Nairobi — The international community will need to be tougher with the successor to Meles Zenawi's leadership of Ethiopia to prevent negative consequences at both national and regional levels the International Crisis Group (ICG) has said in a report published on 22 August.
ICG said that the international community, particularly Ethiopia's key allies, the US, UK and European Union (EU), should play a leading role in shaping and encouraging the new leadership if one of its most important regional allies is to remain stable.
Zenawi and his predominantly Tigrayan clique from the north of the country, ruled Ethiopia since 1991 after toppling the Communist Derg regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam.
Hailemariam Desalegn, tasked to carry on Meles's duty until 2015, will lead a weaker regime facing mounting grievances along ethnic and religious lines and a likely increase in radicalism, the group said.
"Meles adroitly navigated a number of internal crises and kept the different TPLF [Tigrayan People's Liberation Front] factions under his tight control", says Emilio Manfredi, ICG's Ethiopia analyst.
"Now that he's gone, the weaknesses of the regime that he built are more likely to be exposed, and the repercussions could be felt across the region".
ICG said the new government in Ethiopia will most likely be more fragile causing massive impact across the region.
Accordingly, increasing internal instability could threaten the country's role as the West's key counter-terrorism ally in the Horn of Africa, putting into question its responsibility to military interventions in neighbouring Somalia and Sudan. It could further exacerbate tensions with arch foe Eritrea.
Divisions along ethnic and religious groups, could make the political system and society more unstable.
Should ethnic and religious extremism grow which possibly would link with other external armed radical Islamic groups, Ethiopia will, without Meles, fight back to control unrest that could easily spill beyond its borders.
Zenawis government was under increasing pressure due to intensifying repression of political, social, and ethnic and religious liberties and ICG analysts say that his Tigrayan elite could be forced to use more repression to keep control of other ethnic groups.
The government has also been been accused of stifling press freedom which eventually drove dozens of journalists into exile and gave others lengthy jail terms.
His successor, Desalegn, is seen as a more moderate figure, but analysts do not expect him to loosen his grip on the press.
"There are hard-liners in the [ruling] party and they wield a lot of influence," Mohammed Keita of the Committee Protect Journalists told Voice of America.
"I don't think Hailemariam is a hard-liner, but I'm sure he's under a lot of pressure so I don't know if he'll have a chance to really break with the past."
ICG noted a need from the West to extend political, military and development assistance to the opening of political space and an end to repressive measures further stressing the new Ethiopia leadership is shaped to lead an all-inclusive political landscape by conducting fair and free elections.
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Holding people accountable for inflammatory messages and hate speeches is the responsible of any government. Those who oppossed Melese are self interested and greedy people who seem to have gained a voice in the West. Even Mengistu Haile Mariam who buthcered thousands of innocent people is now claiming he is a saint. Their short sightedness is so acute they cannot even acknowledge the difference that Melese made to the common Ethiopian.
Dear Andom, I was an Ethiopian when you were shoe shiner for shaebia.I was an Ethiopian, when you call the rest of Ethiopians Donkeys and aiming to create Abbay Tigray (greater Tigray) seceding from Ethiopia.How dare you compare your stupid Meles to those leaders ? are you out of your mind ? It is like comparing apple and stone.As you said it,if meles was removed by foreign powers ,I salute them for doing it.I hope they will clear Ethiopia from weyane thugs.If you hate white people,please don't come to their country.don't beg them day and night for food assistance.stay in Tigray and eat your kulkual.
It is now becoming very apparent that ICG is clearing the way for US and UK to install their puppet government that will help kick China out and Capitalism in to Ethiopia and then to Africa. Do you think we are morons? You dissolved the body of the brilliant Pan Africanist, Patrice Lumumba in sulfuric acid just to enslave Africa. We all also know what you did to the brillaint son of Ghana, Kwame Nkurma back in 1960s. Now after nearily fifty your evil practice seems to be repeated on the life of President Mills and Prime Minister Zenawi. When are you going to stop your sabotage on Africa. You may call yourself a human-right group, crisis management group or what not, but we clearily understand that you are the new era "Berlin Conventionist" working hard to enslave africa with a different tactic than the Scrambling of the late 1800s. If you really care about human dignity and rights you may need to start from improving the life of African-Americans and Native Indians who are suffering under the racist administration of the US. Please stop exterminating Pan Africanists from the face of the earth. Let Africans decide on their fate, not the white men for Africans. We are very curiously watching your next step. I bet the unlucky Musevini and Kigame are the next on your slaughtering table.
My African brothers, I kindly ask you to look into this matter carefully. The US House and Senate has recently passed versions of a bill (HR 5986 and S 3326) that extend some African trade preferences under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. Meanwhile they also know that, with presence of strong leaders in Africa and high involvemnet of China, this bill will have no meaning. They are working hard towards weak African goverment and removal of China from the African continent. It is high time to talk about and how President Mills of Ghana and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia could die from similar and yet undisclosed short lived health complications right after their visit to the US. Read the history of Patrice Lumumba and let me know what you were able to correlate. Most interestingly our hero Patrice Lumumba was executed by the joint operation of US (Operation Wizard) and Belgium (Operation Barracuda), like wise President Meles died afetr a brief visit to the US and while being treated under a Belgian hospital. President Eisenhower of the US has admitted on his order of Operation Barracuda. I'm hoping to hear Obama's confession on his order to the new operation. And ICG keep on clearing the way to feed the greed of Imperialism. Merciless creatures!
Dear Andom,I am your fellow Ethiopian with different view.Meles zenaw never been a pan African leader.Instead he was narrow minded tribalist,who installed minority ethnic based, Apartheid style regime in Ethiopia.During his time,Meles killed,Arrested,tortured,expelled almost all opposition figures and journalists whom critics to his Stalinist style regime.Under TPLF regime,life is very difficult in Ethiopia.unemployment, inflation,sky rocketed.Andom,it doesn't matter how much you hate the west,your Meles was there serving the West and the East not Ethiopians.So don't blame ICG for telling the truth.Thanks ICG for telling the truth the way it is,We love you all.
@ Addis,
I doubt you're an Ethiopian at all. If in case you are, you must be one of the grandsons of the bandas who used to sell egg for Italian soldiers - genetically betrayers. An African mother that gave birth to Julius Nierere, Kenneth Kaunda, Nelson Mandela, Nkurma, Lumumba, Mugabe, Mills and Meles is certainly ashamed to have you from her womb. Be a man! Don't beg a white man to rescue you. If you are unhappy with the way Africa is run, show us your alternatives with a real African talent, not with a borrowed brain from those ill spirited evil white men. Be an African man, if you can!
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