Is Al-Qaeda about to bring terrorism to Europe's backyard in North Africa?
The intervention of French military forces in Mali and the apparent reprisals in the form of the hostage crisis at the In Amenas gas processing plant in Algeria have brought the threat of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to international attention.
The drama of the hostage crisis has shot the hitherto unknown group 'Signatories in Blood' and its leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar, variably referred to as an Islamist with ties to bin Ladin and/or a senior al-Qaeda leader, to notoriety overnight and has prompted Western leaders to focus on the possibility of a growing threat of Islamist terrorism on Europe's southern border. Such tragic events are bound to provoke a strong reaction, yet, upon closer examination, it seems that the idea of a threat to mainland Europe is overstated.
Even at a glance, the nature of the attack - hostage-taking for financial gain - is not the kind we have come to associate with al-Qaeda over the years. Rather than reflecting the "signature" suicide attack with mass casualties, the event fits more appropriately into the series of other hostage-takings that have taken place in Algeria in recent years but which have not been on so grand a scale and hence have not gained the same attention as events at In Amenas.
It is not only the events which are different: the particular branch of al-Qaeda to which they have been ascribed, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), formerly known as the GSPC (Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat - Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat) stands out for its focus on a local agenda.
Although it has allegedly claimed that it supports Osama bin Ladin, the group, which was found to be responsible for car bombings that took place in Algiers in 2007, as well as a number of other local incidents, appears to be more concerned with the goal of overthrowing the Algerian government and the institution of an Islamic state in its place than with bin Ladin's vision of the reestablishment of the caliphate and global jihad against the West.
While it can be argued that the above is not entirely out of touch with al-Qaeda's stated aims, it is nonetheless a return to the "near enemy" - the forces of occupation and secularisation - that have preoccupied Islamists for almost a century.
While the AQIM's claim to be acting in the name of "al-Qaeda central" feels very much like a convenient piece of flag-waving, current al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri declared in 2006 that America and France were the enemies, indicating a pragmatic approach by which senior al-Qaeda leaders aim to flatter their local affiliates, enabling one side to continue to maintain the impression of its global reach while the other benefits from association with the infamous name. The true extent of any link or co-operative strategy, however, remains open to question.
If there is little evidence to suggest genuine cooperation between AQIM and the senior leadership of al-Qaeda, the connection between al-Qaeda and Belmokhtar and his Signatories in Blood is even more tenuous.
Sometimes referred to as "Marlboro man" for his cigarette-smuggling exploits, Belmokhtar has a wide-ranging and impressive criminal career which includes drug trafficking, diamond smuggling and the kidnapping of dozens of Westerners, such as diplomats, aid workers and tourists, for ransoms of up to $3 million each. Yet Belmokhtar's success and growing influence were to be his downfall as far as his membership of AQIM was concerned.
While his actions at In Amenas supposedly link Belmokhtar to al-Qaeda in the eyes of the West, he in fact made the news on various jihadist forums for falling out with AQIM for his "fractious behavior", and either resigned or was formally dismissed from its ranks in late 2012. Such splintering is far from exceptional; indeed, it exemplifies the present state of al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), operating in Yemen, and the recently formed Ansar al-Sharia are a case in point: despite their different names and agendas, the two groups are frequently referred to as one and the same and are conceived of as somehow representing a joint force.
This bias amongst commentators towards presenting a united al-Qaeda in various regions of the world is conducive only to resurrecting the popular, yet deeply flawed theory that al-Qaeda operates on a global basis as a cohesive group, with all that this implies for the threat it poses to global security.
Today more than ever before, al-Qaeda and its local affiliates are highly fragmented and in disagreement as to their priorities of ideology and strategy.
Indeed, the lines of fragmentation only begin here: beyond the increasing internal debate, al-Qaeda and its local affiliates find themselves in direct contest with other, often more established Islamist groups with radically different worldviews and agendas, many of which now enjoy greater popularity because they are not so ready to spill the blood of their fellow Muslims.
Whilst the existence of groups such as The Signatories in Blood and the dramatic, violent nature of incidents such as mass hostage-takings and car-bombings heightens fears in the West of a resurgence of the al-Qaeda that caused so much death and destruction on 9/11, the truth is that most of today's al-Qaeda franchises have a much more limited vision.
Thus, when David Cameron announces that Britain must pursue the terrorists with an iron resolve, he unwittingly reinforces a notion of a unified Islamist threat that does not exist in that form in reality.
It is a convenient narrative which benefits both the propaganda machine of Islamists and the calls of those in the West who support military action, yet the true picture of those who claim to act in the name of al-Qaeda - both in Africa and elsewhere - is far more nuanced, and much less of a threat to Europe, than we are commonly led to believe.
Christina Hellmich is reader in International Relations and Middle East Studies at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Reading.
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Ma'am, your discussion around the fragmentation of the various AQ-affiliated terror groups is well founded. But I believe the discussion of the threat of these groups to Western interests should focus on the increasing influence that AQ is gaining with these groups. While it is well documented that AQIM/Boka Haram/AQAP have had fluctuating/wavering cooperation with AQ proper, there seems to be no argument that AQ desires to improve its influence on these groups. And the real threats to the West will be the sleeper cells that AQ has waiting to conduct retaliatory attacks (Similar to what happened in Nigeria on 19 Jan). So pushing hard against these fringe groups in Africa will indeed increase the threat to the West, in my opinion.
" THANK YOU FOR A INTUTIVE PIECE WHICH IS BASED ON REALITY NOT ON THE FANTASY OF WESTERN BASED JOURNALISM AND THIER POLITICAL FANTASIS". WHERE THE WEST IS TODAY 'COMPLETE FAILURE AT HOME, DISARRAY. THEY ARE FAILING TO LOOK AFTER THIER CITIZENS THEY ARE FAILING TO EXACT ANY REAL TAXES FROM THE FAT CATS'; THEY USE THESE VERY FINITE "" THREATS TO EUROPE OR THEMSELVES', TO SELL TO THE PEOPLE AS A FORM OF DITRACTION; YOU WILL FIND THAT THEY EVEN GO TO WA!!!!!!!!. TAKING EVEN MORE FROM THE ALREADY DISTANCED POPULATIONS THEY ARE ALLEGED TO BE SERVING!>>> WHERE THIS TAKES AFRICA IS IN THE ABYSS OF THIS ALLEGED TERRORIST THREAT.SOMETHING THAT IS BEING FUELD BY THE WEST IN ORDER ALSO TO POST NATO TROOPS ON THE GORUND WITH THIS SO CALLED EXPRESS DESIRE "TO TRAIN AFRICAN SOLDIERS TO DEFEAT THE TERRORIST". WHAT THEY FORGET TO MENTION IS THAT THE TERRORISIT ARE NOT BEING TRAINED BY THEM BUT THEY HAVE A SPECTACULAR ARSENAL OF WESTERN WEAPONRY!!!!. AFRICA WITH THIER ZEST FOR EDUCATING THIER POPULATION, WARRING ON POVERTY, CORRUPTION, IS BEING SIDE TRACKED BY THESE TRICKS DOUBLE STANDARDS BY THE WEST SUBTERUFGE ALWAYS COMES TO MIND IN UNDERMINING AFRICAS NOW UPWARD MOBILITY IN ACHEIVING RECOG NITION AS A RESLLIENT PEOPLE". THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH DESTRUCTION DONE TO AFRICANS IT GOES BEYOND SPEECH!!!!! THE CRIMINALITY THAT HAS BEEN HEAPED UPON THE AFRICAN PEOPLE OVER THE LAST FIVE CENTURIES IS DIABOLICAL TO SAY THE LEAST!!!! AFRICANS ARE NOW HAVING TO PRRESERVE THIER SOVEREIGNTY BY A FAST ENCROUCHING WESTERN PROPOGANDA MACHINE AND THIER TERRIST ALLIES IN LIBYA WHERE THEY HAVE PROPELLED THESE TERRORIST TO POWER"." THEY DESTROYED WHAT WAS A STABLE DIVERSE ECONOMY SELF SUSTAINED FAR IN STATURE OF UPWARD MOBILITY TO ANY OF ITS CONETMPORARY AFRICAN STATES. LIBYA WAS NOT ONLY IMF FREE IT WAS THE ONLY AFRICAN NATION TO HAVE SECURED ANY REPARATIONS FROM THE WEST FOR ITS COLONIAL PAST!!!!!!!!!!!!. LIBYA WAS THE ONLY AFRICAN NATION TO SAY LET US USE OUR WEALTH TO REINFORCE OUR INDEPENDENCE LET GOLD BE STANDARD FOR OUR STRONG EXISTETNCE!!!!!! WHAT WE SEE NOW IS THE SELLING AND GIVING AWAY OF OUR RESOURCES INSTEAD OF THE INTER TRADING AND THE EDUCATING OF OUR CHILDREN!!!. WE NEED TO LEARN THE ARTS OF EXTRACTION REFINING AND MANAGING THE RESOURCES WE OWN". THERE WE NOW HAVEC A NEW PARADIGN WHERE THE USA IS TRYING TO SET UP BASES IN AFRICA AS WE SEE FRANCE DESPERATELY USING ITS FRENCH COLONIAL PAST TO UNDERMINE THE AFRICAN UNION' UNDERMINE AFRICAN UNITY INSISTING THAT FARNCOFONE SATES PPLEDGE THIER ALLIGAINCE TO FRANCE AND NOT AFRICA!... THERE IS ALREADY FRENCH BASES IN AFRICA, CHAD FOR TWO IVORY COAST AND NOW WE ARE SEEING WEST AFRICANS COMPETEING TO SELL OUT HTIER LANDS TO HEEGMONIST LIKE THE USA??????/. WHAT AFRICANS DO NOT REALISE THIS IS THE SAME OLD BERLIN CONFERNCE' WITH THIER SONS AS THE NEW PLAYERS"!!!! THEY ARE ALRAEDY TRYING TO TAKE OVER THE MNID EAST WITH TRUKEY AS ALLY THS AGAIN IS HISTORY REPEATING IT SELF"""" READ THE HISTORY THIS SAME COALITIONDURING THE 19TH CENTURY!!." DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE 19th CENTURY THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE COLUDED WITH EUROPENAS TO SET UP WHAT WE HAVE NOW AS THE MID EAST; THIS WAS PROCEEDED BY THE BERLIN CONFERENCE IN 1895 WHERE AFRICA WAS DISMANTLED WITH LINES DRWAN FOR A COLONIAL EUROPEAN DOMINATION OF AFRICA". WHAT WE SEE NOW IS THAT THEY HAVE SUPERIOR WEAPONRY SO THEY ARE DETERMINED TO RECOLONISE AFRICA WITH BASES. AS WE SEE THE INFLUX OF FRENCH TROOPS IN MALI WITH ALL THE NATO FORCES PRETENDING NOT TO BE INVOLVED BUT ARE SUPPLYING GIVING LOGISTICS AND ARE CONSPIRING FOR A FRENCH COLONIAL VICTORY'." WE CONTIUE TO SEE A HEGMONIST AGENDA BY NATO THE NEW WORLD TERRORIST ORGANISATION". NO MATTER HOW WE TRY TO LOO KAT THIS WE SEE HOW MANY BASES HAVE SPRUNG UP IN AFRICA AS IF OVERNIGHT'??? WE ARE CRAWLING WITH NATO AIR BASES OSTENSIBLY NOT ARMED DRONES???. ARE AFRICANS SO BACKWARDS THAT THEY DID NOT SEE THAT THEY WERE BEING USED AS INTELLIGENCE OVER THE CONTINENT IN WAYS TO DEFEAT AFRICANS WHEN THEY ARE REDAY FOR THIER NEO ?????. WHEN ARE AFRICANS GOING TO GET RID OF THESE PACIFIST WHO DO NOT KNOW WHAT PAN AFRICANISM IS'????? NOT ONLY WAS IT INTRODUCED BY KWAME NKRUMAH'; IT WAS ORIGINATED IN THE EARLY 1900s BY JAMAICAN MARCUS GARVEY' WHO LED THE ORGANISATION WITH THE LARGEST AMMOUNTS OF WORLD WIDE PAN AFRICANIST FROM THE AMERICAS TO AIUSTARLIA. TILL TODAY THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANOTHER ORGANISATION TO SURPASS THAT 22 MILLION MARK . WITH 22 ,000,000 DEVOTED MOSTLY WESTERN AFRICAN DIASPORA' , WHOSE PARENTS AND GRAND PARENTS WERE SLAVES OF THESE NATO COUNTRIES!!1. PAN AFRICANISM WAS BORN AS THE RIGHT FOR AFRICANS TO BE THE FOREMOST RULERS OF ALL AFRICA" .' A AFRICA FREE OF DOMINATION, WITH EDUCATED AFRICANS BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF ALL THINGS AFRICAN". TODAY WE STILL SEE THAT WHEN THEY SPEAK OF AFRICAN EXPERTS THEY DRAW FOR WHITE MEN ????? "TELL ME HOW IS THAT EVEN WORTHY OR EVEN CONSCIOUSLY POSSIBLE!!!!!!. THAT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE THIS GOES TO SHOW THAT THEY ARE NOT INETERESTED IN THE AFRICAN WAY THEY STILL WANT TO INDULGE THEMSELVES IN AFRICA AS ITS SUPERIORS." I SAY TO AFRICA WATCH WHAT YOU ARE DOING THERE IS A SLIPPERY SLOPE TO RECOLNISATION! AS WE SEE IN THE MID EAST THEY HAVE SUCCEEDED IN CREATING A VERY WIDE DIVISON IN WHICH THEY HAVE SECTARIAN VIO;LENCE AMONGST SUNNIAND SHIAS,; TODAY THERE ARE MISSILES ON THE BORDERS OF TURKEY WHICH IS OVER LOOKING ALL AFRIAC . MUST I REMIND YOU THAT THE MID EAST WAS AFRICA STILL IS AFRICA SO THE PROXIMITY OF THESE MISSILES IS SURROUNDING ANY THREAT OF AFRICA FREE AND WIZE""!!!!.' A PAN AFRICA MEANS SELF DETERMINATION NOT BEING SUBSERVIENT TO THE WEST AND THIER PLANTATION VIEWS OF AFRICAN". THE WEST WANTS TO HAVE AFRICA AS BACKWARDS TOURIST RESORT WHERE THEY CAN GO SHOOT ELEPHANTS GET RAW RESOURCES AND THOUSANDS OF MEN CARRYING THIER BACK PACKS THEIR MAN MADE WALKING VEHICLES THRU THE DENSITY OF WILDEST AFRICA. THIS IS PART OF THIER PROPOGANDA NARRATIVES THAT HOLLYWODD PRODUCES. THE REALITY IS THAT THERE PEOPLE IN AFRICA WHOM ARE ENVIRONMENATLIST BORN BLACK AFRICANS WHO STILL LIVES WITH THE ECOLOGY THE WAY ITV WAS AND NOW WE HAVE WHITE SOLDIERS IN EVERY PIECE OF AFRICA DISTURBING THE VIRGIN TERRITORIES AND PEOPLE OF THESE PLACES. LET US NOT BE CONCILLIATORY, AFRICA IS A GIANT CONTINENT AND WE ARE ITS MASTERS!!."WE HAVE NO BUSINESS RENTING LEASING SELLING ANY PARTS OF THIS EARTH THAT WAS GIVEN TO US THE BLACK MAN TO SAFE GUARD TREAUSRE AND BE ITS CARTETAKER BY THE "ALLMIGHTY GOD" . WE BY NO MEANS ARE THE WONERS BUT WE HAVE DIVINE RIGHTS THAT GIVES TO US THE CAPAVITY TO MAKE ALL THE DECISIONS CONCERNING THIS PART OF THE EARTH. WE LIVE IN ALL AFRICA WHICH IS TO THE EARTH THE HOLY LANDS" ; WE MUST LOOK AT THE TRUTH OF THESE STATEMENTS . "HERE IN THE RIFT VALLEY THAT CONSUMES MOST OF EAST AFRICA AND RUNS AS FAR AS SYRIA WAS HERETHE FIRTTS SETS FO BLACK PEOPLE EMERGED AS A CREATION OF THE "ALLMIGHTY GOD". WE AS AFRICANS KNOW NO DIFFERNT OTHER THAN WE WERE CREATED BY A MORE INTELLIGENT SUPERIOR ENTITY THAT WE HAVE ALWAYS PRAISED AS MOST WORTHY. UNTILL RECENTLY WE WOULD NEVER EVEN TO IMAGINE THAT WE WERE BORN OF MONKEY AHND THEY WERE OUR FORE PARENTS??? THESE THOUGHST ARE BLASPHEMOUS CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD MONKEYS APES CHIMPANZESS GORRIALLAS AS PETS . ANIMALS SUCH AS THEY WE DOMESTICATED!!!, SO EVEN THE THOUGHT THAT THEY PROCEEDED US IS NEGLIGIBLE!!!!!!LAUGHABLEEVEN!!!!!. WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY IS THE USE OF TRICKERY THE IDEA THAT THEY THE EUROEPANS ARE SO BRIGHT THEY KNOW MORE THAN WE DO IS AGAIN NEGLIGIBLE LAUGHABLE. THIER EXPERTS . WE LOOK BACK IN TIME JUST AS AFRICA WAS SETLLING DONW TO TRY TO INCORPPORTATE ALL THE YEARS OF FRUSYTRATIONS THE WIZE WEST DECIDED THAT AFRICA NEEDED CONFLICT OS THEY DISPLACED OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE IN IVORY COAST AND REACHED THIER OBJECTIVES OF RESTRUCTURING AND OVERTHROWING A GROWING DEMOCRACY THAT WAS FREE OF EUROEPAN INTERFERNCE AFREE NATION!!!!! WHEN EGYPT TUNISIA TOOK THIER FREEDOM ALSO THEY WERE LIVD THEY DCIDED TO RESHPE WHAT DEMOCRACY MEANT!!! DEMOCRACY SHOULD NOT BE ATTAINED BY PEACE IT MUST BE ACHIEVED BY MILITARY OVER THROW SO THEY INVENTED THE COUNTER REVOLUTION IN AFRICA LIBYA BECAME THE TEMPLATE; EVERY OTHER STATE THAT DEMANDED CHANGE WERE OVER LOOKED PACIFIED AND RETURNED TO COLONIAL BARBARITY. WE SAA BAHRAIN STILL IN REPRESSION BY THE WEST THROUGH THIER SAUDI ALLIES YEMEN WITH ONE PERSON FOR PRESIDENT NO OPPOSSITION THIS WAS THE NEW ORDER OF DEMOCRACY BY THE WEST. LIBYA TODAY ONCE THE MOST PROMISING OF ALL AFRICAN STATES THE BEACON OF FREE WIZE INTELLECT HAS BEENN DEMOLISHED AND IS NO MORE SYRIA THOGUH NTO PERFECT ALSO A FREE ENTERPRISE NO LONGER SO DEMONISED BY WESTERN PROPOGANDA FUELLING MOMNTHS OF DERATH DESTRUCTION NJO END IN SIGHT .... NOW THE BRAZEN TAKING OF MALI BY A PUPPET REGIME THAT WAS NOT ELECTED WITHY THIS FALSE AGENDA THAT THEY ARE THERE TO PROTECT THE SOUTH FROM THE NORTH ALL THESE SAME OLD NARRATIVES THAT ARE NON EXISTENT ONLY' TO INSURE ONE THING THE RULE OF POWER OVER THE COLONISED!!!!! "AFRICA MUST REMEMBER THAT FREE AND WIZE' IS REQUIRED OF EVERY TRUE HUMAN BEING; "BORN OF THE CREATION"""" WE ARE CHILDREN OF" THE MOST HIGH GOD" AND WE ARE NOT MEANT TO BE SERVANTS OF ANY OTHER THAN HE" " OUR SERVICE IS PREORDAINED FOR MANY MILLIONS OF YEARS THERE IS NO ONE THAT CAN REDIRECT OR REDICATE WHAT IS THE OBVIOUS WE ARE TO LLOK AFTER THE LANDS WE HAVE', WE MUST DIE TO PROTECT IT AND THE LANDS WILL BE GENEROUS TO AFRICANS RETRUNING ITS APPRECIATION WITH THE ENDOWMENT OF OUR FLOURISHING RESPOURCES!!!!! MANUFACTURING WILL INEVITABLY BRING GROWTH JOB SECURITY AND AMIDDLE CLASS WITHOUT DOUBT. THE THING IS THAT WITH A MANUFATURING AND MID INCOME CONTINENT THERE WOULD BE NO NEED FOR WARS IF WE ARE UNITED AND THERE WOULD BE WEALTH SECURITY!!!. AFRICA IS THE IDEAL OCNTINENT THE WEST IS JEALOUS COVETOUS ADN WANTS US TO SUBMIT TO THIER MILITARISM ::: "AFRICA MUST RESPOND WITH DEATH BEFORE DISHONOUR" AFRICANS WOULD RATHER BURN AND DESTROY ALL REA SOURCES IF IT SHOULD BE A RULER SERVANT REPLAY OF CENTURIES PAST'. WE CAN SEE THE SAME ALLAINCES WE THE SEE THE SAME WORD PLAYS WE SEE SIMILAR ACTIONS WITH DIFFERNT PLAYERS"""" THERE WONT BE A SECOND COLONISATION UNDER NO AND ANY CIRCUMSATNCES" "AFRICA FOR THE AFRICANS"