15 January 2013

Angola: Current Accounts to Record Akz 405,4 Billion Deficit - Study

Luanda — The Angolan Government current accounts will record an Akz 405,4 billion deficit, which will be the country's first negative balance since 2009, Angop learned.

This is the conclusion of a study carried out by the Non-Governmental Organisation "Acção para o Desenvolvimento Rural e Ambiente" (ADRA) and the Angola Political and Social Observatory (OPSA).

According to the study, the above mentioned deficit, equivalent to 3,4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the result of the gap between the current revenues of Akz 4.570,4 billion (38,2 % of GDP) and expenditures of 4.975,8 billion (41,6 % of GDP).

"Except for contrary indication, the accounts exclude the financial operations like loans and are, in the view of the commitments, that is the expenditures are accounted for in the year in which they are authorized, although not paid in that very year," says the study whose results were unveiled in Luanda on Monday by the economist Carlos Rosado.

In his review of the State Budget for 2013, ADRA and OPSA come to the conclusion that, considering a rate of Exchange of Akz of Usd of 100 %, the revenues are expected to rise to Usd 45.704 billion and expenditures of Usd 49.758 billion, with a correspondent deficit of 4,1 billion.

When comparing the 2013 State Budget with the estimates of the performance of the 2012 State Budget, revenues drop by 4,1 percent, while the public expenditures travel otherwise, rising 26,7 percent, says the study.

Meanwhile, ADRA/OPSA say, the surplus of AKZ 839,6 billion of last year, showing a deterioration of the current account and a strongly expansionist budgetary policy.

"The increase in the public expanditures by Akz 1.048,8 billion (26,7%) is higher than the very GDP that rises 932,1 billion only, corresponding to 8,5%" - reads the study in its chapter on Angolan current accounts.

On the other hand, the study says that the apparent expansionist trend increases the pressure on the money in circulation and, as a result, n the inflation, posing an enormous challenge for the monetary authority.

According to the study, one of the factors of the country vulnerability in the 2008 crisis may have been the monetary policy adopted by the Angola Reserve Bank (BNA), in the face of the expansionism of the budgetary policy.

This stand, the study adds on, can not be repeated, or else it will undermine the progresses reached in the fight of inflation that dropped to nine percent in 2012.

As a result, according to the study, the pressure on the liquidity of the economy that follows the strong growth in the public expenditures in 2013, will be aggravated by the new exchange rules that will force the oil companies to pay through local banks accounts.

"This double pressure will pose a test to the autonomy of the BNA in face of the political power," it is said.

As a result, the capacity of the BNA in contrasting or neutralising the apparent expansionist trend will play a decisive role in the stability of the prices.

Expecting expenditures and revenues of Akz 6.6 trillion, against the Akz 4.5 trillion of 2012, the State Budget for 2013 represents 55,5% from the point of view of the relation to the Gross Domestic Product.

The Social sector will get 33,5%, followed by Administration with 23% and Defence and Economy with 18%.

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