Abidjan — The sudden overthrow of a democratically elected government in Mali in the spring of 2012 by a small group of military insurgents is symptomatic of the reemerging pattern of coups d'état which have hit Africa in recent years. Since the years of independence, Africa has experienced more than 200 military coups, counting both successful and failed coup attempts.

The political and economic conditions prevailing in different African countries and the foreign influences at work during different periods have all played a part in fueling conflicts and coups in the region.

As part of research conducted by the Statistics Complex of the AfDB, the bank found that of the 51 African states selected, only 10 countries have never experienced a coup d'état (successful, attempted, or plotted), these are: Botswana, Cape Verde, Egypt, Eritrea, Malawi, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa, and Tunisia.

Significantly in the past 52 years, 80% of the selected countries have experienced at least one coup or failed coup attempt, and 61% have suffered several military coups (ranging from 2 to 10 in number).

This poses a number of questions: What makes Africa such a volatile region and what sociopolitical conditions nurture the seedbed of dissent? Is there a discernible pattern of events that could help predict when military coups are most likely to occur? And, most importantly, are there any measures that governments could take to mitigate this risk?

Click here for a copy of the research paper and the broad based recommendations made by the AfDB.