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It was the most anticipated political party registration in Nigeria since 1998, when the first set of three parties [APP, PDP and AD] were registered at the start of this Republic by the Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] then headed by Justice Ephraim Akpata, now deceased.
Since then, so many more political parties were registered that at one point there were 64 of them. Most of these were what Nigerians call brief case parties with only a few adherents, sometimes only one person tucking away the party's registration certificate in his briefcase. Up until the law was amended to end INEC's giving financial subventions to registered parties, that appeared to be the main attraction for registering brief case parties. Even after that manna from heaven ended, owners of brief case parties still hold them out as a fallback position for any aspirant who loses primary election contest in a major party but is intent on appearing on the ballot in the general election.
The All Progressives Congress [APC] that was registered yesterday was the first time since 1999 that registered parties in Nigeria would voluntarily give up their registered status and dissolve into a new party. Being uncharted territory, it was no surprise that controversy dogged every step of APC's registration process. The three component parties' merger committee initially made the mistake of going public with the merged party's proposed name before it filed a letter with INEC. This opened a window for some groups---most certainly sponsored by PDP leaders---to rush to INEC and attempt to steal the APC name. At one point there were four applications at INEC for the APC name, including the merging parties'. INEC managed to reject the applications of the three spoilers apparently because they acted in such haste that they made costly technical errors. One of them is still in court contesting the matter.
Rejection of the spoilers' applications did not however translate into immediate registration for the real APC. Even after the three applicants [plus an APGA faction] held separate conventions and ratified the merger, their application was held up at INEC until the 30 day limit mandated by the Electoral Act expired two days ago. This raised suspicions among APC's leaders that INEC was caving in to assumed PDP pressure not to register the mega opposition party. They even threatened to hold protest rallies in Abuja or to declare themselves registered.
All these ended in a shattering anti-climax yesterday when INEC announced APC's registration. A terse statement by the commission's outgoing secretary Abdullahi Kaugama said "The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has approved the application by three political parties - the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) - to merge into one, to be known as the All Progressives Congress. On considering the application, the Commission found that the applicant-parties have met all statutory requirements for the merger, and has accordingly granted their request. Consequently, the Commission has approved the withdrawal of the individual certificates of the applicant-parties, and the issuance of a single certificate to the All Progressives Congress."
There is bound to be much jubilation by APC leaders and their supporters in the next few days having scored this major legal and political victory by getting registered. They achieved a feat that opposition parties failed to achieve in the Second Republic when the then Federal Electoral Commission [FEDECO] refused to register the Progressive Peoples Party [PPP]. That party was touted as a merger of the Unity Party of Nigeria [UPN], a faction of the Great Nigeria Peoples Party [GNPP] and a faction of the Peoples Redemption Party [PRP]. FEDECO's action was widely believed to have been dictated by the ruling National Party of Nigeria [NPN] because it instead registered Tunji Braithwaite's small Nigeria Advance Party [NAP].
APC leaders must however end their celebrations soon and get down to the real business of achieving a merger on the ground. They must consolidate the structures of four parties and party factions into one at the Federal level, in each state and Abuja, as well as in every local government area and ward in Nigeria. This promises to be a task much harder than registration. It is not publicly known if APC leaders have already worked out a formula for this process. The most likely formula will be to concede leadership in each state, local government and ward to the component party that is currently the strongest in that area. In some cases this is apparent; in other cases it is not. ACN, for example, is clearly the dominant APC component throughout the Southwest as well as in Edo, Delta, Kwara, Kogi and Benue States while most of the Eastern states must be conceded to Governor Rochas Okorocha's APGA faction.
It is in the Northern states that a problem is likely to occur in disentangling areas of greater CPC versus ANPP influence. For example, ANPP controls the state governments of Borno, Yobe and Zamfara and only narrowly lost the governorship election in Kano. Yet, all those four states were won by CPC's General Muhammadu Buhari in the 2011 presidential elections. Similar issues must be untangled in states such as Adamawa between ACN and CPC components. Most media attention will however focus on the new party's formula for producing its national leaders. Right now, it has in place an interim leadership in which ACN produced the chairman, ANPP produced the secretary while CPC produced the treasurer, among others. APC leaders had tried to delay the issue of producing even this interim leadership, giving its potential for generating rancour, until INEC forced their hand by making it a registration requirement.
It will be interesting to see if APC leaders maintain this sharing formula when electing their substantive leaders. If its ACN component produces the substantive chairman, the inescapable conclusion by pundits will be that the party has zoned its presidential ticket to the North. This could well happen, given the current dynamics of Nigerian politics. What then will happen down the line? The most visible presidential aspirant in APC is former CPC leader General Muhammadu Buhari. In a recent interview with Sunday Trust, Buhari gave every indication that he will contest APC's presidential primaries with any other person who indicates an interest. Does he mean what he said? Buhari contested and lost three presidential elections in the last 10 years and he probably thinks a run under APC's ticket will give him the best chance ever. Besides, even if he has no intention of actually contesting, announcing it publicly at this point will disorganise APC in the North. Most of APC's Northern supporters could lose interest if Buhari is not in the race for president.
On the other hand, in case he is truly running, to allow an open-field contest such as Buhari suggested would be a dangerous gamble for APC. While Buhari could command millions of votes in a general election, he cannot win a primary contest unless there is a consensus by the other party components to support him. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu would play the biggest role here; but he would support Buhari only if he is convinced the traditionally bloc Yoruba voters will not rebel in the general election. Yet, if Buhari contests the primaries and is defeated, millions of Northern voters would most certainly desert the party at the polls. Therein lies the dilemma.
Everything considered though, the opposition parties have the best chance since 1999 to oust PDP from power at the federal level and in many states as well in the 2015 elections, if they play their cards right. The Jonathan Administration is quite unpopular with Nigerians right now. PDP as a whole has very low regard among Nigerians. Add to this the internecine conflicts; PDP's entire Southwest wing is alienated from the party while 5 important Northern governors are in open rebellion, as is Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi. Chances are that a big chunk of PDP could very well defect or be pushed out of the party before the 2015 elections. Still, it is a tricky act for APC to effectively cash in on all the PDP setbacks and marshal them towards a 2015 presidential election victory. Will APC be able to do that? We may not know the final answer until sometime in 2015.
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