Kenya: How Odinga Won on Day One of Demonstrations

Opposition leader Raila Odinga.
analysis

Nairobi — Despite futile attempts to access the Nairobi Central Business District and subsequently State House, Opposition Leader Raila Odinga still had his way in sending a message to President William Ruto's administration.

At least one person-a student at Maseno University- was shot dead during the Monday protests and dozens arrested including four leaders who were rounded up in Nairobi.

The day was characterized by chaos and looting that forced businesses to close down further threatening the already bleeding economy that is yet to recover from the Covid pandemic and election effect.

The fact that business was brought to a standstill in the commercial and administrative capital with and chaotic and violent scenes in one other town-Kisumu due to the demonstrations was a clear message to make the government uneasy.

Further, the move by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua urging the Azimio leaders to call off the demonstrations saying they are hurting the economy symbolized the unease by the government.

Gachagua said almost Sh2 billion in terms of business have been lost because of the lack of business.

"We want to urge these people to consider calling off the chaos and the intimidation this afternoon because what they are doing is destroying our economy. The events being shown by the opposition are not good for business and the economy," Gachagua said in Mombasa.

Ignoring the calls, Odinga declared weekly protests on Mondays as clashes erupted between police and supporters demonstrating over the country's cost-of-living crisis, electoral reforms and a victory he claims was stolen from him in August 2022 elections.

"Every Monday there will be a strike, there will be a demonstration," he told crowds of chanting followers in Nairobi. "The war has begun, it will not end until Kenyans get their rights," Odinga announced in Eastleigh after his convoy was teargassed outside Serena Hotel as he led supporters to town.

Business Standstill

Many businesses in Nairobi were shut ahead of the demonstrations, with some employers telling their staff to work from home.

There were chaotic scenes for the better part of the day in Nairobi, Kisumu where police fired teargas and deployed water cannons on protesters while arresting others.

Police also unleashed volleys of tear gas and water against a motorcade carrying Odinga, who had called for the day of action against Ruto's government over "skyrocketing" prices and last year's "stolen" election.

The mere fact that business was brought to a standstill for a whole day in the commercial city which not only serves the country but the East Africa Community was worrying.

Failure to which, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance promises to revive the economy will remain a mirage if at all the prolonged demonstration by the Azimio Coalition until their demands are met is anything to go by.

Over 60 percent of the country's GDP is generated in Nairobi County and hence the continuous demonstrations by the Raila Odinga-led coalition risk crippling the economy.

Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Leaders have told the government to prepare for a fiery demonstration in the coming days terming today's demonstration a mere 'curtain raiser'.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna scoffed at the police officers for provoking their supporters and interfering with the peaceful demonstrations.

"We are on a health break, in the afternoon we will be having phase two of the demonstration because we will never be cowed," Sifuna said.

"We will be issuing directions on future maandamanos because we must be allowed to conduct our mandate as the minority and the leadership in this country," he added.

Kasipul Kabondo MP Lilian Gogo criticized the police officers for disrupting the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition protest saying they will not relent on their cause for change.

"This is a test of it; we are going to do these as long as Baba says we fire. I want to empathizes of police officers harassing wananchi in civilians. We are fighting for you," said Gogo.

Illegitimate Public Holiday

Odinga's declaration that Monday would be a public holiday was subtly adhered to despite court declarations that it was illegal as the disruptive business environment made it impossible for the day-to-day activities.

Odinga has declared that Monday is a public holiday so that Kenyans can join his mass action.

The court had declared that Odinga does not have the power to declare special public holidays. Only the government can do that.

Building Momentum

The declaration by the ODM Leader that demonstrations will be held every Monday until all their demands are met is expected to set the momentum for the opposition's quest to remove President Ruto from power.

The five-time presidential candidate says he wants to reclaim their stolen supreme power after the August 2022 Presidential poll. He says he was the rightful winner, even though the Supreme Court ruled that Ruto won.

Odinga has declared that the Ruto administration is illegitimate, citing a whistleblower's data that he insists indicates he won last year's election by more than 2.2 million votes after garnering 8.1 million votes against Dr Ruto's 5.9 million.

But Ruto has told him off, saying "I will not be coerced into a handshake because that is Raila's game plan."

Chance for dialogue

President Ruto is finding himself in a tight spot trying to fix an economy that is yet to recuperate from the Covid-19 pandemic effects and last year's general election which slowed down the economy.

Kenyans are suffering from spiraling prices for fuel, electricity, and staple foods, as well as a slump in the value of the shilling against the US dollar and a record drought that has left millions hungry.

Until one of the leaders blinks first, the country's economy and stability is held hostage with both Ruto and Odinga having hard-line stand on holding a dialogue to solve the current stalemate.

The Head of State is accusing Raila of promoting impunity, with a clear agenda to destabilize his administration. He rubbished his opponents' demands, insisting that nothing will make him lose focus.

"You will not threaten this government with demonstrations," Ruto said.

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