Photo: http://africanarguments.org Addis Ababa — Ethiopia's long-term hydropower strategy is proving to be both a source of economic sustenance and contention. In becoming Africa's leading power exporter through the construction of a series of dams across the country, Ethiopia could threaten the lives of millions who depend on the Nile River's waters.
This Horn of Africa nation invests more of its resources in hydropower than any other country in Africa - one third of its total GNP of about 77 billion dollars.
But at the centre of Ethiopia's hydropower development is a tough ethical question: which has the greater negative impact?
Alessandro Palmieri, a lead dam specialist at the World Bank, told IPS: "Is it the impact on Ethiopia's population (who will not have electricity) ... or the negative impact on half a million people (who will be displaced by the construction of the dams)? One tree falling always makes more sound than 10,000 trees growing."
Ethiopia has ambitious targets. It currently generates 2,000 MW from six hydroelectric dams and will increase its power generation to 15,000 GWh, according to state power provider Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO).
According to a World Bank report published in 2010, only 17 percent of the country's 84.7 million people had access to electricity. EEPCO states that by 2018, 100 percent of the population will have access to power.
Despite the ethical issues, Ethiopia's hydropower focus is fuelling growth and development and is offering an example for other African countries to follow. "Africa is currently only using seven percent of its hydropower potential. Per capita consumption of water in Africa is shameful," Palmieri said.
Ethiopia's plan to become the powerhouse of Africa gained momentum when it began to divert the Nile River's waters to start filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on May 28. On completion in 2017 it will be Africa's largest power project, generating 6,000 GW.
The dam is situated in Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz Region on the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile River and the supplier of most of the Nile River's waters. The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia's Lake Tana.
However, the project has been beset by controversy regarding its potential environmental impact since it was announced in 2011.
The first provisional impact study by a technical committee
has only just been released this year, on Jun. 1, two years into construction, and states that the dam will have no significant effects on downstream countries. Egypt called the report "inadequate".
The Gibe III Dam, which will generate 1,800 MW, is being built in southeast Ethiopia on the Omo River at a cost of 1.7 billion dollars and is expected to earn the government over 400 million dollars annually from power exports.
But it will not bring development to Ethiopian communities along the Omo River.
"The Gibe III dam will wreak havoc and destruction on the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of tribal people in Ethiopia's Lower Omo Valley and the peoples living around Kenya's Lake Turkana who depend on the Omo River for survival," Elizabeth Hunter, from Survival International, an organisation working for the rights of local ethnic groups across the globe, told IPS.
According to the World Water Council (WWC), an international think tank for world water management, strides in Ethiopia's hydropower development over the last decade have increased the annual average water storage per person from 40 cubic metres to 240.
Water storage in large dams makes ecological sense, provides a key adaptation measure to mitigate the effects of climate change and is a boost to growth and development, according to Ben Braga, president of WWC.
"Water storage is a good solution to the problems of climate variability and uncertainty. In terms of energy generation and the water needs of industry and agriculture, hydropower is a good solution. Our policy is: more storage equals more resilience," he told IPS.
However, there is still a long way to go to catch up with the United States, which stores 5,000 cubic metres per citizen per year.
Diverting the flow of the Nile to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will provide hydroelectricity not only for Ethiopia but also for neighbouring countries. Ethiopia plans to sell 2,000 MW to northern Kenya while Djibouti currently receives 80 percent of its electricity (50 to 70 MW) from Ethiopia.
"After meeting national demand, surplus electricity will be supplied to neighbouring countries. Our hydropower will benefit economic development in the Horn of Africa region," Miheret Debebe, chief executive officer of EEPCO, told IPS.
Upstream countries like Egypt have had to enter into a new era of dialogue and cooperation with Nile basin countries to safeguard future access to the Nile waters. It was a critical move for 160 million people who are said to live downstream along the Nile and depend on its waters.
"When Ethiopia announced its plan to build the largest dam in Africa on the Blue Nile in 2011 we entered a new era of riparian politics. Since then the Nile Basin Initiative has been crucial to ensuring cooperation and long-term water access between the Nile states," Braga said.
However, human rights violations damage the country's hydropower policies, according to international rights groups such as Human Rights Watch and Survival International. These organisations have reported cases of violence and intimidation, which have been carried out to forcefully move indigenous tribes from their land in the Lower Omo valley for the hydropower project and large-scale commercial plantations.
Media access to the Omo Valley has become very difficult and much of the area has been ring-fenced by government security forces. However, a researcher for Survival International managed to speak to members of indigenous groups affected by the dam's construction.
One member of the local Mursi ethnic group, a pastoralist community, told Survival International: "The government says cattle and people have to move from the Omo Valley to where there is no grass and no crops. So that means we and the cattle will die together."
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We at Global Connect promote GPS via GRS that is Good Governance, Progressive Prosperity and Sustainable Security for All, via Green Renaissance Strategies.
Ethiopia is known to be the only independent country in the world with over 7,500 years of recorded governance based on consensus leadership.
The current Egyptian threat to Ethiopians and Sudanese need to be addressed in a very serious and critical manner by reviewing the past and understanding the present towards chartering a better future.
As such, traditionally competing ideas and perspectives are considered in our Baitoes in the North, Shengoes in the Middle and Chefes in the South.
In short, we have a much complex democratic system in our social and cultural as well as national life. The social networks such as mahiber, kubs and tebel and coffee clubs are key to public and social communication.
The Egyptians have funded and organized a series of revolutionary fronts under the guise of Marxism, Lenninsm, Stalinism, and Maoism but internally managed by the muhabarats of Egypt!
More recently over the past 40 years, a new generation of youths with limited local and international education, tried to copy the Russian and Chinese Revolution without a rational scientific study of the nation's challenges and opportunities.
Thi generation, created a series of fronts, and their respective Anja-Beganjas (Splinter groups) with access to unlimited guns and bullets from the Cold War countries, USSR, USA and UK and China, etc. All organized by the Egyptian Muhabarats as we learned from the recent Presidential National Security Broadcast. It is so clear and telling for generations of Africans and international community.
Ethiopia went through one of the most heneious criminal civil war referred to as revolution by the instigators where lives and property was lost for potential challenge to the revolution or for voicing divergent opinion and mostly on minor technical problems. Who is behind it all- The Egyptian Presidential National Security Broadcast tells it all
Ethiopia literally descended to the primate lives of Lucy and Selam some 4 billion years back, due to the most criminal Marxist-Leninist and Stalinist policies imposed by uneducated youth and junior military officers. Who is behind all these crimes- The Egyptian Broadcast tells it all
As we say in Ethiopia, we moved away from our Divine existence back to the pre-human primate lives for over 40 years. The past forty years have left physical and emotional PTSDs that does not allow this generation to move towards democracy, rule of law and consensus leadership.
The current apparent political undemocratic culture is the legacy of this demonic misguided Marxist-Lenninist and Stalinist and Maoist, mostly half baked ideas where Millions lost their lives in Europe, Asia, and was repeated under the uneducated youths who organized themselves under the banner or fronts of Socialist MEOSON, EPRP, Derg and EPLF-TPLF,etc
Who is behind all these criminal activities? The Egyptian Presidential National Security Broadcast tells it all!
Literally millions lost their lives in vain. I say in vain now when we learn the level of corruption by these so called revolutionaries and their associates is just beyond pale.
It is reported by international financial institutions, some 30 Billion in capital flight. Locally, it is becoming a new phenomenon, where revolutionaries who merely entered on bear feet some 20 years ago into Addis, have become Billionaires over night by stealing resources from the public funds such as the banks, customs and treasury is just un heard of in Ethiopian history.
Who is behind it? The Egyptian Presidential National Security Broadcast tell us all! It is amazing indeed! Now the UN, AU and Arab League as well as EU and ASEAN will have to act to protect us all.
The Golds in our banks were replaced with metals, our coffees were exported via criminal outlets in the Red Sea and to date have not been accounted for.
The worst part is the fact that they think they can get away with it with mere investigation of some front operatives when the real criminals are sitting in our government offices with the loots recorded in local and international financial systems. The blunders of the past 20 years need to be accounted. Each person's income and expenses need to be reviewed for the past 20 years and see the integrity of their financial systems if they are free from blunders that seem to be mind boggling.
Who is behind all these criminal activities? The Egyptian Presidential National Security Broadcast tells it all
The concept of good governance, transparency, accountability and responsiveness to public and citizen demand is some thing that these revolutionaries do not believe in.
So, how can we expect Democracy among revolutionaries, who break the rule of law and constitution day and night. None of the contending parties understand or want to understand what democracy is.
Democracy is about representation, participation, debate and consensus! These are concepts the revolutionaries hate! They want Dictatorship of the Proletariat or the Peasant Vanguard Party. The so called revolutionaries and vanguard fronts and Dictatorship of the proletariats do hot trust the public to own any thing.
The Vanguard Revolutionaries want to steel the public resources under the guise of Revolution, Development and now State Capitalism.
Tell this to the Egyptian National Security Counsel Broadcast!
All the contending parties want to be their own Vangard Dictators! Unless we get rid of the roots of the corrupt and dictatorial principle of the Marxist-Lenninist-Stalinist and Maoist ideologies with traditional Ethiopian Governance and ideology, we will continue to be puppets of right, left and foreign interest groups.
Ethiopia has ruled itself for over 7500 years with Consensus Governance where ideas, and perceptions are entertained in egalitarians systems like the Gadda, Baitos, Shengoes and Chefes.
We need to re-examine our own sources of civilization, adopt the best practices from the left, right and middle, East and West but always make it an Ethiopian experience.
We need to work hard towards Green Renaissance Strategies of 3As+3Es and Foc. This is Accessibility, Affordability, Accountability towards an efficient, effective and equitable system for all within the environment of Freedom of Choice for each citizen.
Ethiopians have to own their own ideas, technologies, perspectives land, sea, water, and entrepreunirial resources first and then seek democratic principles to preserve them. We need a functional accountable system supported by modern digital technology to track our resources at home and abroad.
If all resources are in the hands of few criminal vangard party operatives and the constitution is consistently undermined by these criminals who have all power, how can we expect them to respond to public deand and concerns?
At this pace, unless we retire the revolutionaries and replace them with educated youth and women who follow the constitution, Ethiopia will not see democracy in a Millennium.
This generation has a duty to dismantle the demonic dictatorial system and return it to the egalitarian consensus governance principle that propelled our ancestors to give us the oldest independent country in the world.
This generation has to convert all our Threats into Risks, and then to challenges and opportunities (CORT Analysis) for Option Appraisals with What if scenario exercise of Best and Win-win Options.
This requires a substantial educated population and a system of governance based on a constitution and a leadership that is committed to promote GPS and GRS. We need a system that promotes safety, entrepreneurship and excellence to replace the current corrupt system.
The recent Egyptian Presidential National Security Broadcast shows us that all the past, present and future liberation fronts are instigated supported and promoted by Egypt. There was no single balanced, rational comment from those goons. They want to support the liberation fronts in Bahire Negash, Oromia and Ogaden not to forget the Benshangul liberation fronts. They wan to convert the Egyptian Embassy to a Counter Intelligence Operation! The response from Ethiopia was very telling!
Sustainable Security can only be developed if all 100 Million Ethiopians are organized one in five and five in one with the 5 Million Diaspora population to ensure the current Egyptian Goons do not succeed in their publicly broadcast threats by organizing AU, Arab League, UN, EU and ASEAN nations to sustain Africa's Growth and Transformation.
The time has come to allow the Youth and our Women to lead us and the old Marxist Men have to retire gracefully. Then and only then we can see a movement towards a true Democracy (Government By the People, For the People and By the People).
We have now Dictatorship by the Revolutionaries and Fronts for the Vanguard Party and even family! This is bonanza to the Egyptian Goons who want to undermine Ethiopia!
We are way behind the traditional Ethiopian consensus Governance and we need to work our way back towards Good Governance
Seeking your alternative perspective, I remain Yours sincerely
Belai Habte-Jesus,MD, MPH www.GlobalBelaiJesus.com GlobalBJesus@gmail.com
Watu wanasema John Wanjau Kirima ni Shoga.