12 May 2014

Egypt: New Survey Confirms Al Sissi Likely Victor in This Month's Election, but Egyptians Say They Will Rise Again If Their Aspirations Are Not Met

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Egypt is due to hold presidential election on May 26-27, with former army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi tipped to win the poll. ( Resource: Egypt's Copts Hope Presidential Poll Will Provide Security

A recent survey undertaken by IDS and Al Karma confirms that former Commander-in-Chief, Field Marshall Al Sissi will be the likely victor of Egypt's presidential elections at the end of May.

However, over a third of respondents are "Undecided" and, while this is unlikely to influence election results, it will have a bearing on the moral and political legitimacy of the regime.

Respondent focus groups confirmed Al Sissi's popularity derived primarily from his intervention last summer when mass uprisings calling for the ousting of President Morsi erupted and he was Commander-in-Chief of Egypt's armed forces at the time.

While Egypt's youth has been so instrumental in its revolution, the survey shows that they are far from uniform in their views on the forthcoming election: while some feel disenfranchised with the current configuration of power, others openly state their support for Al Sissi.

The next Egyptian president will have to respond to key aspirations and concerns around:

Job creation

Security and personal safety

Tackling corruption and injustice

Lead researcher, IDS Fellow Mariz Tadros said "The indeterminacy of the current situation in Egypt should not deter us from making a genuine attempt to capture the pulse of the citizenry and make sense of it.

Although our findings confirm a majority of people support Al Sissi, they also show that over a third are still undecided. And perhaps, most significantly, almost 80 per cent say they would rise again if their aspirations are not met."

The survey was carried by IDS and Al Karma for Edutainment as part of wider work on analysing Egypt's political settlements.

Linked to the Addressing and Mitigating Violence programme, the report analyses the period from January 2011 to February 2014, which covers two regime ruptures and three political settlements, forged against a backdrop of increasing levels of violence.

Interactive infographic of IDS/Al Karma Survey data (also see below)

Download Taking Egypt's electoral pulse: an analysis of voter preferences prior to May 2014 elections (PDF)

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