20 November 2012

Kenya: Market Flashing Amber Over Security Situation

The Nairobi all share eased 0.33 points to close at 92.26. The all share is +36.6166% in 2012 has corrected 0.73165% off a 17-month closing high from the 9th of this month.

The Nairobi ^NSE20 Index shaved off 8.05 points to close at 4147.94. The ^NSE20 Index is +39.3915% in 2012 and is 0.30164% off a 20-month closing high from the 15th of this month. Equity Turnover remained elevated at 498.187m versus 474.188m.

The Equity indices have floated higher on an increased allocation by foreign investors who have bought a net amount of stocks valued at Sh26.4 billion in the period between January and October this year. Local investors have been on the sidelines in the expectation that the markets would be soft ahead of the election in 2013.

However, the indices were egregiously oversold in 2011. Foreign investors have been increasing Africa allocation throughout 2012 and this is evidenced in a selection of index returns.

The bull market might wobble if the current implosion in the internal security situation starts to tip [any more]. Its flashing amber.

In Agriculture:

Rea Vipingo rallied 7.297% to close at 19.85 and traded 1,000 shares. Rea Vipingo is +45.48611% on a total return basis in 2012 and trades on a trailing PE of 2.548.

In Commercial and Services:

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and retreated 1.08% to close at 4.60. Nation Media firmed 0.8466% to close at 239.00 which is a fresh 53 month closing high.

Nation Media traded 55,000 shares worth 13.19m. Nation Media is +77.14285% on a total return basis in 2012. Among Banks Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 30.25 and traded 1.413m shares worth 42.772m.

Barclays Bank firmed 0.66% to close at 15.40 and traded 1.071m shares worth 16.513m. Barclays Bank trades on a trailing PE of 10.362.

Standard Chartered improved 0.43% to close at 236.00 and traded 60,200 shares worth 14.242m. This is a fresh 1 -month closing high. Trancentury traded 544,400 shares worth 12.521m and all at 23.00 and unchanged.

Industrial and Allied:

EABL closed unchanged at 241.00 and traded 3rd with 317,800 shares worth 76.899m traded. The Weighted Average was 241.98 and was rounded down on closing.

EABL is a shilling off its record closing high of 242.00 from 12th through 15th this month. I expect a move through 260.00 before year end.

Kenya Power traded fifth and closed unchanged at 18.25 and traded 1.695m shares worth 31.010m. KenGen closed unchanged at 9.60 and traded 2.694m shares worth 25.864m.

KenGen targets chart resistance and a 15 month high of 10.00. Mumias Sugar rallied 3.60% to close at 5.75 and traded 3.115m shares worth 17.959m.

Mumias Sugar trades on a trailing PE of 4.371 and bargain hunters evidently feel that the discount to the NSE average PE is too wide. Sameer was ticked 4.23% higher to close at 3.70 on 5,300 shares whose economic Value was $228.00.

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