Zimbabwe: Who Will Win the Byo Vote?

analysis

PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe's election carnival hit Bulawayo, the country's second largest city at the weekend as the veteran nationalist attempted to make inroads into a province that has eluded his ZANU-PF party for the past 13 years.

Held at White City Stadium, the same venue of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) led by Prime Minister (PM) Morgan Tsvangirai rally a week before, President Mugabe drew a large crowd at the stadium, confounding critics who thought he would be unable to draw a large crowd in the Matabeleland heartland.

The choice of White City Stadium appeared to have been deliberate as ZANU-PF sought to flex its muscles and show off its pulling power in the city.

Saviour Kasukuwere, ZANU-PF's deputy secretary for youth affairs, said the party had also been surprised by the overwhelming support and size of the crowd that turned out for the rally at the weekend.

"It's not something that we had expected but we are happy with the large turnout and support," said Kasukuwere.

In the previous elections, the MDC-T capitalised on the anger against ZANU-PF by the city's residents over the perceived marginalisation of the three Matabeleland provinces to establish the southern part of the country as its stronghold.

With elections scheduled for today, the two parties are certain to be locked up to the end in a bitter fight to control the three Matabeleland provinces if the packed crowds that turned out at both the ZANU-PF and the MDC-T rallies at White City Stadium are anything to go by.

President Mugabe struck a chord with his supporters by making promises to cancel all utility bill debts from February 2009 to date -- news that received a rapturous applause during his two-hour-long speech.

Political commentator, Khanyile Mlotshwa, however, said it was a safe bet that the Bulawayo province would again reject President Mugabe.

"Definitely, Bulawayo will be a battlefield between Welshman Ncube and PM Tsvangirai. ZANU-PF has no chance there," said Mlotshwa.

Ncube earlier this month entered into an alliance with Dumiso Dabengwa from ZAPU, a loose coalition which is widely seen as an attempt to increase his political stock in the three Matabeleland provinces.

Pedzisai Ruhanya, a political analyst, said the MDC-T's control of the Matabeleland vote and the high turnout at the party's rally two weeks ago was a factor that would boost the PM's winning margins.

"It has been argued and postulated that the failure by PM Tsvangirai and Ncube to form an electoral coalition ahead of the poll, could hurt the PM's chances of victory," said Ruhanya.

"The Bulawayo rally indicated that people have made a choice to give PM Tsvangirai a chance."

On Sunday, Ncube held his rally in Bulawayo at Stanley Square in Makokoba before taking his final election campaign trail to Victoria Falls on Monday.

Political observers are in agreement that that the jury will be out for the next government which would have to move swiftly and deal with the plethora of challenges that face Bulawayo.

Among these are the de-industrialisation of companies in the second city, water shortages and the prickly issue of devolution that has been a central theme from the provinces in the southern part of the country.

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