The ANC kicked off the week by celebrating its 106th birthday, but it could be a different organisation by the time its birthday rally comes around on Saturday. The ground is shifting to favour the party's new leadership, and President Jacob Zuma's late-night announcement on Tuesday that he'll be appointing a state capture probe is one sign of that. Then there is also news that two African presidents will, unusually, grace the former liberation movement's weekend celebrations. By CARIEN DU PLESSIS.

President Jacob Zuma's sometimes baffling grip on power isn't due to his chess skills or even his ability to see into the future. He takes extraordinary risks, and he's very lucky, an official close to him said in a private conversation on the sidelines of the ANC's conference last month. But even before the outcome of the leadership vote was known, the same official said Zuma was set to be out of the country's Presidency within the next year, no matter who won.

Zuma's boldness was apparent in another late night bombshell statement on Tuesday, when he announced he had decided to appoint a commission of inquiry into state capture, headed by Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo, as recommended...