For the first time since President Goodluck Jonathan assumed power in 2010, I am on the same page with him: his fear for the year 2015, the year of the next general election in Nigeria, rhymes with my inner voice.
During a meeting with the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) last week, Mr Jonathan expressed his fear to the learned fellows; he stated the disturbing signs of what is ahead.
Unfortunately, Mr Jonathan has forgotten one reality: he is the cause and equally the solution to the looming political, social and economic crises. As the head of a country of 170m people with over 300 ethnic groups, he has shown more partisanship than any other leader in the history of Nigeria. His failure to unite the nation through the unity of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), his chosen political platform, has further entrenched discord among his party members. For now, PDP is the only party with broad-based Nigerians, a melting point of the good, bad and ugly people. In every corner of the country, the effect of the party is visible. And this is the reason 2015 could be the year of doom for Nigeria. In every corner, PDP members wrangle to unseat one another while at the same time wrestle to prevent a united front of the surging All Progressives Congress (APC) from hijacking the inevitable, looming change. Thank God that APC is now a registered party.
There is no way Nigeria will continue in this retrogressive direction. Change must come now or never. The heightened level of corruption under Mr Jonathan's government is a testimony to his weak leadership - a misdirected objective. It is absolutely disheartening to witness how Nigeria, in less than four years of Yar'Adua's demise, has crumbled to a futureless nation. The president's benevolent attitude to corruption has further inflamed the reckless nature of those in power who loot the nation's treasury with impunity. And those outside the corridor of power nurse, with nostalgia, the hope of getting a shot at the federal bounty someday.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is a relic of its past image. The agency is not to blame for inefficiency, since the government in power shields financial criminals from prosecution. The majority of those looting the nation are the president's acquaintances and his party members in government whose main objective is to save the PDP from losing the next election. Mr Jonathan cannot say he is unaware of how his kinsmen are battering the economy of the country.
To develop the four main airports, the president and his team of nine ministers had to travel to China to borrow $1.1 billion, half of which will be used for airport terminals' improvement. His government's failure to understand the necessity of privatising the airports by appealing to domestic investors has created another avenue for looters to eventually swallow the loan from China. Dangote Group, Adenuga Group and Tony Elumelu Foundation would have coughed out $1.1 billion with less international debt exposure.
Mr Jonathan is a president for the Ijaw people, his very few tribal clan. A united Nigeria may be too much for him to handle. Therefore, it might be more to his delight that northern Nigeria should perish in blood in the hands of the faceless Boko Haram-- the hard-to-define insurgents.
His leadership weakness has also brought to prominence the domineering character of his wife Patience, whose recent activities are, to some extent, more assertive than those of her husband. Maybe, she should run for the office of president in 2015.
The River State crisis is a prelude to what will emanate in 2015. It is an obvious sign of the breakdown of law and order, where an orchestrated political crisis to unseat an elected governor, because he expressed his future political interest, is at dissonance with the president's pre-set objectives. For that, Governor Amaechi has committed a grievous offence, and the state must be rendered lawless. Even the commissioner of police, a subordinate of the governor, has become the tool of disorderliness in the state. A parallel government is run from Abuja, and the state House members who stood on the path of truth are victims of Jonathan's overbearing dictatorship. Dame Patience migrated to Port Harcourt to fuel the crisis, possibly to pave way for her chosen disciple in 2015-- two long years from now. How will there be peace in 2015?
If President Jonathan is pragmatic enough, he should look within his domain; very few of those who brought him to power, the powerful northern elite members, are still with him. Many of them have either kept him in abeyance or have long departed from his camp. Those who pretend to shine along his path are either washouts with little political weight or are of no consequence in the scheme of things.
The diabolical plan to scuffle the registration of APC as a political party was definitely not to his advantage. And if, via manipulating, the PDP wins the 2015 presidential election, then, it is obvious that he will lose credence to a legitimate mandate.
Nigeria's economy is on a decline; the minister of finance has been drumming this tune to every Nigerian willing to listen. It is not surprising that the easiest route to wealth in the country is through political office -- where available public funds are stolen with ease. Everyone wants to be in government -- it's the most attractive business with very high yield or margin. The private sector is dead; the public sector must be milked to death also.
Therefore, the only route to a political office is either through active participation in politics as a dubiously elected person or by dubiously aiding an aspirant to win. There are those willing to sacrifice their lives and the lives of others to get their political lords into office. This is the crux of the matter. Democracy, as it is practised in civilised nations, does not need such a dangerous emblem.
In 2015, many people will die in the name of political rewards or compensations. At the peril of Nigeria, losers and winners will fight to destroy every fabric of the society. Sadly enough, the stage is set for an unsettled polity in 2015, and Mr Jonathan is aware.
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