As expected, the summit between presidents Salva Kiir and Omar el-Bashir on January 25 did not produce any results. The term summit, which usually refers to a high-level meeting, is losing its meaning in the context of South Sudan and Sudan.
Since the independence of South Sudan on July 9, 2011, the two presidents held a series of summits. All of them failed to yield any positive outcome towards the normalisation of relations between their countries.
The last meeting did not only fail but gave Bashir a chance to show his utter arrogance, egotism, insensitivity, inflexibility and even disrespect for the mediators and the members of our delegation.
Some international observers who attended the summit were shocked by the negative attitude shown by Bashir during the summit. This is not surprising. Bashir has been consistent in revealing either consciously or sub-consciously his racist attitude towards Africans.
One would sympathise with President Salva Kiir and appreciate his patience and stamina to continue engaging Bashir who has proven beyond doubt to be cynical, sarcastic and unwilling to improve relations with South Sudan. Some international observers saw a big contrast between the two presidents. President Salva Kiir showed statesmanship, cool-minded and respect.
The real question is: How long will the South continue attending these summits and how much hope can we attach to Bashir's Sudan? It is clear that such summits are being used by Sudan to boost its public relations and buy time.
The current status of the disputed and claimed border areas and Abyei is in favour of Sudan. In Abyei, Sudan is scooping all the oil revenues from Abyei while South Sudan, Warrap state and the Ngok Dinka are getting nothing from their respective shares of 42 percent, 2 percent and 2 percent they are supposed to get under the Abyei Protocol.
The presence of UN forces in Abyei is providing security for oilfields and the Arab nomads and possibly may be used by Sudan to implement its settlement plan of Arab nomads in the area. Also Sudan is in control of all five disputed border areas, except for the 14 miles area, and all the claimed border areas, including Panthou (Heglig).
The leadership of the National Congress Party has taken a clear decision not to implement the nine agreements as they came to see them as detrimental for their survival.
Because South Sudan will receive about 75 percent of the oil proceeds and Sudan will only get 25 percent, the extremists in the NCP want to deny the South these much-needed resources and strangle it economically.
Some NCP leaders even anticipate that the Juba Government will fall within six months because of their actions of stopping the export of Southern oil and destabilising the South, as manifested in the recent incidents in Wau, Yei and Jonglei. Sudan has declared by law its southern neighbour an enemy of the people of Sudan, like Israel.
There are, however, other voices in the NCP which call for reasoning. They want the nine agreements to be implemented, not only to share the oil proceeds but also to establish good relations and soft borders which may benefit Sudan more in the long term.
The international community and the African Union are reluctant to confront Bashir and force him to implement the agreements. They are instead pushing South Sudan to continue conceding to Khartoum on the pending issues to the level that the SPLM may run the risk of depleting its political support.
In such an impasse, South Sudan should go back to the drawing board and plan as if it has no border with Sudan. While President Salva may continue to try and engage Bashir in the forthcoming summits, the Government may need to embark on strategies to survive without Sudan.
The reliance on Sudan as the only outlet for its oil exports to be challenged, not by rhetoric but by practical actions that will send a clear and strong message to Khartoum.
In particular, the Ministry of Petroleum needs to prepare clear and coherent policies and strategies for the oil sector in terms of alternative pipelines, exporting oil out by trucks, and building refineries. The National Petroleum and Gas Commission has been formed but it has not been meeting regularly.
It is critical that the policies and strategies prepared by the ministry be adopted so as to provide a sense of direction. The current composition of the commission is rather weak as it does not include some relevant policy makers.
Also, there seems to be no proper coordination between the Ministry of Petroleum and other relevant ministries, particularly the ministries of justice and electricity.
Therefore, oil policies need to be discussed by the Council of Ministers to ensure effective coordination in the implementation. One would expect that these policies would ensure by the end of this year functioning oil refineries, effective mining and export of other minerals, transport of oil by trucks if feasible and commencing of construction of alternative pipeline.
The current leadership of the Ministry of Finance needs to be supported in pursuing the current austerity measures, which may continue even if South Sudan manages to resume oil production.
There are constant rumours of a reshuffle in the national Government after the recent sweeping changes in the army and the police. The expected new Government should be up to the challenge of proving that we can survive without Sudan.
This new Cabinet should not only be lean but also bring competent and new blood, people who will be able to deliver. Any delay in the much-awaited reshuffle will paralyse the Government. We need to avoid such uncertainty during this critical period. Also the new Government should prepare our new nation for a real democratic transformation in the run-up to the general elections in 2015.
Diplomatically, President Salva should continue engaging the African leaders over the pending issues of Abyei, the border and the nine agreements. Africa must be mobilised to confront or even isolate Bashir.
Given the deteriorating relations between both countries, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may need to consider recalling its ambassador to Khartoum until relations improve. We also need to mobilise the international community to avail soft loans for infrastructure development, alternative pipelines and livelihoods recovery.
If we take such actions, I am confident we will be able to prove that we are able to survive without Bashir's Sudan. I am confident that we can make it because we have the will and the resources.
The author is a Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. The views expressed in the 'Comment and Analysis' section are solely the opinions of the writers. The veracity of any claims made are the responsibility of the author not Sudan Tribune.
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John Karanga Feb 27 2012, 22:06 Report Abuse Nairobi, Kenya – Police in Nairobi have arrested and placed in custody a manwho allegedly had sex with a pregnant sheep. The high-pitched bleat of the sheep in the night attracted the attention of a resident farmer who caught the Noel Sanyanafwa, having sexual intercourse with the sheep tied to a tree. The Police sent the animal to the Veterinary Services Department to ascertain the truth of the matter. The farmer was returning from his farm when he caught the man half naked and in the act with the sheep.
John Karanga Feb 27 2012, 22:06 Report Abuse Nairobi, Kenya – Police in Nairobi have arrested and placed in custody a manwho allegedly had sex with a pregnant sheep. The high-pitched bleat of the sheep in the night attracted the attention of a resident farmer who caught the Noel Sanyanafwa, having sexual intercourse with the sheep tied to a tree. The Police sent the animal to the Veterinary Services Department to ascertain the truth of the matter. The farmer was returning from his farm when he caught the man half naked and in the act with the sheep.
Still Luka Biong is proving himself as a minor politician , a man who looks only to the level of his own feet. your article mr. Luka is full of contradictions. if people of you like are to sit in the ruling cabinet of south sudan , no problem will be settled between the two countries. another more advice , do not relay much on the westerners , real africans know this fact very well.
LET US START FROM THE TOP ARBS ARE JUST AS AFRICAN AS THE DINKAS AND WHOM SO EVER ELSE. WHEN WE LISTNE TO THE NARRATIVE OF BASHIR HE IS STRICTLY AFRICAN. THE DIEA THAT EH SOME HOW SEES HIMSLEF OTHER THAN AFRICAN IS NOTWASHING. FIRST OF ALL HE DOES NTO SUPPORT THIS DIEA THAT THE WEST IS THE BEST SPEAKER FOR AFRICAN PROBLEMS??THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS SHARED BY THE SAME NOMADS WHO ALSO SEE THEMSLVES AS BLACK AFRICANS!!! THE ONLY PEOPLE THAT SEEM TO THINK THEY ARE NOT AFRICANS AND ARE DRAWING THIS DIVIDING LINE IS YOU??? THIS TYPE OF NARRATIVE IS WRITTEN AND ENDORSED BY WHITES WHO UNDERMINED THE UNITY OF BLACK AFRICA TO CONQUOR AND RULE. YES THE LIGHTER SKINNED AFRICANS WERE GIVEN TOKEN POSITIONS OF STERNGTH WHICH HAS STOOD IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IN ORHT AFRICA FOR THE PAST COUPLE HUNDRED YEARS".. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THESE THINGS TRANSPIRED, WHAT IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT WHO THEY ARE AS PEOPLE HAS CHANGED??? THEY ARE STILL AFRICANS AND STILL BLACK; ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THEM??. YES MY BROTHER I KNOW THAT THE PEOPLE OF THE SOUTH HAS SUFFRED FROM SEGREGATION BIAS PREJUDICE ETCETRA!!!. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THOSE WHO ABUSED YOU WERE LESS THAN AFRICANS???? DO NOT BE TAKEN IN BY THE WESTERN NARRATIVES THEY USED THIS TO DIVIDE AND CONQUOR... IN ORDER TO KEEP THE P[EOPLE IN CHECK THEY USED THE LIGHTER SKINNED PEOPLE GIVING THEM POSITIONS OF POWER TO RULE OVER THE MAJOURITY OF DARKER SKINNED PEOPLE. WHAT WE HAD ALSO WAS THE COLLUSION OF ARABIC SPEAKING WHITES WHO CONVERTED TO ISLAM WITH ENSLAVERS FORM EUROPE TWISTING THE NARRATIVE AND DOMINATING BLACK AFRICA!!!.. ONE HUDRED MILLION BLACKS DIED DURING THE MIDDLE PASSAGE CROSSING DURING THE TRANSATLANTIC SLAVE TRADFE!!!!!!. AFRICA WAS DECIMATED GENOCIDE WAR CRIMES MURDER KEDNAP TORTURE CHILD MOLESTATIONS RAPE BUGGERY AND THE LIST GOES ON!!!! THIS WAS THE PLIGHT OF THE BLACK MAN PUT UPON HIM BY THE WHITE MEN!!!!!... THESE THINGS WE MUST NEVER EVER FORGET. WHEN WE SEE BROTHERS WHO REMIND YOU OF THESE INHUMANE TREATMENTS OF ONE MAN AGAINST ANOTHER IT IS IMPERASTIVE THAT WE REMIND THEM OF THIS TRAVESTY!.. BLACK HATE IS UNACCEPTABLE UNDER ANY GUISE; THOSE WHO WE SEE BEHAVING IN USCH A WAY IS DEFINITELY BRAINWAHSED BY WHITES!!!!!. EUROEPANS ESPECIALLY THE USA HAS IN THIER HSITORY BOOKS THAT THE BLACK IS NOT EVEN HUMAN????? THIS IS WHO THEY TRETA BLACK PEOPLE TODAY . WHEN WE LOOK AT HISTORY WE SEE THAT IN THE USA WHERE THERE IS A MAY BE 20% BLACK POLULATION,' WE SEE THAT 1 OUT OF 8 HUMANS ON THE PLANET IS BLACK AND IMPRISONED IN THE USA!!!!.. THOSE ARE SOME VERY TELLING STATISTICS; NOT JUST TELLING BUT VERY RACIST!!!!!!. SO WE SEE THAT THE WEST IS VERY DISINGENUOUS WHEN THEY SPEAK OF EQUAL RIGHST WHEN THEY THEMSELVES DO NOT PARCTICE IT!!! WHAT IS INSULTING TO YOUR BROTHERS IN IN THE SOUTH IS THE WAY MAY EB I AM WRONG IS YOUR GIVING SO MANY CONCESSIONS TO ISRAEL AND THE USA??? I COULD BE WRONG BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT FACTS WE KNWOW THAT ISRAEL IS NTO QUITE THE FREIND IT SAYS IT IS??? THEY PRACTICE RACE HATE THEY ARE VERY SGREGATIONISTTHEY ARE COLOINIAL IMPERIALIST A PART OF THE AMERICAN HEGEMONY>>> THE WEST WANTS TO RECOLONISE AFRICA USING VERY SUBTLE MEANS THEY SPARK CONFLICTS SO THEY CAN ENTER OUR SPACES WITH SPEAKING OF COMBATTING ISLAMIST JIHADIST TERRORISM. AFRICA IS INA BUILDING MODE BUT THE WEST WANTS TO COME IN BOMB DESTROY AND TAKE US BACK DECADES IN TIME THIS A VERY CYNICAL PLOT TO RECOLONISE AFRICANS BY STEALTH. WITH SOUTH SUDAN THEY ARE NOT DOING MUCH IN TERMS OF REBUILDING AND TEACHING HOW MANY SCHOLARSHIPS, HOW MANY PEOPLE DO YOU HAVE IN TRAINING IN THE WEST??????? SO IF THIS IS NEGATIVE THEN IITS TIME THAT YOU MNED THE FENCES WITH THE NORTH MAKE EVERYONE EQUAL ALL ARE CITRIZENS OF BOTHE NATIONS AND GET ON WITH NATION BUILDING!!. LET GO OF THIS ARAB AND AFRICAN TALK THEY ARE INDIVISBLE UNDIVISBLE SO IN REALITY IT IS YOU WHOM YOU ARE CRITCISING"...THE PEOPLE FO SUDAN ARE WITH YOU THEY WANT TO SEE THE INEQUALITIES STOP THEY WANT TO SEE YOU PROGRESS THESE ARE YOUR AFRICAN BROTHERS AND SISTERS>> TAKE HEED MY BROTHER , 'I BELIEVE THAT ABEYEI HAS THE RIGHT TO EQUALITY SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY". I SAY MAKE EVERYONE EQUAL NO DISCREPANCIES OF BORFERS JUST EQUALITY AND THE REGION WILL IMPROVE DRASTICALY. STICK WITH UNITY AS THE CAUSE' STAY TUNED WITH BLACK LOVE BLACK EMPOWERMENT BLACK OWNERSHIP!!!!!!!!
Yes south Sudan will survive with out Sudan, the only problem is that we build the state depending on oil while south is reach of others, so if we turn to food security which is most for security and sustainability of any nation we will through even Sudan will not survive without south in the coming future.