If the fragilities and dangers within Africa's growth are not recognised, 'Africa Rising' stereotypes may prove as hopeless as their predecessors.
Typically, narratives about Africa have been shaped by non-Africans and not been particularly complimentary. Whether through images of emaciated children fending off flies from their faces or stories of wild-eyed assault-rifle toting warlords, Africa for many has become synonymous with poverty, helplessness, and hopelessness.
But in recent years, these stereotypes have been increasingly challenged by proponents of new narratives, ones that seek to reclaim Africans' agency and emphasise the continent's positive trends. Evangelists of these new discourses are often Africans themselves and aim to articulate the visions, histories, philosophies and aspirations of Africans, that have for so long been suppressed and misrepresented on the global stage.
In this ambition of redefining Africa, many proponents of these discourses have been energised by the spread of the "Africa rising" narrative peddled by the global media and international institutions. According to this new story, Africa is no longer the "hopeless continent" but one of economic opportunity and rapidly-expanding middle classes. Facts and statistics used to back up this narrative typically include projections that sub-Saharan Africa will experience 6.1% economic growth in 2014 (well ahead of the global average of 4%) and that six of the ten fastest growing countries over the past decade are African.
Bad news has been replaced with good news, pessimism with optimism, despair with triumph. Yet in many ways one stereotype has simply been replaced with another. And, as unsophisticated stereotypes do, the Africa rising narrative implicitly conceals the fragility of Africa's economic situation and various impediments that continue, and will continue, to hold Africa back if they are not addressed, a few of which are examined below.
Ongoing aid dependence
One feature of many African economies which continues to define Africa's relationship with the global economy is its continuing dependence on foreign aid.
While Ethiopia is heralded as one the continent's rising stars, for example, some estimate that 90% of its annual budget is derived from donor funding. Meanwhile Malawi, another aid darling, gets 40% of its national budget from foreign benefactors.
According to Dambisa Moyo, Zambian economist and author of Dead Aid: Why aid is not working and how there is a better way for Africa, Africa has received at least $1 trillion of development-related aid from developed countries over the past 60 years, and this has not only flattered prognoses of African development, but fostered dependency and perpetuated poor governance.
Although aid may be beneficial in the short-term, so long as African nations are dependent on overseas aid for public services and development, buoyant Africa rising narratives seem premature. Economic growth so heavily bolstered by overseas aid cannot be organic, stable growth.
Furthermore, this ongoing dependency perpetuates a global power imbalance between North and South. Too often, African leaders attend international conferences not in the hope of contributing to discussions, but to ask for aid. And as long as external donors have such sway over national budgets, Africa will not be able to stand on an equal footing with the rich world.
Underhand dealings
But Africa's finances are not only undermined by where they come from, but where they go. With regards to both development aid and finances generated from Africa's vast minerals resources, money is often illicitly siphoned off to lubricate patronage networks rather than going to the most needy.
A study released this May by the African Development Bank and Global Financial Integrity revealed that from 1980-2009, Africa lost up to $1.4 trillion in illicit financial outflows - whether through corruption, tax evasion, bribes or other criminal activities. This figure, as Obadia Ndaba points out, is more than three times the total amount of foreign aid received over the same period. Nigeria is reported to have lost over $400 billion to oil corruption alone since independence in 1960.
These figures are particularly staggering when one considers the majority of sub-Saharan Africa's population live on around $2/day. And with many afraid to speak out against high-level corruption, prospects for positive change are not overly encouraging. From oil in Nigeria, to precious minerals in the Democratic Republic of Congo, to diamonds in Zimbabwe, Africa's development cannot but remain fragile and somewhat hollow so long as so much of the benefits of Africa's growth are either taken off the continent or remain confined to a narrow elite.
Extraction not manufacturing
The Africa rising narrative also rings a little hollow in another way. Statistics regarding economic growth conceal the fact that it is predominantly driven by the extractive industry.
In his Foreign Policy article The Myth of Africa's Rise, Rick Rowden highlights how the evangelists of Africa Rising "don't mention manufacturing, or its disturbing absence, in Africa". According to a UN report published recently, manufacturing has stagnated across most of Africa, and even regressed in 23 African countries.
Parselelo Kantai speaks more forcefully on this point, saying "what is happening on the continent is a new era of massive extraction, catalysed mostly by Chinese domestic demands. And because it is almost exclusively extraction without on-site value addition, it's a process where the continent's elites, the Chinese and westerners, are the only people who benefit."
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No country has advanced sustainably and in the long-term without developing a viable manufacturing sector. Manufacturing could provide the jobs Africa desperately needs, yet Africa is primarily selling raw commodities while many of its markets are dominated by cheap products from abroad, goods with which local producers cannot compete.
While a shift from Africa's image as hopeless continent may be welcome, if the new narratives of Africa rising are not sufficiently problematised, and if these triumphalist stories conceal the fragility of Africa's growth and the rocky patches on the road to genuine, inclusive development, today's trendy new stereotype may prove to be no less hopeless than the last.
For further reading around the subject see:
Africa's Rise a Myth? Bring on Authoritarian Capitalism Instead... Africa is Rising! At Least Its 1% IsPoverty Has a Creation Story: Let's Tell it
William Muchayi is a political activist who has written extensively on Zimbabwe.
