13 August 2012

Kenya: What Did Hillary Clinton Say?

It is crystal clear that Madam Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has specifically 'requested' that Neither Mr. Kenyatta nor Mr. Ruto should be on the ballot box in March. "The US Secretary of State has told the government that Mr Kenyatta and I are not supposed to run. She has also hinted that America will impose sanctions on us if we participate in the polls and win. This is dictatorship," said Mr. Ruto.

"It is not for foreigners nor for the courts to decide who should vie for the presidency, it is up to the over 40 million Kenyans," said Mr. Kenyatta.

The questions that an investor [both Local and International] need to ask;

1. Will either be on the ballot?

2. Do either have a chance of winning?

3. What will be the consequences and the blowback?

4. Is the national interest something higher than the candidacy of either?

The question of sovereignty is actually a red herring. If you are popping a lot of qualudes then maybe, you believe we are entirely sovereign. The world is all about the power equation and I am afraid we are a tiny little tadpole swimming with the sharks. The consequences of going toe to toe with the US, is to be seen in the end of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. And that end flashed around the world on Twitter, YouTube and the mobile phone. Today, the US has pointed an enormous amount of hard power at its other nemesis Ayatollah Khamenei.

Iran is cut off from SWIFT, they can only trade by barter. Iran has over $100b in reserves. We have between 1%-2% of that. The US does not countenance peer competitors. Any student of Geopolitics can tell you that. Are we even a peer competitor? If you look back over the last century of American power, you will notice that its been all about access to hydrocarbons.

I have mentioned for a while that I believe the last energy prize in this c21st of ours, is right here on the Eastern seaboard of Africa. The resource runs from Maputo through Mogadishu and all points in between. Apache Corp announced Friday that they are going to start to drilling off shore; "Spudding is imminent," Barry Rushworth, CEO of Pancontinental Oil and Gas, one of Apache's partners with a stake in the block, said in an email to Reuters.

The United States is not going to walk away and China might have bucketloads of cash but they do not have the hard power to protect our backs. In fact, the US has begun to encircle China. The consequences of being sanctioned by the United States are simply unconcionable. The economy will crater. There are 100 JSOC soldiers looking for Joseph Kony but that mission can be amended with a stroke of a pen.

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