6 December 2012

Kenya: NSE Index Rise Signals Market Has Completed

The Nairobi All Share eased a further 0.12 points to close at 91.86. The Nairobi All Share has been on a losing streak since closing at a 17 month high on November 26th.

The Nairobi All Share is +35.02866% in 2012 and has corrected 2.1725% since the 26th of November. The correction has been orderly and the bull market remains in tact. The Nairobi NSE20 rose 0.98 points to close at 4057.39.

The NSE20 is +26.5834% in 2012 and todays small turn higher is signalling that the market might have completed a correction. Equity turnover was 469.216m.

EABL closed at a record high and investors have been in an intense love affair with the stock all year and I expect the intensity to increase through year end and into next year.

In Agriculture

Rea Vipingo rose 2.432% to close at 18.95 and traded 45,500 shares. Rea Vipingo is +38.754% in 2012, trades on a Trailing PE of 2.4337 and announced today that it intends to produce 48 megawatts of power from 24 turbines in Kilifi where it has a sisal estate.

Eaagads rebounded 4.49% to close at 23.25 and traded 400 shares. I estimated that its grasslands which total 149.737ha is worth approximately $10.00 a share. The share price at 23.25 is trading at 27 US cents a share.

In Commercial and Services

Safaricom traded 3rd at the exchange and eased 0.99% to close at 5.00.

Kenya Airways closed unchanged at 11.30 and traded 43,100 shares. Everything is a known known and baked into the price and hence the resilience today.

Among Banks

Standard Chartered Bank traded 2nd at the exchange and closed unchanged at 236.00. Standard Chartered traded 307,800 shares worth 72.671m.

The recently completed and oversubscribed Rights Issue has increased supply and led to an uptick in volumes. Standard Chartered is +58.333% on a total return basis and is 1.255% below an 18 month high from November 21st this year.

Standard Chartered trades on a Trailing PE of 11.8892 and accelerated Q3 PAT +66.622%, which makes the forward PE very compelling.

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 27.50 and Equity Bank closed unchanged at 23.00 while Barclays Bank eased 0.345% to close at 14.45.

In Industrial and Allied

EABL regained its all time high to close at 247.00 +0.4065% and traded 89,000 shares. EABL traded an intra day high of 248.00 +0.81% which is a fresh all time intra day high.

EABL traded 24,200 shares and there was buy side demand for 1000% more than that at the closing bell. EABL is +48.456% in 2012 and investors remain in an intense love affair with the stock and I expect the love affair to gain in intensity.

Bamburi Cement was the most actively traded share at the securities exchange. Bamburi Cement firmed 1.1266% to close at 179.00 and traded 533,100 shares [0.1468% of its shares] worth 95.573m.

Bamburi Cement is +51.2% on a total return basis in 2012 and sits 3.24% below its 20 month closing high of 185.00 from July 25th this year.

Bamburi Cement has witnessed a spike in volumes of late, trades on a Trailing PE of 12.4654 and reported an H1 profit after tax deceleration of -13.535%.

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