Madagascar is priming itself for the island's most important elections in a decade.
Since the political crisis in 2009 when Andry Rajoelina and the army removed the elected president, Marc Ravalomanana, the country has floundered without a democratically-elected government or parliament.
In September 2012 Mr Rajoelina and the opposition parties signed an elections roadmap agreement after three years of protracted negotiations led by the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
After overcoming much mistrust and disbelief from observers and voters alike, the country is now gearing up for the presidential poll set for July 24th.
Justine Sija, a seafood vendor from the south-western fishing village of St Augustin, is one of millions looking forward to the event. She has voted in all eight of Madagascar's presidential elections held since 1965.
"In the beginning we voted for President Tsiranana because we had to, but he was the best president in any case. In his time, things were cheap. Since then, presidents have changed, but prices just keep going up. I would like a president who could solve this problem and who will give us aid. But I'm not sure how reliable the tally is, as I know that even here in the village officials used to steal votes."
Election troubles have plagued this Indian Ocean nation ever since its independence from France in 1960.
Philibert Tsiranana, who became Madagascar's first president in 1959, was the only candidate in the island nation's first two elections, in 1965 and 1972. Though he won 99.7% of the vote in 1972, a popular uprising forced him out of office later that year and he handed over power to an army chief.
Didier Ratsiraka took power in a 1975 military reshuffle and then won re-election in 1982, 1989 and 1996. More candidates ran in these elections. Like Ms Sija, few citizens trusted the results because the interior ministry ran the polls.
When Mr Ravalomanana first ran for the presidency in 2002, the yoghurt tycoon dispatched his own helicopters to the polling stations to conduct his own tally.
When his results differed from those of the ministry, a six-month-long political crisis broke out, ending only after Mr Ratsiraka, the incumbent president, sought exile in France. This ended his reign, which had lasted on and off for nearly 30 years.
The Independent National Electoral Commission of the Transition (CENIT), an independent election body helped by UN funds and advice, is in charge of the polls now.
Its president, Beatrice Atallah, has served on earlier electoral commissions and she is currently a judge at the Appellate Court in Antananarivo, Madagascar's capital. It is time citizens and not judges elect a president, which has been the practice after many previous disputed elections, she says.
Managing elections in Madagascar, the world's fourth-largest island with a coastline of 4,827km, is a staggering challenge. CENIT is equipping, manning and protecting 20,000 polling stations, up from 17,000 in past elections. The international community has donated $25m to the $60m electoral budget.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has stepped in to help manage the funds and to advise CENIT.
"Some places are so remote, you can only reach them by motorbike," says Fatma Samoura, the UNDP's resident representative in Madagascar.
"We've asked South Africa to give us some helicopters for this. We know how to do this according to international norms and standards, from printing the ballots to deciding whose name appears first on the ballot. If they want the seal of the international community, they need to get it right."
Voter registration is turning into the commission's largest organisational headache. CENIT estimates that there are 10.2m Malagasy over the age of 18 who are eligible to vote out of a population of 21m.
This is a rough estimate, however, as nearly 1m Malagasy, mostly women in remote areas, do not have birth certificates, another rough estimate.
Birth certificates are needed to obtain a national identity card, which is needed to register to vote. Polety, 20, from Namakia, a small village in southern Madagascar, recently received her national identity card.
Like many rural Malagasy, she does not have a family name. "The fokotany (neighbourhood council) chief comes once a year to register people in the village, but for some reason he never found me," she says.
Polety has now applied for a voter's ID. "I want to be in this group of people who can vote. I will look closely at the face of the candidates, see what they're like and listen on the radio to what they're planning to do for us."
Benjamin Ramaharosoa is president of the Soavimasoandro neighbourhood council in downtown Antananarivo.
He works in a tiny office, two dark rooms with a few bare desks. Boxes filled with CENIT voter registration materials are stacked near the walls.
"During the elections in 2002, things weren't done properly," he says.
"If you had a residency registration card from the fokotany they would let you vote." But if you did not have a card or did not live in the neighbourhood, you could still vote: "The chief just needed to know who you were," he adds. "Now we have proper preparations."
So far, he has registered 11,200 people, but knows there are 700 who have not signed up. "We sent agents through the neighbourhood to talk to everybody.
Some people still refuse to register. Sometimes they are convinced this election is organised by the HAT [the acronym for Mr Rajoelina's transitional government]. Others are illiterate and too scared to enter an office or even to hold a pen."
A major feature of this election is a paper ballot, the first in Madagascar's electoral history. Before, voters would enter a polling station, pick up a series of small photographs, place the picture of their preferred candidate in an envelope and drop it in the ballot box.
This system encouraged fraud because interior ministry election officials could hide the photographs of opposition candidates.
Sometimes, the smaller parties did not have the financial means to print photographs and place them in rural polling stations.
This year, all candidates will be on the same ballot, which features a picture of every candidate, with his or her name and political party written underneath next to a box to be marked by the voter. For the first time, CENIT will print and distribute the ballots.
Ms Samoura is encouraging political parties to monitor the election.
"The politicians can send their people to the polling stations. Instead of complaining afterwards, they have the chance to make sure elections are fair from the beginning.
A politician can deploy 40,000 supporters, put two in every station, and these people can complain as soon as the office closes," she says.
Party representatives can also fill out a written complaint during the voting process, which will be attached to the official voting operation log.
"We don't have enough international observers to go everywhere and often you find problems in the small villages, where nobody wants to go," Ms Samoura added. "Instead of handing out T-shirts, politicians better make sure their people are there."
These elections should be the cornerstone for establishing a stable democratic government, Ms Samoura adds.
"The real problem here is the mistrust between the civil society and its rulers," she says. "People need to know that if they commit crimes, they will go to jail. Once there are solid institutions - a democratically-elected parliament, an independent judiciary and journalists who write articles based on facts everybody involved in illegal trafficking, and they know who they are, will be judged. Their hour will come soon. But right now, the ball is in the court of the Malagasy. If they want democracy, they will have to go out and cast their votes. We can support them, but the rest is up to them."
While the electoral commission has concentrated on the technical and operational aspects of the process, SADC has slogged through a list of political hurdles.
First, the two rivals, Messrs Rajoelina and Ravalomanana, had to be persuaded not to run. Mr Rajoelina finally agreed in January 2013, a move that has divided his Young Determined Malagasy (TGV) party.
Four of his former allies are now running for president, opposing Antananarivo's mayor, Edgard Razafindravahy, the official TGV candidate.
In a surprise move, however, Mr Rajoelina changed his mind in early May and managed to get his candidacy approved.
But he must step down 60 days before the elections and he must run as an independent as the TGV already has a candidate.
Mr Rajoelina explained that he made his turnaround after Mr Ravalomanana managed to circumvent his promise not to run by naming his wife, Lalao, as the candidate for his I love Madagascar (TIM) party. The electoral commission approved her candidacy and polls show that she may win.
The electoral commission approved a record-breaking 41 candidates for a place on the ballot, including Mr Ratsiraka, the former president, now 76 and back from exile.
The elections roadmap also promises amnesty for all former political leaders. Many fell out of political favour and were later convicted for committing economic crimes.
"We have two more months for the courts to grant amnesties for all kinds of politicians, from presidential candidates to delegates," Ms Atallah says. "I understand how hard this is for the involved judges. These are people who were condemned. Now the judges have to undo those verdicts. It's very hard on them."
Ms Atallah has already displayed her independence and determination to make the elections fair. In January Mr Rajoelina tried to change the election schedule, asking for parliamentary elections to take place before the presidential elections, which he hoped would strengthen his political chances if his party won a majority in the legislature.
CENIT did not budge and the elections will go ahead as planned.
Parliamentary elections will be held on September 25th after the July presidential poll and will be followed by local elections on October 23rd.
Even if the elections are not perfect, they will be important for Madagascar, Ms Atallah says. "If we can limit the problems and have elections that are as democratic as possible, we will at least be able to come out of this crisis."
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FIASCO IN MADAGASCAR
After Andry Rajoelina ousted Madagascar’s democratically-elected president Marc Ravalomanana in a March 2009 coup d’état, SADC initially called for restoring constitutional order by reinstating the ousted president. But the international community acceded to Rajoelina’s demand that he be regarded as transitional president and to Rajoelina’s refusal to allow the ousted president to return to Madagascar.
“The aim is to keep peace and stability,” said SADC mediator Joaquim Chissano in August 2010. The sad irony is that the Rajoelina regime has achieved relative peace and stability only through repression of political opponents by arrest, politicized court proceedings, teargas, bullets, the denial of permits to demonstrate, and systematic violations of human rights. Rajoelina’s de facto rule has resulted in poverty so extensive that now about 90% of all Malagasy people live on less than $ 2 a day.
In July 2011, SADC mediator Chissano argued to the African Union that Rajoelina should be allowed to be a candidate for president in upcoming elections despite having come to power by coup d’état. A precedent was set in 2010 when the AU, under pressure from France, allowed a coup leader in Mauritania to run for president of that country. France was among the first to propose that Rajoelina run for President of Madagascar, telling him within a month after the coup “that he faced a choice: either to stand for election but then have no role in organizing the elections or else organize the elections but then not run”.
Thus perhaps not surprisingly, the SADC roadmap of September 2011 provided specifically for Rajoelina to be a candidate, despite the AU’s principle that coup leaders should not be allowed to run in elections to restore constitutional order. The roadmap also gave international approval to Rajoelina as being Transitional President, giving him broad powers. With that approval, Rajoelina was received at the Elysée palace in Paris and most recently at the Vatican by the Pope.
But Rajoelina refused to comply with the SADC roadmap’s requirement that political exiles be allowed to return to Madagascar unconditionally. He prevented Marc Ravalomanana and his wife Lalao from returning on several occasions, and had her kicked out manu-militari when she got to the Antananarivo airport via a commercial flight on 27 July 2012.
So the international community switched tactics and in December 2012 got Marc Ravalomanana to agree to not be a candidate for president. Rajoelina reluctantly followed suit in January 2013.
After Lalao Ravalomanana publicly filed papers on 25 April to be a candidate for president, the UN spokesperson said “It is up to the Special Electoral Court … to decide on the validity and qualifications of all prospective candidates”. Likewise, on 2 May, SADC mediator Chissano said Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy “is a matter to be seen by the Special Electoral Court”.
In all, 49 people filed papers to be candidates before the 28 April deadline. All of Madagascar was shocked when on 3 May the Special Electoral Court (CES) approved Rajoelina as a candidate even though he filed his papers on 2 May. Perhaps they should not have been surprised, though, because the president of the CES, Jean-Michel Rajaonarivony, as president of Madagascar’s High Constitutional Court, approved Rajoelina’s seizure of power by coup d’état in March 2009, and admitted that that decision was made on political rather than constitutional considerations. As a result, Jean-Michel Rajaonarivony is one of 109 people sanctioned by the AU for his support of the March 2009 coup d’état.
After being accepted by the CES on 3 May, Rajoelina flew the same day to Tanzania to solicit President Kikwete’s assistance to force Rajoelina’s major political rival, Lalao Ravalomanana, to withdraw her candidacy. After all, as stated in the article above, polls showed that she might win. Rajoelina made it clear to President Kikwete that he wanted Lalao Ravalomanana out of the race, saying that he would withdraw if she and Didier Ratsiraka would withdraw their candidacies. This would make victory easier for Edgard Razafindravahy, the candidate of Rajoelina’s TGV party.
Rajoelina’s visit with President Kikwete in Tanzania, which was accompanied by numerous smiling photo-op photos put on Tanzanian government websites, was very successful. France was the first to specifically question the legitimacy of Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy on 6 May. Then SADC called on Lalao Ravalomanana to consider withdrawing her candidacy. Then the EU’s Catherine Ashton supported the SADC statement. Then the UN supported SADC and its call for Lalao Ravalomanana to withdraw her candidacy. Then the UK supported the SADC and Ashton statements and on the same day (16 May) the AU Peace and Security Council called Mrs. Ravalomanana’s candidacy “illegitimate”.
The German Ambassador to Madagascar stated in an interview published on 1 June 2013 that the international community is “targeting a few people.” He repeated threats that the international community would not recognize the government if any of the three (Rajoelina, Lalao Ravalomanana, and Didier Ratsiraka) should win the election. He said, “it is not a secret for anybody that the international Community is currently discussing targeted sanctions against certain individuals” (http://www.lexpressmada.com/ulrich-hochschild-madagascar/43702--certains-a cteurs-ont-declenche-une-situation-incontrolable-.html).
The least one can say is that the international community has been very supportive of Rajoelina’s desire to have his main political rival knocked out of the presidential race.
But in all of this, not one of the countries and international organizations listed above, not SADC, the AU, UN, UK, France or EU, has provided any reasonable reason as to why Lalao Ravalomanana should not be a candidate (see http://allafrica.com/thread/comment/main/main/pkey/aans:post:201305210994.h tml#c|main|main|id|0GaqPSVImA0MBbdd). President Kikwete has ignored an open letter asking him to explain the basis for SADC’s call for Mrs. Ravalomanana to withdraw her candidacy (http://allafrica.com/thread/comment/main/main/pkey/aans:post:201305290322. html#c|main|main|id|0GdWMIk2zYwXUhcP).
To say, as some in the media have done, that Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy is illegitimate because she did not reside in Madagascar for the required 6 months before the election, is to endorse forced exile as a means of preventing a person from taking part in the political life of her nation (see http://www.innercitypress.com/ban4madaroad051613.html).
After Rajoelina’s security forces kicked her out of Madagascar in July 2012, SADC put out a communiqué criticizing Mrs. Ravalomanana for returning and the AU and UN kept silent. Then, in March 2013, when Lalao Ravalomanana sought to return to Madagascar to visit her hospitalized mother, President Kikwete collaborated with Rajoelina to place conditions on her return, including restrictions on her right to free speech. The resulting ‘agreement’ (http://www.madagate.com/politique-madagascar/dossier/3220-lalao-ravalomana na-tel-mari-telle-epouse-a-la-maniere-de-dakar-i-et-ii.html) violated the SADC Roadmap and Mrs. Ravalomanana’s rights under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. And the UN kept silent. It seems that the UN is not in the business of protecting human rights anymore, at least not the rights of Lalao Ravalomanana.
In late May, a senior diplomat in Antananarivo suggested that the CES put out a new decision ruling ineligible the candidacies of Lalao Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka, and Andry Rajoelina. Then, on 3 June, a meeting organized to a major degree by pro-Rajoelina military officers likewise ‘recommended’ to the CES that it rule the 3 ineligible, giving the CES a 48 hour ultimatum to come up with a new decision.
On 5 June 2013 the Special Electoral Court upheld its 3 May ruling that there are 41 accepted candidates for President of Madagascar, including Lalao Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka, and Andry Rajoelina. The CES thus held its ground against pressure from the international community and the pro-Rajoelina military to disqualify those three candidates.
But the new CES ruling does not guarantee free and fair elections. It leaves Rajoelina, a perpetrator of an unconstitutional change of government, as a candidate for president. As a candidate, in accordance with the SADC roadmap, he was supposed to have resigned as transitional president 60 days before the election scheduled for 24 July, but he refused. Rajoelina is still refusing to apply important articles of the SADC roadmap, including the freeing of political prisoners and freedom of the press. Many radio and television stations shut down by Rajoelina’s de facto regime are still shut down.
In May 2009, France’s top diplomat for Africa told French parliamentarians that France might support a candidate for President of Madagascar, saying “if we were to support a candidacy, it would be as discretely as possible” (http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/13/cr-cafe/08-09/c0809054.asp). Now almost the entire international community is trying to block a particular candidate. The German Ambassador tried to justify this stance by saying that the international community was practicing “fair play”. “It is not interference” he said. “Interference is when the international community interferes in the electoral campaign and calls for voting for so-and-so or so-and-so. And that is not at all the case. … The question in play is to know if the Malagasy people want a country that is isolated with respect to the world, a president who is not recognized outside the country and a country that will not have support of the international community.” Probably not many people in the world, certainly not in Madagascar, would agree with the ambassador's concept of fair play.
The question is, what will the international community do now? Will it continue to support Andry Rajoelina as Transitional President of Madagascar? Will it support democracy or continue to try to force Lalao Ravalomanana to withdraw her candidacy? Will it continue to support policies that lead the vast majority of Malagasy people deeper and deeper into poverty while a few continue to reap the rewards of a coup d'état?
A fiasco, for sure.