Washington, DC — A "system of semi-military command centers" has been set up at both national and provincial levels in Zimbabwe in order to ensure victory for President Robert Mugabe in forthcoming presidential elections next month, according to Mark Chavunduka, editor of the independent Zimbabwe Standard newspaper.
He says the structures group representatives from the army, the police, the Central Intelligence Organization, Zanu-PF Youth and the militias: "Basically what they are doing is mobilizing, through violence, support for Zanu-PF in the forthcoming elections."
Zimbabwean political scientist Eliphas Mukonoweshuro agrees and claims "some 18,000 soldiers in civilian clothes...are campaigning on behalf of the ruling Zanu-PF party"; he describes the system as "an official infrastructure of violence that permeates all the corners of Zimbabwe," making free and fair elections impossible.
Mukonoweshuro, a professor at the University of Zimbabwe, Harare, and Chavunduka, who was tortured and put on trial for treason in January 1999 for reporting that military officers were plotting a coup, arrived in the United States this week to press for increased governmental and non-governmental pressure on Zimbabwe's government.
President Robert Mugabe faces a challenge on March 9-10 from Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a bitter political battle which has seen a rising tide of violence and a disastrous economic collapse. While Zanu-PF sees the battle in terms of an argument over whether agricultural land should be taken from white farmers and given to black Zimbabweans, the MDC and other critics say the land issue is being used by President Mugabe to whip up support and justify dubbing his opponents 'neo-colonialists'.
Both Chavunduka and Mukonoweshuro were sharply critical of legislation, passed by the Zimbabwe parliament Thursday, that tightens government control over media and specifically prohibits criticism of President Robert Mugabe. "There can't be a fair election where one of the candidates is immune from criticism," says Chavunduka. "How can any other candidate present his credentials without attacking what he perceives to be the shortcomings of the incumbent?"
They expressed disappointment with the response of regional governments in Southern Africa. There has been "mind-boggling solidarity" with the Mugabe government, said Mukonoweshuro. South Africa in particular has been "a major disappointment."
Asked why President Mbeki was reluctant to pressure Zimbabwe, Mukonoweshuro suggested that he might fear a "demonstration effect".
Confronted by a powerful trade union confederation in Cosatu and a former labour leader with strong grassroots support like Cyril Ramaphosa waiting in the wings, Mukonoweshuro argues, Mbeki may not want to do anything that would help the MDC, which is itself headed by a workers' leader with strong union support: "I think it is in Mbeki's interest that the alternative in the offing in Zimbabwe is not viable," Mukonoweshuro said.
The failure of Commonwealth foreign ministers meeting in London Wednesday to suspend Zimbabwe also angers the two men. "I think the Commonwealth is a toothless bulldog," says Mukonoweshuro. Commonwealth ministers have expressed the hope that there is still a chance for a valid election. But Mukonoweshuro says this is wishful thinking.
"We are seeing a militarisation of the election campaign structure," he says: "What is in place is not civilian structures but military command structures; for the opposition to penetrate the rural areas, it would have to meet those structures with similarly militarized structures. And of course you are describing a civil war if that happens."
So is the MDC preparing to respond that way?
No, he says, it is not. "They don't have the resources and they don't believe in violent confrontation of that nature. But of course, the patience of ordinary civilians on the ground is wearing thin. You know, they are beginning to organize now to resist so that their neighbourhoods are not terrorised by these state sponsored thugs."
Mukonoweshuro and Chavunduka claim there is considerable dissatisfaction with Mugabe within his own party. But they believe that it is not the elected party politicians who are driving policy. "It is the non-elected [directly appointed] MPs who have been made ministers [without] any democratic credentials - the minister of information, of agriculture, of justice; those are the people now with Mugabe's ear," says Mukonoweshuro. "They do not have any other constituency except Mugabe himself and they remain in power at Mugabe's pleasure."
But if other elements in the party are not happy with the present course of events, why aren't they speaking out? Professor Mukonoweshuro believes ministers in the government are fearful about how they would fare under a new political dispensation, having enriched themselves in office. "A new government coming to power might not necessarily pursue these people but that doesn't stop civilians from seeking justice in the courts."
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The army too has "benefited immensely from Mugabe's patronage," adds Chavunduka, particularly from business dealings in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But, he believes, they too realize he is a liability. All the army wants, Chavunduka says, is a guarantee that there will be no retribution against Mugabe should he lose the election.
Chavunduka and Mukonoweshuro describe the immediate future as "frightening".
"As long as Mugabe will have stolen the election and declares himself the president of Zimbabwe it will be a contested legitimacy. We are likely to see chronic instability, untold suffering, substantial departure of skilled manpower; we are likely to see the country being reduced to the level of peasant subsistence." said Mukonoweshuro.
What both men hope is that the U.S. and the international community can "find appropriate methods of engaging the Zimbabwe government to stop the catastrophe that is likely to happen in the event of a contested election." Specifically, they are backing the recently approved "smart sanctions" targeting high-level Zimbabwe officials. "It is much better than imposing blanket sanctions on Zimbabwe."
