Photo: Fred Noy/UN An international team of researchers has developed a computer model to predict global crop failures several months before harvest.
Since 2008, widespread drought in crop-exporting regions has resulted in large increases in food prices on global commodity markets. With climatic extremes also expected to become more common, being able to predict global crop failures could help developing nations that are reliant on food imports - making them more resilient to spikes in food prices.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change this week (21 July), involved analysing 23 years of climate forecasts and satellite observations to develop a computer model for predicting crop yields.
The researchers then tested how well their model predicted the actual yields at the end of each season for four staple crops: wheat, rice, maize and soybean.
They found that climate-induced crop failures were reliably predicted in up to a third of the global crop area. The results suggest that computer models such as this could be used to produce crop estimates up to five months before harvest and help establish a system to predict global crop failure.
"This presents the first assessment of the reliability of cropping prediction on a global scale," study co-author Toshichika Iizumi, a researcher at Japan's National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, tells SciDev.Net. "It demonstrates that we can predict food production ahead of the harvest, which is a valuable food security tool for dealing with changing climates."
Yet the reliability of the model's predictions varied substantially by crop, with wheat and rice yields being the most predictable. For the major wheat-exporting countries, the model's forecasts were reliable for up to 35 per cent of the harvested area.
However, soybean and maize yields showed little predictability. Maize is a key crop across much of Africa and Latin America, suggesting more work is required to improve crop predictions for many developing nations.
But Chris Funk, a research geographer at the University of California Santa Barbara, United States, says these findings could still help the developing world mitigate at least some food price shocks.
"In most of the world, wheat and rice are the dominant food source for rapidly expanding populations of urban poor," he tells SciDev.Net. "These populations, who may spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food staples, are highly vulnerable to rapid price increases."
The model also showed varying predictive powers between regions and countries. For example, reliable crop predictions could only be made for three per cent of the harvested area of Thailand, the world's second-largest rice exporter.
"Even though these cropping predictions may not be perfect, they still have the potential to improve the efficiency of activities for ensuring food security in food-dependent countries," says Iizumi.
"This includes diversifying the countries from which food is bought, balancing combinations of imports and stockpiles of food, and prioritising emergency food imports."
Lindsay Stringer, director of the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds, United Kingdom, says that, while the information provided by predictions is helpful, the challenge for many African countries is putting it to good use.
"Focusing on food production is only part of the puzzle," she tells SciDev.Net. "There are also issues in terms of capacity gaps and institutional communication challenges. These cause problems in mobilising personnel and resources to act upon forecast information, and having necessary structures and processes in place to facilitate urgently needed action."
References
Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate1945 (2013)
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Titled :
The Weather Is Being Influenced By Evil Technology In The Hands Of (The
Robbers Of Our People) Those Who Want What We In Afrika Are Sitting On
WEATHER WARS
There is Technology Being Used By Countries Like China, Russia, America, And A Host Of Others To Manipulate The Weather.
Here’s A Question :
1) Why has Africa Suffered So Many Droughts ?
[http://www.weatherwars.info/ ]
2) Can this type of technology control developing hurricanes ?
3) Playing with weather stirs debate in China [ http://www.infowars.com/playing-with-weather-stirs-debate-in-china/ ]
4) HAARP - a device used to influence the weather -
[http://www.haarp.net/ ]
youtube videos WHO BROUGHT THE SLAVES TO AMERICA ?
FRITZ SPRINGMEIER The Top 13 Illuminati Bloodlines
WAKE UP !!! STAY UP !!!
[ www.libradio.net ]
[http://www.infowars.com]
[gcnlive.com]
Life Is A Game. Have Fun . Luke 18:17 - Isaiah 11:6
This Global Warming Stuff Is A Complete Hoax . Man has so arrogantly told
God, by inference, that God the Creator didn’t Create things quite right. The United
Nations is just another attempt by Satan to build another Tower of Babel .
If you want to know some real truth tune in to broadcasts like Living In Black
(Hosted By Keidi-Obi Awadu – via www.libradio.net) & Alex Jones’ Infowars broadcast
( via www.inforwars.com)
Here’s a link to articles on the Hoax of Global Warming.
1) [http://www.scroogle.org/cgi-bin/nbbw.cgi]
What is this hype of Global warming for ? It’s designed to give these phony
scientists ( who actually act like they were taking part in the Creation itself ) and the
organizations they represent control of the world’s natural resources. The GEORGIA
GUIDESTONES is consistent with United Nations goals for the world.
Here is a synopsis of the GEORGIA GUIDESTONES :
[The Agenda Of The Antichrist aka The Georgia Guidestones (GG) ]
THE GEORGIA GUIDESTONES
1) MAINTAIN HUMANITY'S POPULATION UNDER 500 MILLION IN
PERPETUAL BALANCE WITH NATURE
2) GUIDE REPRODUCTION WISELY —IMPROVING FITNESS AND DIVERSITY
3) UNITE HUMANITY WITH A LIVING NEW LANGUAGE
4) RULE PASSION — FAITH — TRADITION AND ALL THINGS WITH
TEMPERED REASON
5) PROTECT PEOPLE AND NATIONS WITH FAIR LAWS AND JUST COURTS
6) LET ALL NATIONS RULE INTERNALLY RESOLVING EXTERNAL DISPUTES
IN A WORLD COURT
7) AVOID PETTY LAWS AND USELESS OFFICIALS
8) BALANCE PERSONAL RIGHTS WITH SOCIAL DUTIES.
9) PRIZE TRUTH — BEAUTY — LOVE — SEEKING HARMONY WITH THE
INFINITE
10) BE NOT A CANCER ON THE EARTH — LEAVE ROOM FOR NATURE —
LEAVE ROOM FOR NATURE
In conclusion the directives for these GEORGIA GUIDESTONES call for : a) b) c) Elimination of around 7 billion residents d) e) f) Control of how many people are born g) h) i) The return of the system of ONE LANGUAGE as it was during the construction j) k) of the TOWER OF BABEL l) m) n) The other goals seem to infer that there isn’t currently a choice available to us that o) p) can help us to be better people. And there is a choice. q) r) s) But as the prophecy said in Daniel , The Beast/Antichrist will not allow any other t) u) worship, but of himself.
Global Warming and all this false human-directed unity is designed to appeal to our
personal pride , our lustful flesh and our unsatisfied eyes. But we can’t save our
selves. We children need OUR FATHER GOD to fight for us against our evil older
brethren Satan (formerly known as Lucifer) and His Fallen Followers.
CHECK OUT THIS EYE-OPENING VIDEO ON THE SCAM
SWINDLE OF GLOBAL WARMING
2) THE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING SWINDLE
- URL – [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMA6sszChwQ]
Revelations 11:18
And the nations were angry, and your wrath is here, and the time
of the dead, that they
should be judged, and that you should give reward to your
servants the prophets, and to
the saints, and them that fear your name, small and great; AND
SHOULD DESTROY THEM WHICH DESTROY THE EARTH.
3) Scientists Debunk UN “Global Warming”
[ http://www.infowars.com/scientists-debunk-un-global-warming/ ]
4) Gore cancels on Copenhagen lecture — leaves ticket holders
in a lurch
[ http://www.infowars.com/gore-cancels-on-copenhagen-lecture-leaves-tickethol ders-in-a-lurch/ ]
5) It’s Over, Al Gore.
[ http://www.infowars.com/its-over-al-gore/]
6) Rep. Miller Calls For Climategate Investigation
[http://www.infowars.com/rep-miller-calls-for-climategate-investigation/ ]
7) Climategate Crooks Recast Themselves As The Victims [ http://www.infowars.com/climategate-crooks-recast-themselves-as-the-victims / ]
:WHO BROUGHT THE SLAVES TO AMERICA ?
[ http://isohunt.com/torrent_details/42787621/Who+brought+the+slaves+to+ameri ca?tab=summary]
for full length video
FRITZ SPRINGMEIER A Bold Christian Truthseeker
The Top 13 Illuminati Bloodlines
[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k73Q2_f4vKU ]
WAKE UP ! STAY UP MY BROTHERS & SISTERS ! .
[ libradio.net ]
[http://www.infowars.com/infowars.asx]
[gcnlive.com]
- Life Is a Game. Have Fun. [ Luke 18:17 / Isaiah 11:6 ]
SO PLEASE WAKE UP MY BROTHERS AND SISTERS.
GOD IS ALL WE NEED.
You are In My Prayers.
God Bless Us.
God Bless Africa.