21 April 2014

South Africa: Lies and Damn Lies - Which Trend Is Your Friend?


It's merely two weeks to election day and the air is soupy with polls and predictions and prognosticators. There are numbers everywhere, more than enough to cater for everyone's bias and wish-list. How should you remain objective when analysts keep springing up like mushrooms after the summer rain?

Most people believe that the ANC will lose support, the DA will gain support and the EFF might make it to third place on the log. By 'most people' I mean that I believe this to be the case. Remember to watch out for the author's bias (and if you don't like my numbers I have lots of other ones for you).

The table below summarises some facts about the last three national/provincial elections (1999, 2004 and 2009) and the last municipal election, held in 2011:

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