Washington, D.C. — The steady UN-supervised withdrawal of foreign troops from fighting fronts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and slowdown of rebel activities are seen as convincing signs that warring parties in the Congo are more willing to sit down and attempt to settle their differences using words instead of bullets.
"The organization of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue is critical now," says a senior Bush Administration official involved in efforts to find a solution to the Congo conflict. This dialogue, though agreed to as part of the Lusaka Accord on the DRC, has had difficulty getting off the ground over the past year.
In May, Congolese signers of the accord failed to agree on a declaration of principles for the dialogue. And later that month in Lusaka, rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba walked out of the Joint Military Commission meeting on Congo. DRC President Joseph Kabila has waxed hot and cold on dialogue.
Commenting on where the United States stands on the Congo conflict, the administration official described U.S. policy as one of "neutrality in this war. Our only interest is in termination of the war...We will never put ourselves in a position of making peace for others."
A claim of neutrality by the United States raises eyebrows among many observers and analysts. "It is obvious now that since the assasination of [Laurent] Kabila, the American government, like the western world, has taken the side of the young [Joseph] Kabila," says former University of Kinshasa professor Thierry Nlandu who is now in charge of the International Human Rights Law Group's democratic transition program in the DRC. "How can this administration speak of neutrality?" Nlandu wonders.
While stopping short of admitting bias, the administration official did acknowledge occupying a "difficult" position. "It is hard to recognize a government in power and then try to deal neutrally with rebel movements, because you're a government yourself."
And, warns professor Crawford Young of the University of Wisconsin, a long-time observer of the Congo, the U.S. should be careful of putting all of its eggs into one basket. "The [Bush administration's] assumption that this 29 or 30-year-old who has no political networks and who was not an effective military commander, can impose himself on this vast country seems impossible."
Says Nlandu, "We get the impression that he is kind of a puppet of the western world, generally speaking."
Analysts inside and outside of government agree that even if a ceasefire is secured, the difficult issue will be establishing a transition government. Whether the United States and other Western nations will use their influence to encourage Joseph Kabila to attempt to retain power or to step aside is still unclear. "To step aside would make him a great man," says Nlandu. He would be a "founder" of the new Congo, a "nation-builder."
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Nlandu, like almost every other person involved with the DRC, agrees that despite three years of war, the virtual total collaspe of infrastructure, and the central government hardly able to extend its reach beyond the suburbs of Kinshasa, Congo continues to exist as an idea and ideal if not in fact and reality. The DRC "is not a state," says Crawford Young. "Still, in a strange way to some degree it is a nation. Everyone has some level of attachment to the idea that this is one country; everyone agrees that there should be a Congo."
"Even if you look at the movement of older rebel leaders like Bemba," says Nlandu, "he is not willing to stop in the northern part of Congo; he wants to reach Kinshasa."
The peace process may make the Congo idea a concrete reality says Nlandu. "I can't be pessimistic. I live in the country."
