The Namibian (Windhoek)

Namibia: Rainfall Chances Looking Good

MOST of Namibia is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the coming rainy season, according to a regional rainfall forecast which has been released by the Meteorological Service of Namibia.

The greater part of Namibia - with the western areas of the country the exception - is expected to have only a 25 per cent probability of receiving below average rainfall during the rainy season from October to March next year.

For the western parts of the country the outlook is not as good, with the probability of a below average rainy season for these areas estimated at 35per cent .

The seasonal rainfall outlook has been prepared by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, and covers the Southern African Development Community's major rainfall season from October to March.

A weak El Ni-o-Southern Oscillation climate pattern is projected to persist in the eastern Pacific Ocean into the early part of 2013, according to the seasonal outlook prepared by the region's weather offices.

The El Ni-o phenomenon is associated with drier than normal rainy seasons in most of southern Africa.

In the coming rainy season, it is expected that the bulk of Namibia - with the western parts of the country and the Caprivi Region excluded - would from October to December have a 35 per cent chance of above average rainfall, a 40 per cent probability of normal rainfall, and a 25 per cent chance of below normal rainfall.

For the Caprivi Region and the western parts of Namibia - covering most of the Kunene Region, the western half of the Erongo Region, and about a third of the Hardap and Karas regions - a 25 per cent probability of above normal rainfall, 40 per cent chance of normal rainfall, and 35 per cent probability of below normal rainfall is being forecast from October to December.

In the period from January to March all of Namibia, except the western parts of the country, should have a 35 per cent chance of above normal rainfall, 40 per cent probability of normal rainfall, and 25 per cent probability of below normal rainfall.

Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall are projected for a bigger part of the western areas - including the Kunene Region, about half of the Erongo Region, and the western parts of the Hardap and Karas regions - from January to March.

In these areas, it is expected that the chances of above normal rainfall would be 25 per cent from January to March, for normal rainfall would be 40 per cent, and for below normal rainfall would be 35 per cent.

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