Institute for Security Studies (Tshwane/Pretoria), 18 July 2013
One sometimes wonders if the Southern African Development Community (SADC) should not simply give up the time-consuming and unrewarding business of trying to resolve political crises in its member states.
But wait. SADC still has methods for dealing with the Madagascar crisis.
Threats and extortion. It worked in March 2009 when the pro-Rajoelina
military took over the downtown presidential palace "to hasten
Ravalomanana's departure"1 and the insurrectional justice minister
threatened him with arrest. After he was ousted, the international
community insisted that Marc Ravalomanana “really did resign!”, later
acknowledging that the coup d’état included the “threats and pressures
that pushed Ravalomanana to do what he did.”2
So now SADC is doing the same thing, threatening Lalao Ravalomanana and her
family with as-yet-unspecified sanctions unless she withdraws her
candidacy. It is classic extortion: “unless you do as we say, we will do
xxx to you, your family, your associates, and your business partners.”
If she yields to the threats, it will be said that she withdrew
“voluntarily” to quote from the International Contact Groups’s 7
point plan3, just as they still say that her husband “resigned”4 after
he yielded to the threats against him.
On 27 July 2012 Rajoelina’s security forces kicked Lalao Ravalomanana out
of Madagascar ensuring that she would not meet the 6-month residency
requirement before the filing date for candidates for president. The
international community and people like Peter Fabricius apparently consider
forced exile as a perfectly acceptable means to make Lalao Ravalomanana’s
candidacy illegal.
It is no wonder that people keep doing coups d’état in Africa: the
international community is ready to condone coups as a legitimate means to
get an elected president to “resign”. In the same way, threats and
extortion may work to get candidates that France doesn’t like (France was
first to object to Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy on 6 May5 and first to
announce sanctions against her on 10 June6) to withdraw their candidacies.
SADC may be down but it is not out. Threats and extortion could still
carry the day.
Tanzanian President Kikwete met with French President Hollande in Paris on
21 January 2013 to discuss the Madagascar crisis including the return of
Marc Ravalomanana. President Hollande is quoted as saying that he and
President Kikwete have "a complete convergence of views" with respect to
the Madagascar crisis1. Then, on 23 January 2013, French ambassador
Goldblatt announced French opposition to Marc Ravalomanana's return to
Madagascar prior to elections2. The logic is that this was agreed upon by
Presidents Kikwete and Hollande two days prior. France thus impeded full
application of the SADC Roadmap because Article 20 says “The High
Transition Authorities (HTA) shall allow all Malagasy citizens in exile for
political reasons to return to the country unconditionally, including Mr
Marc Ravalomanana.”
On 11 March, President Kikwete and Andry Rajoelina placed conditions on
Lalao Ravalomanana’s return to Madagascar including that she not organize
political rallies and saying that the length of her stay in her country was
contingent on the health of her mother3 thus violating her right to free
speech and Article 20 of the SADC Roadmap.
The evening of 3 May, the day that Rajoelina’s candidacy was approved by
the Special Electoral Court, he received a red-carpet reception4 and
photo-op session5 with President Kikwete in Dar es Salaam.
The international community has announced upcoming sanctions against
Malagasy people who impede the application of the SADC Roadmap6, but there
will not be sanctions for France and President Kikwete who have impeded the
application of Article 20 of the SADC Roadmap. Instead the international
community is calling for sanctions against Lalao Ravalomanana (France has
already announced that sanctions are in effect7), saying her candicacy is
illegal8, because she was not in her country when she should have been
because she was kicked out (on 27 July 20129).
Marc Ravalomanana was blocked from returning to Madagascar on 3 July
because “the Malagasy authorities, notably the current transitional
president Andry Rajoelina, are still opposed to his return.”10
The international community is now threatening sanctions against Lalao
Ravalomanana, her family, associates, and business partners unless she
withdraws her candidacy by 31 July11. If she gives in to the threats
against her, the international community will say that Lalao Ravalomanana
withdrew voluntarily12 similar to the way the international community
insisted that Marc Ravalomanana “resigned” when he gave in to the
threats that forced him from the presidency in the context of a coup
d’état (see above).
From the evidence above, it looks like France and SADC are involved in a
conspiracy to prevent a Ravalomanana from being a candidate for president
of Madagascar.
This is extortion (“if you don’t do what we want, we will do xxx to you
and your family”). It is slander (saying Lalao Ravalomanana’s
candidacy is illegal without presenting any evidence as to how her
candidacy violates any law). It is despicable. It is counter to democracy.
It will not help Madagascar get out of the crisis.
Southern Africa: Time for SADC to Admit Defeat in Madagascar as it Has, Effectively, in Zimbabwe
Institute for Security Studies (Tshwane/Pretoria), 18 July 2013
One sometimes wonders if the Southern African Development Community (SADC) should not simply give up the time-consuming and unrewarding business of trying to resolve political crises in its member states.
Comments Post a comment
SADC needs to declare victory and go home
But wait. SADC still has methods for dealing with the Madagascar crisis. Threats and extortion. It worked in March 2009 when the pro-Rajoelina military took over the downtown presidential palace "to hasten Ravalomanana's departure"1 and the insurrectional justice minister threatened him with arrest. After he was ousted, the international community insisted that Marc Ravalomanana “really did resign!”, later acknowledging that the coup d’état included the “threats and pressures that pushed Ravalomanana to do what he did.”2
So now SADC is doing the same thing, threatening Lalao Ravalomanana and her family with as-yet-unspecified sanctions unless she withdraws her candidacy. It is classic extortion: “unless you do as we say, we will do xxx to you, your family, your associates, and your business partners.”
If she yields to the threats, it will be said that she withdrew “voluntarily” to quote from the International Contact Groups’s 7 point plan3, just as they still say that her husband “resigned”4 after he yielded to the threats against him.
On 27 July 2012 Rajoelina’s security forces kicked Lalao Ravalomanana out of Madagascar ensuring that she would not meet the 6-month residency requirement before the filing date for candidates for president. The international community and people like Peter Fabricius apparently consider forced exile as a perfectly acceptable means to make Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy illegal.
It is no wonder that people keep doing coups d’état in Africa: the international community is ready to condone coups as a legitimate means to get an elected president to “resign”. In the same way, threats and extortion may work to get candidates that France doesn’t like (France was first to object to Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy on 6 May5 and first to announce sanctions against her on 10 June6) to withdraw their candidacies.
SADC may be down but it is not out. Threats and extortion could still carry the day.
1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7947381.stm 2. http://razafimahazo.free.fr/Descendants/ReporterMdvv_Arch2010/Arcmdvv100606 .htm 3.http://www.tananews.com/asides/communique-plan-en-sept-points-pour-sortir -le-processus-electoral-a-madagascar-de-limpasse/ 4. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/world-leaders-1/world-leaders-m/ma dagascar.html 5. http://appablog.wordpress.com/2013/05/06/madagascar-candidatures-a-lelectio n-presidentielle/ 6. http://www.voanews.com/content/france-will-not-recognize-madagascar-candida tes/1678686.html
A Grand Conspiracy Involving France and SADC
Tanzanian President Kikwete met with French President Hollande in Paris on 21 January 2013 to discuss the Madagascar crisis including the return of Marc Ravalomanana. President Hollande is quoted as saying that he and President Kikwete have "a complete convergence of views" with respect to the Madagascar crisis1. Then, on 23 January 2013, French ambassador Goldblatt announced French opposition to Marc Ravalomanana's return to Madagascar prior to elections2. The logic is that this was agreed upon by Presidents Kikwete and Hollande two days prior. France thus impeded full application of the SADC Roadmap because Article 20 says “The High Transition Authorities (HTA) shall allow all Malagasy citizens in exile for political reasons to return to the country unconditionally, including Mr Marc Ravalomanana.”
On 11 March, President Kikwete and Andry Rajoelina placed conditions on Lalao Ravalomanana’s return to Madagascar including that she not organize political rallies and saying that the length of her stay in her country was contingent on the health of her mother3 thus violating her right to free speech and Article 20 of the SADC Roadmap.
The evening of 3 May, the day that Rajoelina’s candidacy was approved by the Special Electoral Court, he received a red-carpet reception4 and photo-op session5 with President Kikwete in Dar es Salaam.
The international community has announced upcoming sanctions against Malagasy people who impede the application of the SADC Roadmap6, but there will not be sanctions for France and President Kikwete who have impeded the application of Article 20 of the SADC Roadmap. Instead the international community is calling for sanctions against Lalao Ravalomanana (France has already announced that sanctions are in effect7), saying her candicacy is illegal8, because she was not in her country when she should have been because she was kicked out (on 27 July 20129).
Marc Ravalomanana was blocked from returning to Madagascar on 3 July because “the Malagasy authorities, notably the current transitional president Andry Rajoelina, are still opposed to his return.”10
The international community is now threatening sanctions against Lalao Ravalomanana, her family, associates, and business partners unless she withdraws her candidacy by 31 July11. If she gives in to the threats against her, the international community will say that Lalao Ravalomanana withdrew voluntarily12 similar to the way the international community insisted that Marc Ravalomanana “resigned” when he gave in to the threats that forced him from the presidency in the context of a coup d’état (see above).
From the evidence above, it looks like France and SADC are involved in a conspiracy to prevent a Ravalomanana from being a candidate for president of Madagascar.
This is extortion (“if you don’t do what we want, we will do xxx to you and your family”). It is slander (saying Lalao Ravalomanana’s candidacy is illegal without presenting any evidence as to how her candidacy violates any law). It is despicable. It is counter to democracy. It will not help Madagascar get out of the crisis.
1 http://www.malango-actualite.fr/article/tanzanie__france-rencontre_hollande _kikwete-9366.htm 2 http://www.tananews.com/phrases/le-retour-de-marc-ravalomanana-ne-devrait-p as-avoir-lieu-avant-les-elections/ 3 http://www.madagate.com/politique-madagascar/dossier/3220-lalao-ravalomanan a-tel-mari-telle-epouse-a-la-maniere-de-dakar-i-et-ii.html 4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjSL8D5YJfU 5 http://www.madagate.com/politique-madagascar/dossier/3227-dar-es-salaam-and ry-rajoelina-recu-par-jakaya-kikwete.html 6 http://africanbrains.net/2013/07/01/7th-meeting-of-the-international-contac t-group-on-madagascar/ 7 http://www.voanews.com/content/france-will-not-recognize-madagascar-candida tes/1678686.html 8 http://africanbrains.net/2013/07/01/7th-meeting-of-the-international-contac t-group-on-madagascar/ 9 http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/2012/af/204137.htm 10 http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130703-madagascar-presidentielle-ravalomanana-r etour-pays 11 http://www.jeuneafrique.com/actu/20130713T163340Z20130713T163309Z/madagasca r-le-mediateur-donne-jusqu-a-la-fin-de-mois-aux-candidats-controverses.html 12 http://www.tananews.com/asides/communique-plan-en-sept-points-pour-sortir-l e-processus-electoral-a-madagascar-de-limpasse/