Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo will lead the New Patriotic Party to capture power from the National Democratic Congress, when the nation goes to the polls on Friday, December 7, according to the latest opinion poll conducted by Research International, a London-based market research company with offices in 50 countries, in the original 230 constituencies, before the additional 45 seats were ushered in by the controversial C.1. 78.
Research International reckons that the ruling NDC would be pushed into opposition for the second time since democratic governance returned to the body politic in 1993, after eleven and a half years of the 'Culture of Silence.'
President John Dramani Mahama and his ruling NDC are destined to capture 46.9%, well short on the 50 percent plus one vote needed to remain at Government House.
The combined responses of those likely to vote for the Convention People's Party, the People's National Convention and the Progressive People's Party, amounted to slightly lower than one percent.
Research International conducted the fieldwork from Sunday September 16 to Monday, October 15, using a very large sample size of 4,600 respondents from all the previous 230 constituencies, using Stratified Random Sampling.
The research has a confidence level of 98 percent, and error margin of plus or minus 1.8 percent. Fieldworks in seven constituencies were delayed until November 2, 2012, "due to interview resignations and equipment failure.
Field works, according to Research International, were done with smart phones, giving GPS locations and times of interviews. Results were automatically uploaded to avoid interviewer interventions. Skips and fills were automatically programmed, according to the research company.
Respondents were asked a simple question: "If elections were held today, how likely are you to vote for which party's presidential candidate?"
Respondents were given the option to range their responses from Very Likely, Likely, Somewhat Likely, Not Sure, Somewhat Unlikely, Unlikely, and Very Unlikely, to Refused.
Only respondents who declared the intention to vote for a party based on Very Likely or Likely to vote in 2012 were captured in the sample.
As many as 50.4 percent of males were captured in the sample, with 49.5 percent females. 79 percent of respondents were Christians, 17 percent Muslims, two percent traditional and other believers, while two percent of the respondents did not believe in any religion.
The research found that 40 percent of Christians polled were likely to vote for the NDC, as against 56 percent, who said they would vote for the NPP. Among Muslim respondents, 63 percent said they would vote for the NDC, against 39 percent who said they would vote for Nana Akufo-Addo and his NPP. 75 percent of traditionalists opted to vote for the NDC, while 39 percent answered that they would vote for the NPP.
The younger generation opted for the NPP, while the grand oldies appear to opt for the NDC. According to Research International, nearly 60 percent of 18 and 19 year-olds would vote for the NPP, against 40 percent of their age mates who opted for the NDC. Among 20-24 year-olds, 56 percent prefer the NPP to 41 percent who answered that they would vote for the NDC. In the 24-29 age bracket, 52 percent opted for the NPP against 46 percent for the NDC.
In the 30-34 age bracket, 45 percent of respondents said they would vote for the NDC, against 50 percent who answered that they would vote for the NPP. The respondents appeared to be evening out as the researchers hit the 45-49 age bracket.
49 percent of this age bracket opted for the NDC, while 51 percent of their age mates said they would vote for the NPP. From there, the table tilts towards the NDC, as respondents' piled on the age.
As many as 54 percent of the 50-54 age bracket rooted for John Mahama and his NDC, while 47 percent prefer the NPP. In the 55-59 age bracket, as many as 52 percent said they would vote for the NDC, with only 39 percent voting for the NPP. 53 percent of 60 and above answered that they would vote for the NDC, against only 41 percent for the NPP.
Research International established that people without education in Ghana were more likely to vote for the NDC than the NPP, while the educated class opts for the NPP. Among people who cannot read and write, as many as 58 percent answered that they would vote for the NDC, while 44 percent said they would vote for the NPP.
For people with basic education, 44 percent answered that they would vote for President Mahama and his NDC, while 52 percent said they would vote Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and his NPP into power.
Respondents with second cycle education gave the thumbs-up to the NPP by 54 percent to NDC's 41, while the well educated class, with university training, was unanimous in their endorsement of the NPP.
58 percent of university educated Ghanaians told Research International that they would vote for the NPP, while 42 percent answered that they would vote for the NDC.