Leadership (Abuja)

24 February 2013

Nigeria: The Nation's Trade to Grow to N35.05 Trillion by End of 2013

With the on-going reforms in the power sector and a growing development of the non-oil potentials of the country, Nigeria's trade volume are expected to jump to N35.05 trillion by the end of the year.

FSDH Research in its economic forecast for the country noted that imports to the country is expected to rise within the next three years but drop afterwards as the reforms take full effect.

According to the report, amount spent on imports is projected to fall to N5.377 trillion in 2013 from the expected 2012 figure of N5.661 trillion. Export will however, increase to a forecast figure of N28.675 trillion from N24.300 trillion.

Balance of trade for 2013 was estimated at N23.297 trillion while trade is forecast to grow to N52.381 trillion by 2017.

"Within the next three years, imports may increase as a result of the importation of equipment that will be required in the power sector of the Nigerian economy. After this period, we expect imports to drop because of the following factors: local capacity in the cement sector and increase on import duties on some goods where Nigeria has comparative advantage", the report stated.

It, however, noted that the diversification strategy of the federal government from oil to non-oil, efforts to improve infrastructure in the country to make the country's goods competitive and the improvement in the global economic activities should boost Nigeria's exports during the forecast period."

The latest foreign trade statistics released by the NBS for the period ended September 2012 shows that the value of the country's merchandise trade has been on a progressive increase in the last few years with exports dominating the total trade at an average of 70.60 per cent of the total trade.

"This means that Nigeria has a trade surplus. In a similar pattern, oil dominates the exports at an average of 70.37 per cent. The total trade increased from N19.66trn in 2010 to N29.33 trillion in 2011. As at September 2012 the value of total trade stood at N20.89 trillion" FSDH Research explained.

"Looking at Nigeria's export partners, United States is on top of the list followed by Brazil and closely followed by China. On the other hand, China is Nigeria's number one import partner followed by the United States, while India occupies the third position.

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