Mutahi Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers can only be understood and perhaps accepted if we were to expose Ngunyi for what he is - a die-hard 'nyumbaist' who from the comfort of his office is intent on lending a hand to the Jubilee alliance by pushing psychological numbers down our throats.

This idea of his support for his kinsmen is not farfetched, despite his off-stated anti-Uhuruism, Ngunyi's support for Uhuru is obvious. This support is evident when he lets it slip through that Mudavadi could ever overtake Raila and become number two.

This is absurd given that Ngunyi bases his argument on absolute numbers. This figures, based unfortunately on tribe, do not put Mudavadi ahead of Raila and Mudavadi could only beat Raila if we were to assume that his running mate would bring Kikuyu numbers.

This would in turn of course eat into Uhuru's maths and thus demolish Ngunyi's argument. Let us now examine Ngunyi's numbers and see if at all they add up or are indeed tyrannical.

To begin with, the numbers seem to suggest that it is Jubilee who are to be worried - they have six million votes against eight million to which Raila may have a claim to seven million.

Mutahi Ngunyi knows all too well that Cord commands support in six provinces against the two that give Jubilee their six million. A humble assessment would give Cord seven million out of the eight million, leaving one million up for grabs. So, who between Uhuru and Raila ought to be worried about the numbers?

But are the numbers as absolute as Ngunyi puts it? Are the Kalenjin-gema votes safely under Jubilee? Is it not possible, for instance, that Raila will get a few votes from Meru and even Central where disillusioned youth would see hope in Raila's promise for change?

Others will undoubtedly be swayed by the threats issued by the western nations in regard to the ICC issue. Is Ngunyi so sure of the Kalenjin who are (especially the old folk) said to be hesitant about facing the mountain?

Something else. Jubilee does not, at least not in Ngunyi's absolute terms, command support in the Maasai, Turkana, Samburu, Pokot and the Sabaot who he includes in his Rift Valley figures.

Does Mutahi know of the long-standing delicate, sensitive and historical issues in Rift Valley and for which you cannot give a simple prescription and about which most people choose to keep quiet but which could play out on March 4 along the line of the Bradley effect?

At this juncture, one would remind Mutahi Ngunyi that to the Rift Valley people, politics is not just about numbers. It is about their life.

Moi's hand may this time round not come out empty. It may not be expecting too much to suggest that Mudavadi may with the help of Kanu, get some votes from Rift Valley, especially from Nandi and Baringo counties.

The foregoing analysis suggests that while Jubilee may have a majority of Rift Valley votes, it would be self-delusion on the part of Ngunyi and Jubilee to imagine that Cord would in this case, get nothing. This should be obvious to a genius analyst.

Away from Rift Valley, Mutahi Ngunyi should be enlightened on the politics of other areas. One such area is the Luhya nation which is not as homogenous as Ngunyi might have imagined, for there are even some Luhyas who are, by blood and culture, more Luo than Luhya, more Kalenjin than Luhya and it would be simplistic to classify their vote as Amani votes. Furthermore, as it stands today, the Luhya, aware that their son stands no chance, are shifting towards Cord, a move they had initially reserved for the run-off.

He should also know that unlike 2007 when the Abagusii voted for Kibaki, Uhuru may get little support from Kisii. In conclusion, I wish to present to Mutahi Ngunyi a simple, reliable and convincing view into the voting patterns of Kenya.

This will be enough to demolish his 'Ngunyimatics'. This country is divided, Cord and Jubilee share 90 per cent of the votes equally. But as the election draws closer, and Mudavadi's five per cent slowly turns to Raila's, then Cord will sail through in the first round.

To see what I mean, one needs to look at the 2007 voting where President Kibaki and Right Hon Raila Odinga shared the votes in more or less the same way. Now, what has changed?

The Kalenjins have left Cord, but so have the Kambas joined Cord. What is more is Kibaki's share of Luhya votes is not there for Jubilee.

Another interesting scenario is that Uhuru is unlikely to get the pockets of votes that Kibaki picked from the non-PNU areas. This was courtesy of incumbency and the credit given to him for CDF and free primary education.

It is therefore evident that the Ngunyimatics that Jubilee is celebrating does not add up and they will need to move away from tribe-based arithmetics and embrace the Kenyan nation to stand a chance of winning this historic election.

H. B. Manyora is a lecturer at the University of Nairobi