLY BUT THE TOTAL REDFUCTION FO CIVIL LIBERTIES. WHAT THIS WORD MEANS TO WHITES IS THAT BLACKS DO NOT KNOW WHAT THAT WORD MEANS, THEY SHOULD ONLY BE DICTATED TO, FREEDOM IS ONLY OFR HITES AND THE WEST. EVERYONE ELSE MUST SUFFER PAY THE PRICE WHILE THEY LIVE OFF THE RESOURCES OF THE REST OF THE PLANET; THOSE DAYS ARE OUTDATED ANTIQUATED THESE THINGS CAN NO LONGER HAPPEN. TODAY THERE ARE OVER ONE BILLION AFRICANS DICTATORSHIPS CORRUPTION WILL NOT BE TOLERATED IN NO PARTS OF AFRICA. IT SI TIEMTHESE WTO GOVERNMENTS SEEK TO IMPROVE TIES LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE HOW THEY WANT TO LIVE NOT WASHINGTON OR ANY ONE PARTY THAT BENIFITS FROM THESE FOOLSIH DECISIONS. IT IS TRULY TIME FOR THIS RECONCILLIATION OF ALL AFRICAN PEOPLE SO THE CONTINENT CAN MOVE FORWARD. LET US BE STARIGHT THERE IS NO WAR BETWEEN AFRICAN CHRISTIANS AN AFRICAN MUSLIMS. WE HAVE FORGOTTEN THE TRUTH THAT ISRAEL WAS THE AFTHER OF BOTH THESE IDFENTITIES AND THEY WERE BOTH AFRICAN IN NATURE TRUTH AND ORIGINS. THE TRTUH IS NOT BEING OLD WE HAVE HAD MISINTERPRETATIONS OF BOTH THE SCRIPTURES AND THE QUARAAN SO THAT IT WOULD GUIDE THOSE IT BENIFITED. TODAY WE MUST INTELLECT TO DECIDER WHAT WE KNOW TO BE TRUTH. WE MUST ALL FOOLOW THE REAL PATH FOR EQUALITY JUSTICE AND ONG WHAT IS NOBLE JUST AND RIGHTEOUSSS. THERE IS NO DIFFERNCE WHEN WE SEARCH FOR THE TRUTH. SECTARINAISM DEMONIATIONS ARE ALL MAN MADE SUING SELCTING PIECES TO LEAD MAN ASTRAY. IF YOU ARE TRUE AFRICASN THEN YOU WOULD KNOW THE TRUTH WHATEVER THAT HAS BEEN SELECTED TO BE TOLD IN THE PAST FEW CENTURIES HAS BEEN MISLEADING THE PEOPLE. ETHIOPIA HAD THE PREVILDGE OF HAVING THE GREAT LATE 'KING HAILE SELASSIE 1ST" WHOM WAS DIRECT DECENDANT OF "ADAAM NOAH MOSES DAVID SOLOMAN CHRIST" AND YET YOU DID NOT SEE HIM FOR THE REALITY HE STOOD FOR???. MANY ILL TRUTHS HAS BEEN PUBLISHED BY MANY ON BOTH SIDES BUT THE TRUTH IS THAT HE REPRESENTED WHAT IT IS THAT WE KNOW TODAY THE AFRICAN IS THE INHERRIOTR OF THE TRUTH. HIS TITILE SUGGETSED TO YOU THE IMPORTANTS OF ALL AFRICA NATIONS.WE MUST ALSO LOOK AT THE FALSHAS WHOM LIVED IN ETHIOPIA FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS THEY SAID THEY WERE DIRECT DECENDANTS OF THE TRIE OF DAAN YET WE PAST THIS ILLUSTRIOUS HISTORY AS IF THEY DID NOT COUNT. WHEN THEY WENT TO ISRAEL BY THE UIN PRESSURING THE ISRAELLIS TO SEND FOR THEM THEY WERE PALCED IN DESERT CAMPS AS IF THEY WERE REFUGESS SEEKING ASYLUMAND NOT INVITED AS THEY WERE. THEY WERE MISTREATED BIASED AGAINST STIGMATISED RACIALLY MARGINALISED. THIS WAS WHEN TE TRUTH WAS KNOWN THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT OF THE TRUE REMNANTS OF OUR BELOVED ISRAEL. THE TRUE ISRAELITES WERE SCATTERED OVER AFRIA AND SOME FLED THRUOUT ASIA AND EUROPE . WE SAW THE REAL ISRAELITES IN WEST AFRICA LATER PICKING UP THIER TRAIL IN EUORPE, SPAIN WHERE THEY LIVED WITH MNUSLIMS AS ONE. WE MUST TRULY SEARCH ALL AFRICAS GREAT TRADITIONS AS HEY ARE ALL CONNECTED . WQE KNOW THIS FROMTH TITIEL FO KING SELASSIE WHICH WAS KING OF ALL KINGS SPEAKING TO ALL THE PEOPL;E FROM ISRAEL WHOHAD MORPHED INTO VARIOUS KINGDOAM IN AFRICA AND THE MIDEAST HE WAS TH TRUE KING OF ALL EARTHLY KINGS . NOTHING TO DO WITH EUROPE. THE KINGDOMS THAT WERE FARICAS WERE INHERRITED BY THSE OF THE TRADIION OF ISRAEL SO THESE THINSG WE MUST KNOW. THE PROPHT MUHAMAD PEACE BEUPN HI WAS ALSO IN THE TRADITION OF ISRAEL WHEN HE IN- VITED THOSE KINGS OF AFRICA THE MID EAST TO SEEK REDEMPTION WITH OUR"ALL MIGHTY GOD" AS HEAD OF ALL STATES. ISLAM BROUGHT FORWARD THE REDEMPTION OF WHAT ISRAEL FAILED TO DO. ISLAM IS A CONTIUATION OF THE VALUES OF ISRAEL THE SAME TRADITONAS OUR BELOVED BROTHER AND GREAT ARCHITEC CHRIST WHOM WAS TRULY BELOVED PEACE ALSO VEUPON HIM". THERE IS NO CONTRADICTION IN ISRAEL TRUE ISRAEL OR ISLAM. THE ONLY TRUTH IS THAT WE IN AFRICA SHOUDL STOP USING THE WORD CHRISTIAN AS IT DOES NOT IDENTIFY WITH OUR TRUE BELIEFS WE ARE FOLLOWERERS OF THE "ALL MIGHTY GOD" AND WE BELIVE INTHE SMAE PRINCIPLES AND TEACHING OF SHRIST ORU BELOVED. THE TRUTH IS THAT CHRIST WAS NOTR CHRISTAIN AS HE DID NOT WORSHIP HIMSLEEF!!!!. HE WAS A FIRST A NAZARITE BUT AN ISRAELITE THEUOF THE MONTHEISTIC PRACTICES WHICH HAD "OUR LORD THE ALL MIGHTY GOD AS OUR EVER LIVING KING OF ALL CREATION" THESE ARE AFRICAN VALUES AND SHOULD BE TAUGHT AS AFRICAN VALUES NT TO BE MISINTERPRETED OR MISUSED FOR ANY OTHER AGENDA THAN THE TRUTH" WE MUST SELECT TODAY WHAT IT IS THAT HAS THWARTED US FOR MANY GENERATIONS AND GETTHEM RIGHT. WE MUST CEASE FROM WAR MISCHIEF HATRED ANGER AND RUMOURMONEGER5ING IT DOEES NOT BEGET US . WE ARE EARTHS MOST CIVILSZED WE ARE THE BIRTH FATHERS AND MOTHERS OF ALL LIVING HUMANITY, IT IS OUR DUTY TO RECAPTURE OUR GLORY AND GET THE RECORD STARIGHT. WE WEE NOT MEANT TO BE WHAT WE ARE TODAY. HOWEVER WE MUST GIVE "ALL MIGHTY GOD" THANKS FOR SHOWING US HIS MANY MARVELS AND WE MUST TAKE THINSG FOR GRANTED. IT IS TIEM FOR PEACE TO REGING ON THE BLESSED OF ALL CONTIENENTS ,WAKE UP MY PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Eritrea is being punished because it's a terrorism sponsor State and the MOST egregious violator of Human Rights in the continent of Africa! A country which kidnaps and traffics its own citizens for financial gain!!
Eritrea is being punished because it's a terrorism sponsoring State and the MOST egregious violator of Human Rights in the continent of Africa! A country which kidnaps and traffics its own citizens for financial gain!! It can't get any worse than that!
THE SAME ROTTEN STEW, IN DIFFERENT POT.
After WWII, the United Nations conducted a lengthy inquiry regarding the status of Eritrea, with the superpowers each vying for a stake in the state's future. Britain, the last administrator at the time, put forth the suggestion to partition Eritrea between Sudan and Ethiopia, separating Christians and Muslims. The idea was instantly rejected by Eritrean political parties as well as the UN.[11].
And, then come the 50 years of CALCULATED INVESTMENT, forged alliances, fabricating wars, selling & profiting from arms.
"From the point of view of justice, the opinions of the Eritrean people must receive consideration. Nevertheless, the strategic interests of the United States in the Red Sea Basin and considerations of security and world peace make it necessary that the country [Eritrea] be linked with our ally, Ethiopia".
John Foster Dulles US State Secretary 1952 A UN plebiscite voted 46 to 10 to have Eritrea be federated with Ethiopia which was later stipulated on December 2, 1950 in resolution 390 (V). Eritrea would have its own parliament and administration and would be represented in what had been the Ethiopian parliament and would become the federal parliament. In 1961 the 30-year Eritrean Struggle for Independence began, following the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie I's dissolution of the federation and shutting down of Eritrea's parliament. The Emperor declared Eritrea the fourteenth province of Ethiopia in 1962.[12]
WHERE WAS YOUR UN WHEN ETHIOPIA ABOLISHED THE "UN FEDERATION", OCCUPIED ERITREA & TURNED ERITREA TO ARMAGEDDON?
Too bad, FALLING EMPIRES & DISCREDITED UN-MAFIA CAN NOT DECEIVE THE WORLD PUBLIC ANYMORE. The again, WHO IS GOING TO TELL THE KING IS NAKED? BTW; Here's some history lesson. As Secretary of State, Dulles spent considerable time building up NATO and forming other alliances (the "Pactomania") as part of his strategy of controlling Soviet expansion by threatening massive retaliation in event of a war, as well as building up friendships, including that of Louis Jefferson, who would later write a good-humored biography on Dulles. In 1950, he worked alongside Richard Nixon to reduce the French influence in Vietnam as well as asking the United States to attempt to cooperate with the French in the aid of strengthening Diem's Army. Over time he came to the conclusion that is was time to "ease France out of Vietnam"[9] In 1950 He also helped instigate the ANZUS Treaty for mutual protection with Australia and New Zealand. Dulles was strongly against communism, believing it was "Godless terrorism".[10] One of his first major policy shifts towards a more aggressive posture against communism, Dulles directed the CIA at this point now under the directorship of his brother Allen Dulles, in March 1953, to draft plans to overthrow the Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh in Iran [3]. This led directly to the Coup d'état via Operation Ajax in support of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran.
Dulles was also the architect of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) that was created in 1954. The treaty, signed by representatives of Australia, Britain, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and the United States provided for collective action against aggression. In that same year, due to his relationship with his brother Allen Dulles, the Director of CIA and a former member of the Board Of Directors of the United Fruit Company, based in Guatemala, Foster Dulles was pivotal in promoting and executing the CIA-led Operation PBSUCCESS that overthrew the democratically elected Guatemalan government of Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán. Dulles was one of the pioneers of massive retaliation and brinkmanship. In an article written for Life Magazine Dulles defined his policy of brinkmanship: "The ability to get to the verge without getting into the war is the necessary art." His critics blamed him for damaging relations with Communist states and contributing to the Cold War. Dulles upset the leaders of several non-aligned countries when on June 9, 1956, he argued in one speech that "neutrality has increasingly become an obsolete and, except under very exceptional circumstances, it is an immoral and shortsighted conception."
John Foster Dulles (February 25, 1888 – May 24, 1959) served as U.S. Secretary of State under President Dwight D. Eisenhower from 1953 to 1959. He was a significant figure in the early Cold War era, advocating an aggressive stance against communism throughout the world. He advocated support of the French in their war against the Viet Minh in Indochina and it is widely believed that he refused to shake the hand of Zhou Enlai at the Geneva Conference in 1954. He also played a major role in the Central Intelligence Agency operation to overthrow the democratic Mossadegh government of Iran in 1953 (Operation Ajax) and the democratic Arbenz government of Guatemala in 1954 (Operation PBSUCCESS).
50 YEARS LATER,,, THE SAME OLD STORY,,, THE SAME ROTTEN STEW, IN DIFFERENT POT. Tell me it ain't so?
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