Somalia's militant group, Al-Shabaab, has often defied its adversaries' claims that it is in decline. In recent months, however, the movement has suffered setbacks, including territorial losses, high-ranking commanders killed and defections. The Somali Federal Government (SFG) and its internal, regional and international allies need to be clear-sighted about the reasons for these, and what they can do to stop another Al-Shabaab recovery.
Al-Shabaab's set-backs - and fewer attacks by the movement during the Ramadan holy Muslim month of fasting than in previous years - are the result of three distinct and unrelated factors.
...