2 October 2012

Kenya: Uhuru to Beat Raila in Run-Off - Poll

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would beat ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga if the two faced-off in an anticipated run-off.

According to a poll survey released by Ipsos Synovate Kenya this morning, Uhuru would beat Raila garnering 50 percent of the vote to Raila's 42 percent. Raila would also lose in a run-off with UDF's Musalia Mudavadi. Musalia would win 47% to 44%.

Uhuru and his party TNA have risen significantly in popularity according to the polls. Uhuru's standing has risen by seven percent to 30 percent, up from the 23 percent he scored in July. From the population sample through which the survey was conducted, TNA enjoys a 27 percent support base across all provinces.

The poll puts Uhuru second after Raila Odinga who is still the leading candidate by 36 percent up from 33 percent in July. ODM also continues to lead in popularity by 35 percent across all eight provinces. However the results show that Raila leads in all provinces except Central and Eastern Provinces.

Musalia Mudavadi is placed in third position by seven percent followed by William Ruto with six percent, Kalonzo Musyoka with five percent, Martha Karua having three percent, and Peter Kenneth with one percent. Eight percent of the population is undecided.

TNA proved its popularity in the September 11 by-elections. The party bagged two of the three parliamentary seats that were contested. TNA won Kangema and Kajiado constituencies while ODM took Ndiwa constituency.

PNU's recent declaration of not fielding candidates but instead backing Uhuru's presidential bid has added to TNA's growing popularity.

While ODM is still popular with the electorate, the party will be concerned about the growing public disaffection within the party that has resulted to defections to rival parties.

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