28 July 2012

Kenya: Raila, Uhuru to Tie 50-50 in Run-Off

THE race for president in 2013 is getting tighter. Prime Minister Raila Odinga would tie with Uhuru Kenyatta in a second round run-off, according to the latest Infotrak survey. The survey indicated that no single candidate would win on the first round. Raila as consolidated his overall lead in the polls with 36.6 per cent of respondents saying they would prefer him as president, up from 35.0 per cent in May.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was a strong second with 21.9 per cent, up from 17.3 per cent in May. This would make him the most likely candidate to face Raila in a run-off, assuming that Uhuru's trial at the ICC does not prevent him from standing. And in that second round run-off, there would be a dead heat between Raila and Uhuru with each getting 50 per cent of the vote, Infotrak found in its poll.

Contrary to popular opinion, Musalia Mudavadi would not be a tougher second round opponent for Raila. The Infotrak survey indicated that Raila would win with 55 per cent of the vote compared to Musalia's 45 per cent. Infotrak found that Raila would beat Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka with 57 per cent of the vote in a run-off compared to 43 per cent.

The survey show that Raila would beat all other candidates with over 60 per cent of the vote in a run-off. In March, Raila would have beaten Uhuru with 52.5 per cent of the vote compared to 47.5 per cent so the DPM is still closing the gap. In June Uhuru launch his new party The National Alliance with fanfare and the slogan 'Believe'. The publicity may have helped boost his ratings.

Kalonzo is in third place in Infotrak poll with 9.6 per cent support, slightly ahead of William Ruto with 9.4 per cent. Mudavadi's support jumped in May to 8.5 per cent but has now settled at 8.4 per cent for June, indicating that his bandwagon may have slowed down. Martha Karua was next at 5.0 per cent; then Peter Kenneth at 2.3 per cent; Eugene Wamalwa at 1.2 per cent; Prof Ole Kiyapi at 0.7 per cent; Raphael Tuju at 0.7 per cent; Charity Ngilu at 0.4 per cent; and Mutava Musyimi at 0.1 per cent.

The Infotrak survey released yesterday was the first comprehensive county poll to be conducted with. A sample of 11,616 respondents was questioned across all 47 counties and 290 constituencies with 1.0 per cent margin of error. Infotrak also looked at which candidates could get 25 per cent uppposrt in at least 24 out of 47 counties, a constitutuioanl requiremetn to becopme president.

Only Raila crossed that bridge with over 25 per centr support in 27 counties. Uhuru managed 13 counties, Ruto eight counties, Kalonzo three counties, Mudavadi two counties, and the other candidtes no counties. Raila's support is concentrated in Coast, North-eastern, Western and Nyanza. Uhuru depends largely on Central where he has 60.5 per cent support. Kalonzo reelies on 39.6 per cent support in Eastern and Ruto on 30.5 per cent in Ruft Valley. Mudavadi has 34.1 pwer cent support in Westeern.

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