Nigeria: As 2015 Beckons - Lessons From the Blunders of 1959, 1979 and 1999

24 February 2013
opinion

ALL things being equal, it is safe to predict that 2015 is the terminal date for the set of rulers that took over the reign of governance in Nigeria since 1999. In my self-serving 'gra gra', one of those things I pride myself as capable of doing effectively is to predict outcomes of Nigerian general elections. While this may amuse readers, it is not likely to amuse my close friends with whom I have had opportunities to tango over past predictions. I once informed Dr. Adesoji Adeniyi, one of the sharpest minds the nation has produced, that I would start charging fees for my predictions. In 2011, I predicted an overwhelming victory for the incumbent. As 2015 beckons, if Dr. Goodluck Jonathan continues with his 'transformation agenda', evident by oddities and reprobate leadership being celebrated as accomplishments in Abuja today, accounts of which daily saturate the pages of Nigerian newspapers and cyberia, he will not only be roundly defeated at the polls, but disgracefully so. Even the 'bolekaja' indices (undemocratic underhand tactics) that often determine who wins and who loses in Nigeria's brand of democracy are odds that are currently stacked heavily against him.

The good news for the opposition is that leaders, especially those who allow themselves to be shielded from the masses like Jonathan, never see this reality until they are back in their ancestral homes or on exile in Europe as ex-leaders. Then they can write memoirs with fancy titles and grandstand on national issues.

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