13 November 2012

Kenya: Safaricom Likely to Close Past Sh5 By Year End

The Nairobi all share eased 0.03 points off a 17 month closing high to close at 92.913. The all share is +36.576% in 2012. The Nairobi NSE20 eased 7.62 points off a 19 month closing high to close at 4152.11. The NSE20 is +29.547% in 2012. Equity turnover was 315.910m versus 286.211m.

In Commercial and Services

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and closed unchanged at 4.80 and traded 21.652m shares worth 104.678m.

Safaricom rallied 7.87% the previous session. Safaricom is +70.169% on a total return basis in 2012 and released strong first half earnings Thursday after the closing bell.

After yesterday's pause for breath, I expect a push beyond 5.00 before year end. Safaricom is at a level last reached in January 2011 and hence this is a 22 month high.

Kenya Airways closed unchanged at 11.70 and traded 152,300 shares. Demand versus supply are in balance and I think Kenya Airways has all the negative news baked into the price and hence positive surprises will see the price rally from here. Nation Media firmed 0.44% to close at 228.00. Nation Media traded shares as high as 248.00 +9.25% intra day.

Among banks

Kenya Commercial Bank traded third at the Exchange. KCB closed unchanged at 30.00 and traded 649,000 shares worth 19.505m. Kenya Commercial Bank had buy side demand at the finish line for 487% more shares than were traded during the session signaling the price is well supported here.

Kenya Commercial Bank is +89.020% on a total return basis in 2012 and is 0.769% below 30.25 a 53 month closing high from October 29th.

Standard Chartered firmed 0.88% to close at 230.00 and traded 6,000 shares. Equity Bank closed unchanged at 24.25 and traded 78,800 shares.

Barclays Bank fell back 2.931% to close at 14.90 and traded shares at an intra day low of 14.55 -5.21% into the closing bell. Barclays Bank traded 398,400 shares.

City Trust traded second at the Securities Exchange and firmed 0.8475% to close at 357.00 and traded 225,300 shares [4.886% of its shares] worth 80.648m, which is a material Position.

Jubilee Insurance firmed 2.36% to close at 173.00 and traded 104,800 shares worth 18.13m. Jubilee is +23.57% in 2012 and trades on a trailing PE of 5.226. PanAfrica Insurance traded 103,000 shares all at 40.00 and +3.23%.

Industrial and Allied

EABL rallied 0.8333% to close at 242.00. EABL traded 74,700 shares worth 18.088m. Buy side demand outweighed supply by a factor of 2 versus 1. EABL is +45.639% in 2012 and the price having crossed its previous all time high of 240.00 from July 5th this year projects at least to 260.00.

KPLC firmed 0.95% to close at 18.40 and traded 715,800 shares worth 13.201m. KenGen rallied 2.5833% to close at 9.95 and traded 965,700 shares worth 9.649m.

This is a 52 week closing high and a constructive chart pattern. East African Portland followed on Friday's 9.87% Rally with a further 8.98% gain making that am 18.85% two-session rally. Portland traded 100 shares at 45.50. --

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