Zimbabwe: National Budget Review

analysis

If there is one thing that has been consistent about the budgets issued by the current Minister of Finance, it is that each subsequent budget carries forward themes from the previous ones, and demonstrates an increasing understanding of the complexities that are the Zimbabwean economy at present.

The last one was no different, and makes one wish that the Minister could get another five years to fully evolve his strategy.

What the Minister lacks in formal financial and economics education, he makes up for in his simple but highly effective strategy of getting to understand most or all the issues, and proffering the best solution possible given limited resources. There is no doubt that there are many things that could have been done better, but that perhaps reflects the lack of creativity and intellectual capacity in the line ministries than in the Ministry of Finance itself.

In Zimbabwe, the tendency has been to see the budget as a means of distributing money, as opposed to it being a means of controlling the economy and making it grow. Submissions will therefore invariably be focused on getting allocated as much money as possible, instead of actually applying minds to prevailing problems, and coming up with viable solutions in the face of limited resources. As it stands, most of what we perceive as being our problems do not actually require money to solve, but a change in mindsets and ways of doing things. This budget aptly captured this aspect.

The Minister's theme "Beyond the enclave: Unleashing Zimbabwe's Economic Growth Potential" perhaps best sums up what he was attempting to do in what could potentially be his last statement. As with his previous statements, it is not possible to summarise the statement, because there were several very specific items that were touched on, and it covered practically every area of the economy. Some of the disturbing revelations were that poverty is at 72 percent of the population, and Gross domestic product per capita stands at US$370. Wheat production which was 53 000 tonnes in 2011 is going down to 17 000 tonnes this year, against a national requirement of 450 000 tonnes.

While most sectors were generally looking weak, the mining sector stands out as the only one in which there has been true recovery. The sector's average annualised growth rate has been in excess of 30 percent, and this is an indicator of what should be happening economy-wide if we were truly in recovery mode. The same growth has been noted in tobacco and cotton.

The Minister identified what he called the "five binding constraints on our economy": electricity supply, finance, balance of payments, politics and poverty. He also mentioned right at the onset what is perhaps the most important: unity of purpose. The rest of his presentation basically revolved around these constraints, and ways of working around them.

On electricity supply, the 2011 Enterprise Survey was said to have indicated that 47 percent of firms ranked it as a "severe constraint to business". It appears the picture in this regard is not set to improve until 2016. Without consistent power supplies, manufacturing, irrigated agriculture and horticulture are dead in the water. The prepaid meter solution will partially address this, but roll-out of power projects is the only sure answer.

The issue of finance received significant attention throughout the budget, but with non-performing loans being put at 13 percent of banks' loan books as of the third quarter, there definitely need to be alarm bells ringing. Non-performing loans are the last category in terms of loans going bad, and there will also be poorly performing, and overdue loans that also come into the picture, meaning that most banks are probably working in very confined spaces, as far as liquidity is concerned.

The impact of poisoned politics on the economy tends to get exaggerated, not surprising perhaps because there is a vested interest for politicians to portray it as such, one way or the other. While politics wreaked havoc on planning and economic activity under the Zimbabwe dollar era, that is no longer the case. We have a more liberal economy than most African countries, and we have the most stable inflation on the continent. We use hard currencies and there are no exchange controls. So it baffles the mind when people talk of continuing uncertainty.

The reality of our situation is pretty much what the Minister spent most of his time talking about. We have a highly dysfunctional economy in terms of linkages and collaboration. Whether one looks at business-to-business interactions or business-to-customer, most of us prefer buying imported products to local ones. Banks prefer to lend to people going out to import competing products, than to local producers who generate the deposits in the first place. Our national motto seems to be "foreign is lekker!"

The banking sector, which received a torrent of retribution for not playing ball with the authorities (and with everyone else, for that matter), has failed to intermediate in a way that is beneficial and constructive, as far as fuelling growth is concerned. Besides the lashings, the Minister did dangle some carrots in the form of paid up permanent shares incentives, as well as incentives for picking deposits that have longer tenure than 90 days. It would have been ideal had these incentives been placed for tenures beyond one year, but that is perhaps input for another year.

The Minister also highlighted the high levels of financial exclusion, particularly of people in the rural areas. This is something the financial services sector needs to address if there is to be any growth outside of urban centres.

Business linkages or rather the lack thereof were correctly identified as being the missing link to greater synergy and productivity. The Minister went to great lengths to expound on what linkages are needed and in which sectors, to get our economy running. The long and short of it is that there were many linkages (which in essence are like your nuts and bolts in a piece of machinery) that were destroyed while we were revolutionising. We remained with most of the various parts in place, but they were no longer part of a functional whole. Pretty much like a disassembled vehicle; unlikely to get you anywhere.

Perhaps for the first time, small to medium enterprises (SMEs) received more than just passing mention of their Ministry's allocation in the budget. The Minister highlighted the key role that SMEs can play in reviving the economy, and even set up funds meant to assist them to revive. He acknowledged their invaluableness in any sustainable programme of business linkages but highlighted the need for greater coordination of the sector. They featured in his 15 point plan - even if they were right at the bottom position.

In summary, this budget was a frank assessment of the challenges that the economy faces, and more importantly contained several pragmatic measures meant to address some of these. The Minister also indicated that there were other issues presented which they would continue working on. This approach is the only way in which our challenges can be addressed: a continuous process of engagement and policy refinement. Any other way, and one will be accused of having policy inconsistencies. Eventually, if all minds and hearts are in the right place, we will eventually get to our destination.

Farai Mutambanengwe is the founding chairperson of the SME Association of Zimbabwe. For details on the association see www.smeassociationzimbabwe.co.zw or e-mail

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